The madness of the NCAA tournament eventually comes for just about anyone who fills in a bracket before first-round games. In fact, most brackets show their first blemishes by Thursday afternoon of the first week of the tournament, because honestly, it just takes luck to string together more than a few correct predictions about the outcome of an unpredictable event.
Even our panel of nine college basketball writers and analysts is dealing with some broken brackets. Three of our nine featured Experts have already seen their title picks eliminated from the field, and none of the other six have all four of their prospective Final Four teams close. Early departures from Kansas, Purdue and Marquette stumbled a lot of people.
While the NCAA tournament is technically a single-elimination event, that doesn’t have to be the case for us. With only 16 teams remaining, it’s time for a second chance. As the Sweet 16 action draws near, our panel of experts resets their brackets and predicts how they’ll see the Big Dance from here.
Here’s how our experts view regional action unfolding, as well as a look ahead to next week’s Final Four in Houston.
Gary Parrish, college basketball insider
Like many others, I lost Purdue as a final four pick in the first round. But the other three schools I brought to Houston – namely Houston, Alabama and UConn – remain in the bracket and I will continue to ride with them. My new East Regional predicted winner is Kansas State, the highest seed remaining in the East (although Tennessee is the favorite in the betting markets).
And my projected title game — Alabama vs. Houston — is still the same when Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars cut the nets on the first Monday night of April. Led by Marcus Sasser, Jarace Walker and Jamal Shead, Houston is the only team currently ranked in the top 10 for Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, according to KenPom.com. The Cougars have everything history tells us to win the NCAA tournament and I suspect they will do it in 12 days.
Matt Norlander, senior college basketball contributor
My self-loathing isn’t the level I usually reach by the end of the first tournament weekend. Three out of four Final Four teams I had on Pick Sunday are still in the bracket, and I only had to change two of my Elite Eight picks for this drill (FAU, Kansas State). So I’m not doing too much panning here. I still have Creighton over Alabama because of Creighton’s balance, defense, shooting, size and coaching. I still have Houston over Xavier, mostly because asking Xavier (who doesn’t have a deep lineup) to recover and beat Houston two days after playing the grown-up Texas is a tall order.
I still have Gonzaga over UConn because Gonzaga has the No. 1 offense in the country and has been ranked as the most efficient team in college basketball for the past seven weeks. In the East, I go with the 33-win team that’s in the top 30 for most of the season and has the deepest bench and greatest collective experience of playing together as a team: FAU. Let’s go. We’ve seen teams from non-Power leagues reach the Final Four on a semi-regular basis for the past decade. That would be no wonder. My champion is still Houston. It was always Houston. Kelvin Sampson could be the best coach without a national title and for reasons already outlined by Parrish above, UH is the logical choice.
Kyle Boone, college basketball writer
Half of my pre-NCAA Final Four picks — No. 1 seeded Alabama and No. 1 seeded Houston — are still alive. But I’ll only keep half of that group in my reset bracket for the Sweet 16. I’m too in love with what I saw of Creighton to write it off as a legitimate pick for the Final Four. Ryan Nembhard was great in the second round, Ryan Kalkbrenner was a star in the first round, Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman are stars…always. There is so much talent on this team to like. I think the Bluejays will not only surprise some people by knocking out Princeton — which is expected — but they’ll also advance into the Elite Eight and also wipe out No. 1 overall seed Alabama en route to a Final Four spot . I like them coming out of the left side of the bracket only to fall in the postseason finals to eventual champion Houston, my pre-tournament title pick.
David Cobb, college basketball writer
In my “expert” group, hastily filled out for CBS Sports on the night of selection Sunday, my Final Four consisted of Alabama, Houston, Kansas and Marquette. Only two of them are left. Fortunately, my national pick, the Crimson Tide, is among them and is looking strong with a relatively easy route to the Final Four. But in my “other group” (sorry I’m that guy) that I filled in after looking at the matchups for some time, all of my Final Four remain: Alabama, Houston, Kansas State and UConn. This one also has the Crimson Tide coming out as the national title winner. I’m all with this quartet as the Sweet 16 approaches. UConn has a favorable draw, getting Arkansas ranked 8th on the Sweet 16, and the same goes for Kansas State, which ranks 7th in Michigan state.
Dennis Dodd, senior author
First of all, thanks for the mulligan. My mount now doubles as a breakfast place set, soaking up the spilled milk from my cereal. That has a better chance than any predictive analysis. On to the reiteration: Michigan State isn’t the Sweet 16’s biggest surprise, but now that the Izzos are back, why stop now? The Spartans have the outside shooting and inside brawn with Tom Hauser (if officials hold back this year with their unusual bracket penetration. Let ’em play.) So Tom Izzo and Sparty became sentimental favorites to win the East in New York , but not The Favorite. More on that later.
Give Alabama honor in the south. In terms of basketball, the Crimson Tide are resilient. You have the talent to go all the way. There will be questions – there SHOULD be questions – at every step, but we judge tires. Princeton will play his match against a meticulous Creighton who – unlike Missouri – will do his right preparation against the seemingly overpowered Tigers in the regional finals. The Midwest is asking for a final between Houston and Texas. One leaves the Big 12 early because he doesn’t want to be with the other. It’s fair to say that UT looks down on UH. Kelvin Sampson is cementing a career in the Hall of Fame. With Marcus Sasser back, the Cougars will nip the depths of the Horns to reach the Final Four for the second time in three years. The west is wide open. Arkansas was touched by a magic wand. It’s probably not as disciplined as the other three teams, but it’s on a roll. Eric Musselman is preparing for another polo stripping. However, UConn is sneakily good (believe or not in the great East). It will knock out the Gonzaga-UCLA winner in one of the Sweet 16’s best games.
In the Final Four, take Alabama over Michigan State and Houston — behind a large home crowd — over UConn in the national semifinals. Alabama may be more talented and incredibly effective defensively, but in a game that lasts to the last minute, Sampson and Cougs win a classic by few goals. Rewind 40 years ago for reference. Houston wins this time. The only question is whether Brett Yormark will claim it as his third straight Big 12 title.
Chip Patterson, college basketball writer
What was already a favorable path for No. 1 overall seed Alabama has become even more manageable with two rounds, with Nos. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 all eliminated before the second weekend. Compared to running the gauntlet facing the eventual winner of the other three regions, I think the Crimson Tide has the best chance of avoiding attrition en route to Houston.
As for those other three regions, Kansas State was absolutely electrifying and I think the pace and energy the Wildcats play with will make all the difference in MSG, Jaime Jaquez has surgically worked on critical holdings and UCLA has theirs Overall defensive efforts to equalize increased for the loss of Jaylen Clark and Texas over Houston comes to depth for me as the Longhorns have a little more bench support than the Cougars if Kelvin Sampson’s roster has further injury or foul problems. From there, I believe Alabama arrives in Houston on a less tumultuous path and wins it all by claiming the first men’s basketball national championship in its first Final Four appearance.
Jerry Palm, Bracketology Expert
The only Final Four team I lost from my original pick was Purdue and I’m mad at myself for that because as a Purdue fan I should have known better.
I’m also not sure I would have gone with my new pick, Kansas State, but the Wildcats are not only the highest-seeded players, they’re the best team. Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell have been arguably the best 1-2 hits in the tournament so far and certainly in this region. If they continue to play at the level they are, it will be really difficult to eliminate the Wildcats.
In the other regions, I’m sticking with my original picks of Alabama, Texas, and Gonzaga, although the latter two will certainly face significant challenges. Texas has to get through Houston provided it gets past Xavier. I originally liked Texas for their form entering the tournament.
The same goes for Gonzaga, which is in the far west. You can legitimately plead for any of the four teams to come through, but I like the way the Zags are going about it. The semifinals is a battle for West Coast dominance.
And my predicted champion Alabama is looking just as good in two games, winning each by 20+ points. I’m not sure how much tougher the competition will be now. San Diego State can be a problem if it can dictate style. Creighton is better than the 6 to the left of her name on the bracket. I just don’t think any of these teams can match the athleticism of the Crimson Tide.
In the finals, Alabama takes revenge on Gonzaga for losing to Birmingham in the regular season. The Crimson Tide concludes with its first-ever NCAA men’s basketball championship.