People survey the damage after the shelling of a shopping center in Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 21. (Efrem Lukatsky/AP)
Russia’s war in Ukraine is nearing the one-month mark and its troops’ advances in some key cities, including the capital Kyiv, appear to have slowed.
So where is this war going? Here are five things to watch out for in the coming weeks.
1. Russia could intensify its bombing campaign
Experts warn that the more Russia is hit on the ground, the more likely it is to step up its aerial bombing campaigns and use of other “standoff” weapons that put Russian soldiers at less risk.
There is no reliable information from either Ukraine or Russia on the death toll, but a report in a Russian tabloid on Monday suggested the Russian side had lost nearly 10,000 soldiers and injured another 16,000.
The website Komsomolskaya Pravda removed the numbers later in the day, claiming the numbers appeared in the first place because they were hacked. CNN couldn’t verify the numbers, but the death toll is closer to what US intelligence agencies say.
Such casualties, if true, would explain both the cessation of ground movements and the surge in air raids on key cities and other long-range attacks.
2. While the focus is on Kyiv, Russia may try to encircle Ukrainian fighters to the east
There is much talk of the Russian war effort being stalled, but whether that is true or not depends primarily on what Moscow’s goals were.
It is likely that Russia will at least try to take over parts of eastern Ukraine. Territories like Donetsk and Luhansk that make up the Donbass region have been controlled by Russian-backed separatists since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, and while Russia’s ambitions extend beyond the Donbass, it’s likely still a key focus, experts say.
“The Southern Military District – in Donetsk, Luhansk, Mariupol, Berdyansk, Melitopol – these are the best troops in the Russian army. And they always work as an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, CNN said.
3. There is more talk about conversations
One scenario is that the Ukraine war could turn into a protracted conflict. Russia is likely to have lost a significant number of soldiers, weapons and equipment in the war, and while it has been involved in protracted conflicts in the past, it will not want to leave it with a completely devastated military.
“Negotiations are the only area where things are looking a little bit promising because both Russia and Ukraine have said over the past week that they are moving towards actual substantive discussion rather than just Russia issuing an ultimatum,” said Keir Giles, a Russia expert at UK-based think tank Chatham House, told CNN.
Russian officials have said their demands include Ukraine dropping its attempt to join NATO, demilitarizing and adopting “neutral” status, as Austria and Sweden have done. But the terms of what that means for Ukraine would have to be negotiated.
4. There could be mass “deportations” of Ukrainians to Russia. This is worrying
Russia has told residents of the southern city of Mariupol to leave as it carries out an aggressive airstrike that has blown the city to pieces. Its forces have opened so-called “humanitarian corridors” to allow civilians to flee, but tens of thousands of them have been transported to Russia.
The Russian state media organization RIA Novosti reported that nearly 60,000 residents of Mariupol had reached Russian territory “in complete safety”. Russian media have shown convoys of vehicles apparently heading east toward the border some 40 kilometers from Mariupol.
But the Mariupol Council accused Russia of forcing residents to go to Russia against their will.
Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boichenko said that “what the occupiers are doing today is familiar to the older generation, who saw the terrible events of World War II, when the Nazis forcibly captured people.”
5. Millions more Ukrainians could flee and tear a nation apart
The fate of war is one thing, but the fate of Ukraine is another.
More than 3.5 million Ukrainians have already left the country. Most are women and children, meaning families are being torn apart as well. The war triggered the largest refugee movement in Europe since World War II. These numbers are increasing by about 100,000 people every day.
If you include the number of internally displaced persons, 10 million Ukrainians have now left their homeland. That’s almost a quarter of the country’s population.
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