Nicolás Maduro, this week at the Miraflores Palace in Caracas. Matias Delacroix (AP)
The forecasts for Venezuela also failed again. Two years ago, half the world celebrated the opportunity that had opened up in the country that had been led by Chavismo since 1999. The severe economic and social crisis, exacerbated by the pandemic, and international isolation then forced Nicolás Maduro’s government to do something. . His popularity had plummeted and most Venezuelans unable to flee the country were struggling to survive. Maduro might have seen his end near, which is why he decided to open his hand to get some air. It allowed international aid to enter, released some political prisoners, appointed an electoral body with opposition presence, and opened a dialogue with the opposition in Mexico. The idea that it is time to move to elections with guarantees in 2024, i. . It’s like Maduro felt the oxygen gained would be enough to go with the world to vote against him, but the result was in his favour.
The final blow was completed this week. The resignation of the pro-government rectors of the National Electoral Council (CNE) prompted the government to announce a process to form a new electoral body. The last CNE to look into the abyss was appointed in 2021 and included two out of five rectors not directly linked to the Chavismo. The opening signal was celebrated internationally. The European Union has even considered the possibility of participating again as a guarantee of an electoral process expected in 2024. Within the framework of this CNE, regional and local elections were held in November 2021, in which the opposition took part, also with some important victories. The results were recognized by all parties for the first time in years. With this maneuver, Chavismo could regain control of a key institution for any democratic process. Michael Penfold, global researcher at the Wilson Center, admits it’s a very hard blow: “It’s a big setback, a very negative turning point.”
The CNE had gained prominence in recent weeks due to its proximity to the October opposition primaries from which it was set to emerge as Maduro’s competitor in the elections. The Venezuelan opposition is making a historic break between two opposing sectors. One that advocates a strategy of confrontation and non-negotiation with the chavismo, led by leaders like María Corina Machado or Leopoldo López, and another moderate sector that defends dialogue and the institutional path to gain ground against the ruling party. For many years, the hard line strategy prevailed with international support, which failed at the end of 2022 with the self-dissolution of Juan Guaidó’s parallel government.
This perennial confrontation was highlighted in the organization of the opposition primaries. The moderate sector wanted the CNE to provide logistical support in the primaries, while candidates like Machado, who currently leads the polls, refused to participate if any kind of government intervention was envisaged. A day after the government announced the process for a new CNE, the opposition made the decision this Friday not to involve the electoral council in their process: “We will move forward in a self-governing consultation.” Both the radical and moderate candidates supported the measure, including the moderate Henrique Capriles, who again called for opposition unity. Supporters of María Corina Machado, who met with their leader at a rally in Barquisimeto, hailed the decision as a victory for the movement.
Political scientist Colette Capriles considers the idea that the primaries are self-governing to be “absurd” because the opposition does not have the logistical capacity to organize a mass process. “In the end, this means that there are two winners: the government, which is fueling the conflict again and sowing distrust, and the position of María Corina Machado vis-à-vis the opposition’s moderate positions, which are weakened,” he adds. Had the opposition accepted the support of the CNE, the political scientist and academic would have made it more difficult for the government to regain control of the body. “Logistical support would have legitimized these primaries in the eyes of the government, it was a way to protect the outcome and the process,” he says.
But Maduro has no intention of giving up any ground or facilitating any path. In recent months it has regained internal authority and diplomatic jurisdiction. After years without leaving the country, this became clear at a number of international and regional summits. Thanks to oil revenues and some liberalization of the economy, the economic situation has overcome the horrors of two years ago, although growth is still within the reach of few. The President has thus tightened his demands in the context of political negotiations with the opposition. In particular, she is calling for the release of Chavismo-affiliated Colombian businessman Alex Saab, who has been charged in the United States with money laundering and corruption.
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During that time, the US made some concessions, a shift in strategy that began with the departure of Donald Trump and the victory of Joe Biden, and deepened with the global energy crisis resulting from the war in Ukraine. Washington released two nephews of Venezuelan first lady Cilia Flores, who has been accused by the DEA of drug trafficking, and approved the issuance of a license allowing Chevron to expand its operations in the country, which has partially relieved the ruined treasury. These licenses, which can be extended to other companies, would be subject to a requirement to hold fair, fair and auditable elections.
But it wasn’t enough. Talks with the opposition in Mexico have been paralyzed since November and Chavismo are refusing to return to the negotiating table. Maduro and his spokesmen have been calling for the complete lifting of international sanctions against the country since the end of the year – and not gradually, as agreed – as a condition for resuming political dialogue. “If they want free elections, we want elections without sanctions,” the president said in November, making sanctions dependent on democracy. Chavismo takes no responsibility for the paralysis of the economy, blaming the crisis solely on international sanctions, many of which have been imposed to undermine democracy and hijack institutionality.
Maduro’s intentions regarding the CNE are still unclear apart from his attempt to tarnish and show who is in control, but the early steps are not encouraging. The commission set up by Parliament to decide nominations for the next council includes Cilia Flores, first lady and Maduro’s wife, a gesture the president sees as an “example of transparency and impartiality.” The organization Human Rights Watch (HRW) was among the first to react. Americas Director Juanita Goebertus called the government’s move “extremely dangerous” and called on Colombian and Brazilian Presidents Gustavo Petro and Lula da Silva to “use their access to Maduro to prevent this.” maneuvers if they want to contribute to the restoration of democracy”.
Petro has lost weight in the Venezuelan debate, or rather, Venezuela has lost weight in the Colombian President’s agenda. In the first few months, restoring ties with the neighboring country and helping Maduro return to the international stage and engage in dialogue with the opposition was a priority for the government, but the strategy has lost strength. The success of Petro’s first steps should have been crystallized at a summit on Venezuela in Bogotá last April, attended by 20 countries, including the United States. Petro then emerged as the great regional leader and the necessary actor to defuse a crisis affecting all of Latin America in particular. But the appointment failed. Venezuela remains such a sensitive issue, so ideological and with such high political costs that an agreement on Caracas is impossible. At the end of the meeting, the 20 countries did not even sign a joint memorandum. In addition to other internal crises forcing Petro to look inward, slow progress and setbacks appear to have dropped Venezuela from the Colombian president’s equation.
The chavismo is still stuck in its maze, and those who assured two years ago that the 2024 elections would mark a milestone in the country’s history are already beginning to change their discourse. The electoral process, for which there is no set date yet, is just around the corner and everything has changed in Venezuela in two years, so in the end nothing will change.
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