Brazil
President Lula (PT) begins 2024 with several challenges in the National Congress and is threatened by parliamentarians who are trying to impose serial defeats on the executive branch.
Two of the government's main tasks should be to maintain the PT's veto of the LDO (budget directive law) and to pass the MP (interim measure), which provides for the gradual repayment of payrolls until 2027. There are other measures Strengthening the Union's cash flow this year is a priority for Minister Fernando Haddad (Finance).
Both the LDO and MP veto over recharging have a direct impact on budget execution and government revenue. The members of the Palácio do Planalto are still outlining the strategy to be used, but they know that they will have to make concessions on the amendments to ensure the support of parliamentarians for the vetoes.
For now, the idea is to delay voting on vetoes as much as possible so that the government can buy time in the negotiations and also show parliamentarians that the amendments will be published at the pace they want in the 2024 election year.
When it comes to payroll reimbursement, the government must first argue with parliamentarians that if the MP is not approved. .
According to a minister SheetThe MP was only released because the government has no choice but to go to court to overturn the law passed by Congress in December.
This argument could be used to try to convince Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSDMG) not to return the measure and let it be dealt with in Congress.
Pacheco is under pressure from parliamentarians to return the MP, which in practice nullifies Minister Haddad's proposal to increase taxes in the sectors where most employees work. The Senate president plans to bring together top leaders from both chambers of Congress next week to define the future of the measure.
In addition, the government will also explain to members of Congress that it has until April 1 to discuss the MP before its effects take effect and the tax exemption law is repealed.
The MP was published in the last week of December, but the government set a deadline of 90 days for the impact to take effect. The aim is to avoid legal issues. The law stipulates that when new taxes are introduced, a notice period of 90 days must be observed for them to come into force.
Until April, the payroll relief will continue to apply to 17 benefiting sectors of the economy under the conditions approved by the National Congress.
Among the sectors is communication, which includes Grupo Folha, the company that publishes the Sheet. Also covered are footwear, call centers, clothing and apparel, construction, construction companies and infrastructure work, among others.
Another dispute between Planalto and Congress, which is likely to intensify at the beginning of the year, concerns the dispute over the implementation of parliamentary amendments. Lawmakers approved setting a schedule for disbursement of these funds to representatives and senators, limiting the executive branch's control over these resources.
However, the representative vetoed the measure and also prohibited the obligation to pay until June 30 for the changes in the fundtofund modality, in which the funds are transferred directly from the Union to the entities of the Federation in the fields of health and social assistance flow.
Since these are resources that directly benefit parliamentarians, the government is convinced that extensive negotiations will take place on this issue in order to reach consensus with Congress and thus avoid defeat.
Government organizers expect the Senate to play an important role in supporting the government on this issue. In order to override vetoes, a majority is required in both chambers. Therefore, if negotiations with the senators are successful, it would be possible to guarantee Planalto a victory.
Another point that the government believes will cause great difficulties relates to vetoes against the project, which is intended to make the use of pesticides in the country more flexible.
The text approved by Congress in November, dubbed “Poison PL” by environmentalists, centralized the registration of new products at the Ministry of Agriculture and divested the responsibilities of Anvisa (National Health Surveillance Agency) and Ibama (Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Energy). Natural resources).
By vetoing this point, Lula is attempting to restore the tripartite regulatory model for pesticide registration and control, a type of structure also followed by regulators in other countries.
According to government members, the veto prevents environmental and health assessments from being carried out exclusively by the Ministry of Agriculture without technical knowledge of risk analysis.
However, since it is one of the most important banners of the rural group, one of the strongest in Congress, the administration believes that it will not be easy to maintain the veto.
Another point of conflict between the Lula government and the legislature recently was the time frame for the delimitation of indigenous territories, which was approved in September with the coordination of the Land Council committee. The president vetoed the bill, but Congress overrode the veto in December.
The PT turned to the STF to seek the repeal of the law as the court had previously deliberated on the matter.
Last year, Lula opened space on the Esplanada for names nominated by the center to facilitate dialogue with the legislature. André Fufuca from the PP in the sports sector and Silvio Costa Filho from the Republicans in the ports and airports department became ministers in September. However, the initiative had limited impact on relations with members of Congress.