The Arizona Diamondbacks selected veteran left-hander Madison Bumgarner Thursday after a poor start to the season. Unless a surprising trading partner emerges from the mist, the Diamondbacks will soon be obliged to release Bumgarner. At that point, they’re left for the $30+ million remaining in his contract (which runs through next season) while he can sign with whichever club will have him.
Bumgarner, 33, used to be considered an above-average starting pitcher. His postseason exploits as a member of the San Francisco Giants even added an extra touch to his whole business. He couldn’t make good the $85 million investment the Diamondbacks made in him: In 69 career starts with Arizona, he compiled a 5.23 ERA, good for an 80 ERA+. In four starts this season, he had a 10.26 ERA and amassed more walks than strikeouts.
There are two natural follow-up questions worth investigating in light of the news: does Bumgarner have anything left to offer, and which teams might be forced to check in with him? (Remember, he’s only owed the prorated league minimum going forward.) Here at CBS Sports, we’ve chosen to answer both parts. Scroll slow with us, huh?
1. What’s left in the tank?
Apparently not much.
When a team looks at a struggling pitcher, they often try to emphasize their strengths and hide their weaknesses. This can take many forms. It could mean encouraging the pitcher to pitch their best offer more often. Alternatively, it could mean that the catcher gives the universal aim so the pitcher doesn’t have to worry about finding the outside corner.
Part of the problem with Bumgarner is that he doesn’t seem to have a stellar pitch to capitalize on, and he doesn’t control what marginal things he does.
FanGraphs includes a metric called “Stuff+” that attempts to calculate how good each pitch is and scales it on the scouting scale from 20 to 80 — in this case, 50, meaning a league-average pitch. None of Bumgarner’s pitches have a grade of 50 or higher this season. His cutter, against whom hitters have hit .375 so far, is his top-performing offering. Otherwise, his fastball underperforms, as does his breaking ball. It’s hard to argue with these claims: his four-sailboat was also one of the worst-performing places in all majors last year, suggesting he may indeed be lazy.
While Bumgarner’s game has always deviated from convention, as it’s not based on raw speed or dodging bats (he hasn’t even hit a batter an inning since 2016), it’s worth noting that he’s bled more speed this year. Namely, Bumgarner’s cutter has clocked up 86.2 mph so far, or 1.2 mph slower than last year’s average. His pitches play out quicker than they appear on the radar gun because he creates good extension — he releases the ball six feet, seven inches from the pitching rubber — but he’s clearly not going to overwhelm anyone at the big league level. This phase of Bumgarner’s career is all about using and locating his release angle. Unfortunately, this year he’s been struggling to throw strikes. For his career he has thrown 66% strikes; In his four starts this season, he’s at 57% strikes. rest raw.
It would be reasonable to ask if Bumgarner was physically okay based on the combination of his lost speed and control. The Diamondbacks themselves had the same thought and, after his first outing, sent him to Phoenix to be checked out by team doctors. “The information was slow to come in and we just thought it would be best for him to go back to Phoenix where our doctors can look at him,” manager Torey Lovullo told MLB.com.
However, Bumgarner received a clean bill of health after an MRI and was allowed to make his last few starts without a break.
Here we recognize that teams have more information and better data than the general public. The Los Angeles Dodgers, among others, have made a habit of picking up guns at the waiver wire, or the proverbial garbage heap, and receiving donations from them. Maybe a club will see something in their biomechanical analysis, or whatever, that leads to a breakthrough. However, we’re skeptical of a miracle turnaround, as even modest upgrades would leave Bumgarner with a subpar arsenal.
2. Which teams are allowed to check in?
No matter how you feel about Bumgarner or his chances for a power surge, the reality is he’s likely to get a different look. After all, every team thinks it’s the one who can turn back the clock for a once distinguished veteran. Factor in its price point — again, the prorated league minimum — and that it’s already stretched out, and it’s a pretty low-risk gamble to bring and tinker with on the side. If he has a rough outing or two, he can be cut without a second thought.
So who might bite? Let’s speculate recklessly. Remember that this is more of an art than a science. Also note that the teams are presented in alphabetical order.
We’ll find out soon enough if either of these teams, or one of the unmentioned Bumgarners, will give Bumgarner a chance to salvage his career.