(Infographic: Marcelo Regalado)
Still 15 days second round of voting in Brazil between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Y Jair Bolsonaro. And with the rhythm of the election campaign, Brazilian pollsters update their surveys week after week.
Looking at their performance in the first round, the consultants refine their methodology in order not to fail. On the eve of the Oct. 2 vote, former left-wing President Bolsonaro overtook the polls by up to 14 percentage points in voting intentions. But the difference in the elections was significantly smaller: Lula received 48.4%, within error, while the far-right president got 43.2%, far from the maximum of 37% attributed by reputable institutes in previous months.
In the last 24 hours they met four polls with a view to the vote of Brazil.
According to pollsters Datafolha, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) continues to lead with 49% of total votes, compared to 44% for current President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
The institute polled 2,898 people in 180 cities from Thursday (13th) to Friday (14th) in a survey commissioned by Folha and TV Globo and registered with the TSE (Supreme Electoral Court) under number BR-01682/2022.
There is 1% undecided and 5% white and zero. A week ago the politician had 49%, the president 43%, 2% didn’t know who to vote for and 6% didn’t want to vote for anyone.
With the error rate Lula can have anywhere from 47% to 51% of the total votes, which includes zero, blank, and undecided votes. Bolsonaro, from 42% to 46%.
Former Brazilian President and presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva attends a campaign event in Recife, Pernambuco state, Brazil, 14 October 2022 (Portal)
The elevation of Research Institute of Paranáconducted with face-to-face interviews and released yesterday, shows the former President Lula with 51.9% valid voting intentions (where spaces, zeros and ties are excluded) and the President Bolsonaro with 48.1%.
The poll was commissioned by Progressistas, a party that is part of Bolsonaro’s coalitionhas an error margin of 2.2 percentage points plus or minus.
This was Paraná Research’s first poll for the second round of the presidential palace race. The institute heard 2,020 voters between October 8 and October 12. The survey is registered with the TSE under number BR-08438/2022.
According to the research of future intelligence, on behalf of Modal Bank, published on Friday 14. Lula da Silva has 46.9% of the total voting intentions and President Jair Bolsonaro has 46.5%.
The survey’s margin of error, which is 2.2 percentage points higher or lower, There could be a technical tie between the candidates.
Jair Bolsonaro in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais state, Brazil, October 14, 2022 (Portal)
The poll report did not include an official estimate of the valid votes, i.e. without counting the blank and invalid votes (this is the count used by the Supreme Electoral Court to declare the winner as the blank and invalid votes are not counted). . counting). Only the percentage of total votes was announced.
For the survey, between October 3rd and 4th, 2,000 people were questioned using the CATI method (computer-aided telephone interview). The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points for a 95% confidence level. The survey was registered with the Supreme Electoral Court under number BR-06280/2022
Finally the investigation of Atlas Institutesigned by Intel and also announced yesterday shows this the former president would triumph in the second ballot with the 52.4% valid voting intentions while the President would receive 47.6%.
The margin of error for this research is about one percentage point. This is the institute’s first survey for the second round.
The Atlas survey will be conducted with random collection through an electronic questionnaire and then stratification of the sample results “according to the characteristics of the national electorate,” explains the research report, available on the TSE website.
For the survey, 4,500 interviews were collected from October 8th to 12th via a structured questionnaire on the Internet in 1,483 communities. According to the institute, the confidence level is 95%. The survey has been registered with the TSE under number BR-06012/2022.
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