More than 92 million Mexicans are called to vote this Sunday to support or oppose Presidential Deputy Andrés Manuel López Obrador in a trial that has been preceded by months of controversy.
It is an unprecedented exercise in the country that continues to raise doubts, promoted by the President himself and opposed by the National Electoral Institute (INE), the arbiter of the elections – previously known as the Federal Electoral Institute. facilitated the change of power in Mexico after 70 years of Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) governments.
Referring to the measure, which commemorates the recall of Venezuelan Hugo Chávez in 2004, López Obrador has insisted that it is the people “that put in and that takes away”. “I will submit to revocation and people will decide whether they want me to continue or resign,” the president said.
Everything indicates that the well-accepted president will manage to withstand the attrition and gain the “validation” that will allow him to remain in office until 2024, which the Mexican constitution already granted him.
The opposition refused to hold the referendum on the grounds that it violated electoral laws
In the event that the consultation is lost, the Magna Carta provides that Sergio Gutiérrez Luna, President of the Chamber of Deputies, would take over the post on an interim basis. After thirty days, Congress itself would appoint a successor to complete the mandate.
For example, Article 60 of the Law on the Revocation of the Federal Mandate states that López Obrador would cease to be President of Mexico once the electoral tribunal issued its declaration, as long as the population chooses the path of revocation.
To do this, at least 40% of the people registered in the election count must take part in the procedure supported by the authorities. For its part, the opposition refused to hold the referendum on the grounds that it violated electoral laws and went on to stress that it is “manipulating an instrument created to remove corrupt leaders.”
López Obrador has pledged that to commemorate the anniversary of the death of the Mexican revolutionary, he will write “Viva Emiliano Zapata” on his ballot, which would automatically annul the vote. “I can’t vote for one or the other. But I have to vote. A Democrat always has to have a say when it comes to making decisions,” he explained.
The Supreme Court, the country’s highest court, concurred with López Obrador in late 2021, ordering referendum preparations to continue with the approved budget, despite criticism warning that a deportation exercise could “turn into an act of ratification,” which could result in the consultation losing its true purpose and purpose.
The dispute over the revocation of the presidential mandate revolves around the INE and the country’s authorities. This relationship dates in large part to the establishment of the institute itself and to regulations prohibiting political parties from requesting the referendum themselves.
The law, passed in September 2021, prevents officials from broadcasting messages to solicit a vote for or against the repeal, and even soliciting their request, prompting electoral authorities to take precautionary measures against senior government officials and leaders of the ruling Morena party to take for calls in favor of holding the referendum.
The polls show that about 27% of the population will attend the appointment, although the minimum required for a binding result is 40%.
The tensions therefore stem from the preparations for the process: the government accuses the INE of boycotting the consultation, while some members of the organization accuse Morena of having “violated its legitimacy”. Earlier, the INE had claimed it lacked the necessary budgets, while the government and Congress refused to implement budget increases.
While some advisers called for the case to be dropped, Morena MPs called for them to be tried for allegedly “attacking” the rights of Mexicans. Finally, the Supreme Court decided not to increase the budget for the consultation, but justified the reduction of the voting centers for the development of the referendum.
Although popular support for López Obrador has fluctuated over the months, the percentage of the population that supports his mandate being revoked remains around 30%. In this sense, most polls give the Morena leader a support of more than 50%, which would allow him to remain in office.
However, the main obstacle that the consultation might encounter is the lack of participation. Polls show that around 27% of the population will attend the appointment, although the minimum required for a binding outcome is 40%.
On the other hand, around 52% of those who do not think the consultation is even necessary, compared to 42% who support it.
With the data on the table, defenders of the consultation, like Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, emphasize that it is a “democratic exercise at the service of the people,” while the dissenting voices point to a new movement, a “bigger one provoke polarization” and reinforce the President’s image.
In this way, it was precisely the supporters of López Obrador who remained in office who worked to carry out the consultation, which, if dissolved, could plunge Mexico into a scenario of instability with the “yes” to the revocation in search of a consensus on the choice of one new president.
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