Guyana
Turnout was low in the referendum to approve Venezuela’s claim to the Essequibo region
Guyana’s government breathed a sigh of relief after a referendum intended to approve Venezuela’s claim to around two-thirds of the small South American country’s territory appeared to backfire.
Nicolas Maduro had hoped to use his country’s centuries-old claim to the disputed Essequibo region to mobilize public support, but polling stations across the country remained largely quiet on Sunday as most voters rejected the issue.
Voter turnout appeared so disappointing that the Venezuelan government was widely accused by analysts of falsifying the results.
“The Venezuelan people have sent a very strong message to Maduro and I hope that Maduro has taken note of what they said,” Robert Presaud, Guyana’s foreign minister, said on Monday.
Guyana’s officials did not comment directly on the results, but sources close to the government told the Guardian they were “relieved” by the surprisingly low turnout.
Venezuela has laid claim to the oil-rich Essequibo region since its independence from Spain in 1811, claiming its borders were unfairly determined in an act of international collusion.
The dispute is under review at the International Court of Justice, but Maduro has been pleading for weeks on TikTok and on national television for the Venezuelan public to support the government in taking matters into its own hands.
The five questions asked Sunday included whether Venezuela should ignore international arbitrators in The Hague, grant Venezuelan citizenship to the English-speaking residents of Essequibo and convert the 160,000 square kilometer territory into a new Venezuelan state.
Both Guyana and Venezuela have increased military activity on their borders in recent weeks as tensions between the warring nations reached unprecedented heights. Brazil also sent troops to its jungle border over the weekend as fears grew that the vote could lead to military action.
But polling stations across the country were largely empty, national and international media reported.
“I have not seen any independent reports of queues anywhere in the country. “It looked like a normal Sunday in Caracas,” said Phil Gunson, an analyst at the international crisis group. “It was a resounding failure for Maduro.”
Still, Maduro hailed the vote – in which 95% of those who voted yes to the government’s five questions – as a victory.
“It was a complete success for our country, for our democracy,” Maduro told supporters in Caracas on Sunday evening, praising the “very important level of participation.”
According to the Venezuelan government, more than 10.5 million people voted in the referendum – a higher number than when Maduro’s more popular predecessor, Hugo Chávez, was re-elected in 2012.
Venezuela’s electoral authority said it had extended Sunday evening’s voting window due to “massive turnout.”
But the government figures have come under scrutiny as analysts say they do not match the scenes at polling stations.
“You haven’t explicitly admitted it, but it’s obvious [they rigged the results]Gunson said.
An image purportedly shared by the Venezuelan electoral authority and later deleted showed a table with around two million votes for each of the five questions, suggesting they were counting the number of votes rather than voters to create the PR disaster to trigger.
The Venezuelan government has not released detailed or regional results, reinforcing doubts about their validity. “If the government sticks to its claim that this is a huge success, it should have no trouble publishing the vote breakdown,” said Geoff Ramsey, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
“This is a huge PR disaster for Maduro. They have had the propaganda machine running at full speed for months, but despite all their efforts, the voter turnout is far below our expectations,” he added.
Information gathered by Guyana and its allies suggests the actual turnout was fewer than 1.5 million people – less than a tenth of the population – said a source close to Guyana’s government, who described the move as “rigonomics.”
“I think Maduro has miscalculated very, very much,” the source added.
Guyana remains on high alert given the unpredictability of Nicolas Maduro, Guyana’s Foreign Minister, Hugh Todd has said.
“What we see from afar is that he operates as a one-man show, a dictator telling people what they need, rather than the other way around,” Todd told the Guardian.
“95% of people voted yes, so he can still get a victory… We are not jubilant. “We are still very cautious,” he said.
Only 120,000 of Guyana’s 800,000 inhabitants live in Essequibo, but the vast jungle is rich in natural resources such as copper and gold.
Maduro’s rhetoric toward the region has become more bellicose since the discovery of vast oil reserves in 2015, but this weekend’s referendum is seen primarily as a way to gauge how many people he can mobilize for presidential elections expected next year.
Opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado is expected to defeat Maduro if the election is held freely, and the US is threatening to withdraw recent sanctions relief if the dictator does not allow fair elections.
The Essequibo is the one issue that unites Venezuelans across the political spectrum, but the vote suggests that people are more concerned about more pressing issues, such as the economic collapse that has forced more than seven million people to flee the country said Gunson.
If Maduro is unable to unite the people under the banner of Venezuela’s claim to the Essequibo, his only choice is to manipulate the competition.
“This leaves a huge gap where there used to be a similarity to a strategy. What will you do now? “You have an unpopular president who is headed for disaster when it comes to getting anything close to free and fair elections,” he said.
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