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BRASILIA, April 19 (RHC) – Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appears today with a 70 percent chance of winning Brazil’s next election, according to Eurasia Group, the world’s largest political risk analysis consultancy.
Despite the improvement in far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro’s reading of government rating polls, the consultancy is sticking to Lula’s preference for October’s vote. The study is based on the results of the executive evaluation surveys of 12 institutes published between May 2020 and April of this year.
According to the study, Eurasia says that Bolsonaro’s chances of re-election rose from 20 to 25 percent at the time, but without changing forecasts of a 70 percent victory for the Labor Party founder.
For the consultant, approval ratings and the issues that matter most to voters are more relevant than voting intentions.
“Voters don’t think about the elections,” says the report, which was signed by the group’s executive director for the Americas, Christopher Garman, and eight other staff members.
According to Valor Economico newspaper journalist Lilian Venturini, Lula’s percentage remains unchanged because the Eurasia survey’s probability of a so-called third-way candidate being elected has dropped from 10 to 5.0 percent.
The leadership of the Unión Brasil party recently rejected the nomination of former judge Sérgio Moro for the presidential election. There are also no signs of progress with the pre-candidate Joao Doria from the Brazilian Social Democratic Party; and Simone Tebet from the Brazilian Democratic Movement.
Former governor Ciro Gomes remains in third place but far from the results of Lula and Bolsonaro.
The ex-military would only have a real chance of re-election if his appearance in the Planalto Palace (seat of the executive) was approved by more than 40 percent of the voters, the renowned advisory group estimates.
Polls show that Lula could win in the first round and would beat all of his opponents in a possible second round. Based in New York, Eurasia regularly produces reports warning of political risks to the financial system. (Source: Latin Press).