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At this point, we’ve seen almost every major team play at least one strong opponent, but two exceptions stand out: Michigan and Penn State. Unfortunately, the 6-0 Wolverines will have four more weeks of glorious scrimmages, but the Nittany Lions’ first big game is getting closer and closer.
Are you ready?
Note: Questions submitted have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Penn State blogs rave about the lack of explosive plays this season. Am I crazy because I don’t mind an offense that requires long, time-consuming drives that tire out opposing defenses (yet still average over 40 points per game!)? Combine that with a defense that has a ridiculous stop rate and I’m all in. What did I miss? — Jt F., Medford, NJ
I wasn’t aware until this question that Penn State, which has won every game handily, had a low number of explosive plays, so I went to CFBstats and sorted by the number of plays over 20 yards and…what on earth?? The Nittany Lions are ranked 132nd with just 12 in five games – last among all FBS teams. According to TruMedia, they rank 125th nationally in explosive play rate (95th), which is defined as runs of more than 12 yards and passes of more than 16 yards.
Dude, this is nothing to worry about, this is roadside level panic.
Why is this statistic important? Because explosive plays are one of the strongest predictors of victory. I asked ESPN’s Bill Connelly, who incorporated it into his oft-quoted SP+ formula, for some stats from the 2023 season. He said teams that gain more than 20 yards than their opponent win 70 percent of the time, and teams that gain three more yards than their opponent win 84 percent of the time. Last year’s four College Football Playoff teams, Georgia (No. 1), TCU (No. 4), Ohio State (No. 10) and Michigan (No. 17), all ranked in the top 20 in wins of more than 20 yards.
The lack of explosiveness hasn’t hurt the Nittany Lions in the slightest so far, as their defense has allowed just 12 plays of more than 20 yards and is the third-best team nationally. But there is one notable caveat: Penn State’s four FBS opponents so far are ranked 98th (West Virginia), 100th (Illinois), 121st (Iowa) and 131st (Northwestern), in terms of explosive play rate. Everyone else’s defense also cripples these teams.
GO DEEPER
How will Penn State beat Ohio State? What’s going on with the WRs? Nittany Lions mailbag
After a home game against UMass this week, Penn State takes a big step up in the competition and travels to Ohio State, which is not only more explosive on offense (38th) but, what may surprise some, in terms of explosive speed of play as well Country leads allowed by its defense (6.5 percent). Sorry, but the Nittany Lions aren’t going to win this game on long, time-consuming drives alone.
OK, so Mike Yurcich needs to find answers quickly.
The puzzling thing is that there are actually people at Penn State who have achieved great success. RB Nick Singleton averaged 6.8 yards per carry last season, but that has dropped to just 3.8 yards this season. Top WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith has dropped slightly from 16.2 yards per catch to 14.9. It could be that the offensive line is significantly worse. Or it could be that James Franklin was too conservative because the Nittany Lions haven’t had to do much on offense to beat the teams they’ve played so far.
However, if you’re a Penn State fan, the most optimistic interpretation would be that the whole thing was a ruse and Franklin and Yurcich held off releasing the full playbook until October 21st.
Considering Oregon and Washington mirror each other this year (in terms of talent and record), it’s the Pac-12’s final year and they’re right next to each other in the AP poll (No. 7 Washington, No. 7 Oregon). 8th). ) and both about to join the Big Ten: Is the stakes for our border war higher this year than in the past? —Nick S.
Absolutely. And not just because it’s the first time in the 115-game history of this rivalry that both teams are ranked in the top 10.
In my time covering sports, it was rare for both programs to be nationally known at the same time. You have to go back to 2000, when Washington and Oregon both finished in the top 10. But the programs soon moved in opposite directions. The Huskies endured a long period of decline, with Oregon winning 12 straight meetings from 2004 to 2015. Finally, in 2016, when Chris Petersen finally broke the streak and Washington reached the CFP, Oregon imploded and Mark Helfrich was fired. But last year’s classic, when the 24th-ranked Huskies upset the sixth-ranked Ducks, reignited the fire.
This year it seems as if a duel could even be put on paper. The winner will be in a great position to make the CFP and boost either Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr.’s Heisman campaign. And I think the Big Ten background adds an additional element. Everyone on the West Coast knows how much Oregon and Washington fans despise each other. However, once they leave the Pac-12, their rivalry could be largely in the dust in a conference that includes not only Ohio State-Michigan and now USC-UCLA, but also Floyd of Rosedale, Little Brown Jug, Paul Bunyan’s Ax, etc Being overshadowed and so on.
When I first moved to the Bay Area in 2011, the West Coast was constantly hosting big national games, but the Pac-12 went into a downward spiral not long after. This weekend’s game is without question the biggest intra-conference game on the West Coast since No. 3 Oregon visited No. 5 Stanford on a Thursday night in November 2013. That was 10 whole years ago.
And the most exciting thing is that this could be the first of several more top-10 matchups if USC remains a contender. The Trojans face both teams in November.
Oregon QB Bo Nix has thrown 15 touchdowns and one interception this season. (Darren Yamashita/USA Today)
Everyone knows that over the last nine years, all 36 CFP selections have suffered zero or one loss. As of this weekend, 29 Power 5 teams currently meet this threshold. We’re at a time of year when everyone talks about “ruling the table.” How many P5 teams with zero or one loss do you think we will have by Selection Sunday? —David T., Hoover, Ala.
What drives people unnecessarily crazy are undefeated teams. Almost everyone will lose at some point because 18-23 year olds have bad weeks and surprises happen. If you set the O/U for undefeated Power 5 teams at 2.5 at the end of the regular season, I would definitely take the under. And if you lowered the value to 1.5… I might still take the lower value. In eight CFP seasons (through 2020), the average number was 1.3.
Defeat is more difficult. The average so far has been 3.4, although with five (three times) and only one (once). At this point I believe the number will increase. Every P5 conference will produce at least one, and I could easily see the top-heavy Big Ten and Big 12 producing more than one.
Here’s my prediction, which certainly won’t elicit any “aged so well” screenshots in eight weeks: An undefeated (either, but not both, Georgia or Michigan), one-loss in the Big Ten or SEC, the ACC, Big 12 and Pac- 12 and an additional one-loss squad from the Big Ten. So six teams for four spots, which hasn’t happened since…the first year in 2014.
Stew, can you walk us through your tough Saturday night/Sunday morning schedule? I love nothing more than waking up on a Sunday and reading your column, but that must be difficult for you. Do you slowly write down your final thoughts throughout the day? Are you waiting to do anything until the final Pac-12 game is over? What time do you usually hit the hay? —DJ, Grand Rapids, Michigan.
I work on it throughout the day, maybe writing a few things after the morning games (on Pacific Time), a few more at halftime of the afternoon games, a few more before and during the prime time games, and then the bulk of it during the After Dark games . These games are on, but I’d be lying if I said I had to watch them closely. (I was pretty locked in for Arizona-USC in the fourth quarter and OT, though.)
I typically submit the column around 11:30 p.m. PT. I’m too wound up to go to bed straight away and my head is spinning from everything that’s happened that day. A mini ritual I have is to open the notes app on my phone and try to predict what the next day’s top 25 will be. I don’t have a good reason for it, I just do it.
I finally fall asleep around 1:30 or 2:00 a.m. and then get up again at 7:30 or 8:00 a.m. to record The Audible and start the week. It’s a grueling 30 hours or so for which I expect absolutely no sympathy. Every weekend is great fun.
GO DEEPER
What we learned in CFB Week 6: Ranking Miami’s stunning loss to Georgia Tech
Can Jimbo survive a season with more than four losses? Texas A&M is already at the half before four, with road games at Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU still to come. If he doesn’t survive, will A&M go all-in for Deion? The SEC’s television money should allow for a higher salary than the Buffs receive in the Big 12 (16). — Jeff E.
It’s so hard to say with Jimbo. What level of emergency would justify the “emergency glass breakage” case for this $77 million fire extinguisher?
Because 8-4 seems to be exactly on the cut line. While this represents an improvement from 5 to 7, it is still a far cry from what A&M fans imagined their program would be after six seasons under a national championship coach, and it is compounded by the fact that their hated nemesis Texas is apparently headed for something significantly better than 8-4, just as it wants to join the Aggies’ conference. If they believe Steve Sarkisian is on the verge of turning this program into a juggernaut, do they need to find someone better equipped to be his counterpart?
But boy, $77 million is still a mind-boggling sum. The largest acquisition Auburn has ever made is believed to have been $21.45 million, when the company fired Gus Malzahn. And there are many different ways to get to 8-4, some more troubling than others. Is the fourth loss in quadruple overtime in the season finale against LSU? Or will the Aggies be defeated at both Tennessee this weekend and at Ole Miss on November 4th?
Tennessee has a big challenge this week, but the game against Ole Miss could be the point of no return. Lane Kiffin hasn’t been reserved in his feelings toward Jimbo since Jimbo called Lane a “clown performer” for fueling the narrative that A&M “purchased” its top-ranked 2022 recruiting class. After Ole Miss beat the Aggies on Halloween weekend last year, Kiffin joked, “Maybe Jimbo has a wild card outfit for me.” This spring, he mockingly referred to A&M as “a program where you huddle and wait 35 seconds.” until it works.”
Needless to say, it wouldn’t go down well if Kiffin made Jimbo look like a clown on the field.
When that day comes, I’m sure A&M will be successful at Deion, just as I’m sure other programs will be successful at Deion, but I still stand by Deion not leaving Boulder after one season. Not when so many players, including his son Shedeur and star WR/CB Travis Hunter, moved there specifically to play for him. Students would not be able to transfer and play immediately a second time. And it’s not like he needs the money.
Which, by the way, could be a reason for A&M to stick with Jimbo if he at least shows progress in the second half of the season. You could wait a year and hope Deion is ready to make the jump by then. When the time comes, it stands to reason that Deion, a Florida native and Dallas resident, would look to go to the SEC, ideally to a school in Florida or Texas.
Texas A&M is 4-2 and travels to Tennessee this weekend. (Troy Taormina/USA Today)
Iowa trails by six points in the fourth quarter and begins a drive from its 20 points with three minutes left, or USC is ahead by six points in the fourth quarter and an opponent has the ball in the same situation. Who are you betting on? —Taylor C.
Definitely USC. The Trojans can at least get a sack, maybe even a rush, and sometimes they stop people. Their stop rate is 65.3 percent, as 65.3 percent of opponents’ attacks end in zero points.
On the other hand, I’m not sure Iowa could go 80 yards in three minutes with the game running, even if the defenders were blindfolded.
GO DEEPER
Stop Rate Rankings: Where does this elite UCLA defense come from?
True or False: LSU’s Jayden Daniels would be a Heisman Trophy candidate if LSU’s defense knew how to do basic defensive tasks. —Chris, Huntsville, Ala.
It’s not that he’s not a Heisman candidate. He’s sixth in our latest straw poll. It’s more that an established quarterback who had an absolutely monstrous season for one of the major SEC programs is only ranked sixth. Daniels is having what I would describe as a Tim Tebow/Johnny Manziel/Lamar Jackson type dual-threat season. He throws for 328 yards per game and rushes for another 70 yards per game. He ranks second nationally in both total offense (398.5 yards per game) and passer rating (196.7).
What’s unique about this season, however, is that there are so many incredibly good QBs across the country, many of whom will have Heisman-like stats at the end of the season and won’t even make it to New York. Especially if their team is not a playoff contender.
If LSU had a half-decent defense and at least beat Ole Miss, I think it would be no worse than No. 3, behind Caleb Williams and Michael Penix Jr., both of whom have equally eye-catching stats, but for undefeated teams. Should a QB be penalized for the performance of his team’s defense? Of course not. But it happens because teams that lose become increasingly out of sight and out of mind as the focus turns to the playoff race.
Daniels’ biggest hope is that LSU gets rolling, beats Alabama in early November and gets to the SEC title game. That would at least ensure he plays on the final weekend, just before ballots are cast.
Which team would win on a neutral field: UNC or USC? They started the season in similar situations – terrible defenses last year, but arguably the two best quarterbacks in college football. It feels like UNC’s defense has improved significantly while USC’s defense still can’t figure out how to attack. Interestingly, however, UNC is still behind USC in the AP poll. —Chris M.
Right now I would definitely take the Tar Heels, and not just because USC is suffering two unnecessarily close games against Colorado and Arizona. UNC just looks a lot better than it has at any time since Mack Brown returned five years ago.
Drake Maye’s arm strength is amazing. When I watched him against Syracuse, it seemed to me like he could just pick any spot on the field and hit it with a laser, with or without pressure. I can’t imagine how many tackles the USC defenders would miss if they tried to contain Tar Heels WRs Nate McCollum, JJ Jones and Kobe Paysour, as well as RB Omarion Hampton. UNC would score a lot of points.
Obviously Caleb Williams is still Caleb Williams. I would still pick him over any other QB in a college QB draft. The big difference between UNC and USC, however, is that the Tar Heels’ defense has gotten much better. They improved from 115th to 37th in yards per play allowed (5.1) and from 114th to 46th in plays allowed over 20 yards (21). And they already have almost as many sacks (13) in five games as they did all of last season (17).
That doesn’t mean they would hold the Trojans to 13 points, but I would have more confidence in them getting a few stops than the other way around.
The AP poll has USC at No. 10, UNC at No. 12. I would flip them, and then I would also put Louisville over the Trojans 6-0, so UNC No. 10, USC No. 13.
What about Cincinnati taking Scott Satterfield, who Louisville would have liked to see leave anyway to get Jeff Brohm, to the statement “Bama loses to Rich Rod only to end up with Nick Saban”? Scale. — Luke F.
It reminds me of the time when USC AD Pat Haden hired Steve Sarkisian – then known as “Seven-win Sark” – from Washington, who turned around and hired Chris Petersen, who Haden himself had interviewed but either turned down or rejected by him Was rejected. Even USC fans felt Washington got the better end of this deal.
Meanwhile, Oregon fans weren’t particularly concerned about Mario Cristobal heading to his alma mater. Imagine Dan Lanning beating a top-10 opponent this weekend, just a week after the Crist-no-kneel game in Miami.
You can tell that the writers’ strike is over.
(Top photo: David Banks / USA Today)