This Sunday, the (13-19) Los Angeles Lakers travel to Dallas, TX to take on the (17-16) Dallas Mavericks on Christmas Day. Tipoff will be at 2:30 p.m. EST at the American Airlines Center. This will be the first time these two teams will meet this season as I am expecting a fight this season!
The Los Angeles Lakers come into this game after losing 134-130 to the Charlotte Hornets. They struggled on the defensive end of the court as they need to pressurize more shooters in this game if they want to challenge the Mavs on the street.
The Dallas Mavericks enter this matchup after defeating the Houston Rockets 112-106. The Mavs looked great on the defensive end of the court, only allowing the Rockets to shoot 30.8% from behind the arc. They’ll still have to contest fringe shots if they’re going to take care of business at home.
This game was written/released before last night’s results.
Can the Lakers show up on Christmas Day?
The Los Angeles Lakers currently sit 13th in Western Conference standings, 7.5 games behind first-placed Denver Nuggets. On offense, they’re averaging 115.7 points per game and shooting 47.8% from the floor. This is the sixth highest score per competition and the eighth highest team shooting rate. According to dunksandthrees.com, Los Angeles has an adjusted offensive rating of 111.3, which is the 24th highest rating in the NBA. Lebron James continues to lead offense as he scores 27.1 points per game from 49.3% of the field. Unfortunately, the Lakers weren’t as impressive behind the arc. They shot from deep just 33.6%, which is the 26th-highest percentage of three-pointers in the league. Luckily they took care of business at the charity strip. The Lakers have 79.5% of their shots on the Stripe, which is the team’s ninth-highest percentage of free-throw shooting. You can’t miss out on these free basket views and still expect to win these games.
At the defensive end of the court, the Lakers struggled to apply enough pressure to stop their opponents. They are currently allowing 117.8 points and their opponents have shot 47% from the ground. This is the 26th lowest score per competition and the 16th lowest shooting percentage allowed. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Lakers have an adjusted defense rating of 113.6, which is the 18th lowest rating in the NBA. Los Angeles has struggled to consistently deny close-in shots, but their outside defense has saved them at various times. They force their opponents to shoot 34.8% from behind the arc, which is the 8th lowest legal three-point shot percentage in the league. Los Angeles also snags 44.8 rebounds per game, which is the seventh most.
Injury Report: Anthony Davis PF (foot), Cole Swider PF (foot) and Juan Toscano-Anderson SF (ankle) are listed as out. Thomas Bryant C is listed as Day-to-Day.
Can the Mavs get hot at Christmas?
The Dallas Mavericks currently sit in eighth place in the Western Conference standings, four games behind first-placed Denver Nuggets. On offense, they’re averaging 111 points per game and shooting 46.5% from the floor. This is the 23rd highest score per competition and the 20th highest team shot percentage. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Mavs have an adjusted offensive rating of 114.4, which is the ninth-highest rating in the league. Luka Doncic continues to lead at the offensive end of the court as he scores 32.8 points per game on 49.7% shots from the field. Dallas has also shown they can consistently score inside the paint or from the outside as they shoot 35.9% from behind the arc. This is the 14th highest three point shooting percentage as they can score from anywhere on the floor. Unfortunately, the Mavericks didn’t take advantage of their free looks at the charity strip. They made 74.1% of their shots on the stripe, which is the 26th-highest team free-throw percentage in the NBA.
At the defensive end of the floor, the Mavs are yielding 109.4 points per game and their opponents have shot 48% from the floor. This is the second highest shooting percentage allowed and the 23rd most points given. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Mavs have an adjusted defensive rating of 112.2, which is the 10th lowest rating in the NBA. The Dallas Mavericks have also shown that they will consistently deny shots from behind the arc. They force their opponents to shoot from depth 35.9%, which is the 15th lowest allowable three-point shooting percentage. The Mavs have also snagged 38.8 rebounds per game, which is the lowest in the NBA. They need to shatter the offensive and defensive glass if they want to challenge the Lakers at home.
Injury Report: Reggie Bullock SF (neck), Dorian Finney-Smith PF (hip) and Jaden Hardy G (back) are listed as questionable. Josh Green SG (elbow) and Maxi Kleber (hamstring) are missing.
Best bets for this game
Full Game Side Bet
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I like the Dallas Mavs (-8.5) at home against the Los Angeles Lakers because they have the advantage on the court defensively. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Mavericks have the 10th lowest adjusted defensive rating and submit the sixth lowest total per game. Los Angeles will also be without Anthony Davis in this game as Lebron James has to carry the load on offense. I don’t see this working as the Mavs will be getting consistent stops throughout this game and will be scoring efficiently. Doncic was on fire the last time he was on the ground as he scored 50 points against the Rockets. He will stay hot in this game and dominate at the offensive end of the pitch. Dallas also has the ninth highest adjusted offensive rating, according to dunksandthrees.com. The Lakers have been terrible on the defensive end of the court as they won’t be consistently holding off the Mavs throughout this game. They give up the 26th most points per game and have the 18th lowest adjusted defensive rating. They won’t get enough stops and the Mavericks will slowly retreat.
Choose the Mavericks and place the points (-8.5) on Christmas Day!
Prognosis: Dallas Mavericks -8.5
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Overall selection for the entire game
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I like the over (229.5) in this duel as both teams will score consistently in this game. The Lakers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league as Dallas will consistently score. According to dunksandthrees.com, Los Angeles has the second highest adjusted pace rating in the league as they will be efficient in putting the ball on court during this game. This will lead to more shot attempts as each of these teams will have many opportunities to get that total over the number. Los Angeles also has the sixth-highest points per game and they have the eighth-highest team shooting percentage. They’ll be able to score in this Dallas defense and do their part to bring that total over the number. However, the Lakers have stunk defensively. They concede the 26th most points per game and their opponents shot from the ground 47%. Luka and the Mavs will consistently attack the basket and score throughout this game.
Take the over (229.5) and expect a fun, score-heavy game on Christmas Day!
Prognosis: Over 229.5
Written by Mason Folz, “Mason Folz”
Mason graduated from the University of Colorado, Boulder, and was watching SportsCenter before he could walk. He’s been crunching numbers since he learned to count, and nothing in this world makes Mason happier than talking about sports unless he’s on the golf course! We are delighted to have added Mason to our team at StatSalt, and you will be too. Let’s win some money!