Venezuela has been an unclassifiable country for years. Where some see an authoritarian government, others see a dictatorship and still others, albeit increasingly less, a misunderstood democracy. In a place where there are political prisoners and Chavismo’s control reaches all state institutions, two million Venezuelans took to the streets across the country on October 22 to vote for an opposition leader to face Nicolás Maduro in a presidential election can stand up to it. And not just any leader. More than 90% chose María Corina Machado, representative of the radical wing of the opposition, as their candidate in 2024.
The result was unexpected for everyone. For Machado himself (Caracas, 1967), whose figure languished for years in the shadow of other opposition leaders. For the latter, who never imagined that someone they considered a loose verse without much influence would sweep them through the polls with such force. And above all, it was a surprise for Chavismo, which has already deployed all its machinery to try to annul the primaries that made her leader of the opposition.
Speaking to EL PAÍS this Friday from his office in Caracas, Machado is sure that this is just the beginning of an uncertain path. Chavismo maintains a disqualification against them with little legal substance, but formally prevents them from taking part in the elections. It is no secret that Maduro does not want to run against them in the presidential elections agreed by the government and opposition in 2024, in negotiations that have just resumed after months of paralysis in Barbados. The removal of the disqualifications is another point of the agreement, but a red line for Chavismo Machado. She is holding on to her victory: “A plan B would be to ignore the mandate of October 22nd.”
Questions. Why do you think people voted for you in the primaries?
Answer. The numbers tripled the estimates. The emotion that arose was absolutely transversal. At one o’clock in the afternoon, the ballots went out in areas typically associated with Chavismo, and this happened in cities, middle class and popular places. It was very impressive. In my opinion, this represents the completion of a cycle and proof that Venezuelan society is united in a quest for change that is felt with enormous force throughout Venezuela. There is a mission that entails great responsibility.
Q Did the mobilization come as a surprise to Chavismo?
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R. It surprised us all. In a country where there is no fuel or public transport and where the media is censored, there was concern about how people would find out if they had no electricity, no internet and no media. But eventually people found out. We have received the great lesson that we must trust a society that is ready to embrace freedom.
Q Did you feel the support of the entire opposition?
R. Yes, it’s very exciting because I received it not only from the parties that are on the platform [Unitaria de Venezuela] and those associated with the primary, but also some regional and local political organizations that were relocated after the incident. There is a need to reach a major national agreement with a fundamental consensus that needs to be established and taken forward. This is the beginning of the end, but there are still many challenges ahead.
Q What strategy should you pursue now?
R. We must not underestimate the strategy of the regime we are facing and understand that they, Maduro and his entourage have made it very clear that they are not prepared to give up power under any circumstances. We need to consolidate and expand the social movement that has already begun in order to speak to Venezuelans who may be afraid of the change we represent. We must take the initiative and make Venezuelans feel that it is for the good of everyone. There are some actors who, for various reasons, may feel close to Maduro, but ultimately have incentives for this process to move forward and for an orderly and sustainable transition to take place. I am referring to some governments in Latin America, such as Colombia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico. The willingness to coordinate forces with all these actors must be conveyed in order to create incentives for the regime itself that lead to a negotiation with more force and legitimacy.
Q Do you think Chavismo will overturn the disqualification?
R. I knew a lot of red lines, for example the primaries that were said would not take place. And that they would never allow me to compete, let alone win. My sanction is not legal, it is political and it came before the primaries. I had the message that people shouldn’t vote for me. And it didn’t work for them, quite the opposite. It posed a challenge to the system. What next? The further development of a process with many dimensions. Chavismo recognizes that it has lost its social base and, to some extent, its repressive capacity. There is also a feeling that something is happening in the Bundeswehr and security force bases. There are great internal tensions within this heterarchical structure with diverse interests; this is not a conventional dictatorship. And they need money because they have plundered the country. There are many incentives and constraints to comply with the agreement signed in Barbados. This agreement entails the fulfillment of a number of obligations, including ensuring that everyone who voted in the primaries can register to vote in the next election.
Q Do you think there needs to be a plan B in case this approval is not granted?
R. We must focus on compliance with the mandate. A plan B is to ignore October 22nd [fecha en la que se celebró la primaria]. What needs to be done is for Maduro to understand that in his own interest he must keep his word on Barbados.
Q But if the exclusion is not lifted, would we have to find another formula to participate in the elections or defend the October 22 mandate?
R. These are not the only two options. Defending the mandate of the 22 does not mean abandoning the electoral process, quite the opposite. The mission is to build the armed forces and develop the strategy to hold competitive elections so that Venezuelans can elect the person they voted for in the primaries.
Q But if they stop her from registering as a candidate…
R. 12 more months. We have created the conditions for this situation to be reversed. It is an element of the political order that ultimately depends on the balance of political forces.
Q If the disqualification is upheld, would you resign and allow another candidate to run?
R. This option does not exist. We will build the strength to ensure that the elections are clean and free, and that means respecting the Barbados Agreement, which states that the winning candidate in the primary can register to vote.
Q What do these recent Chavismo movements against the primaries mean?
R. The position within Chavismo is not homogeneous. There is a sector that, because of the events of the 22nd and the shock waves that this is causing, believes that we must move towards an orderly transition and accept that they will be opposition for a while and then try to return, something similar What happened to the PT in Brazil? They started talking about it. There is another sector within Chavismo that believes that with the control it has over the electoral system, it could defeat us in the elections. And some sector that says there’s no way they’re going to compete with me.
Q Will the negotiation process continue in Barbados?
R. I can’t be convinced, I just think it’s too early to come to a conclusion. These tensions within Chavismo exist and will depend on which of the sectors gains the upper hand.
Q Is a democratic transition being negotiated with Chavismo?
R. This is already underway, but there are many other aspects that need to be negotiated and are not included in the agreement. Part of the problem we have in opposition is a years-long crisis of representation that was solved by the primaries. From now on we face a negotiation process with much greater strength.
Q What type of transition process would you be willing to undertake? Would you grant the leaders of Chavismo a judicial guarantee or some kind of amnesty?
R. Negotiation is about incentivizing and ensuring that the cost of remaining in power is greater than the cost of accepting exit from a transition. And of course that means that certain guarantees have to be given. This is a result of negotiations and not a public discussion.
Q Imagine winning the presidential election in 2024. How would you see Maduro’s future?
R. I see a bright future for Venezuela. Those who were part of the system and did not commit serious crimes can be assured that they will face a fair justice system, not like the one we have been denied. For other actors, we have to see what the conditions are for each of them. What I can guarantee is that this is not a process aimed at revenge or retaliation, but rather a repetition of the practices of Chavismo. We seek justice for our country.
Q What would be the worst mistake the opposition could make now?
R. I don’t know the mandate of October 22nd, which goes far beyond the election of a candidate. It is the affirmation of the love for freedom, for Venezuela, for our children and the willingness to fight with determination, intelligence and solidarity among all Venezuelans.
Q What led you to believe that it was necessary to negotiate with Chavismo to find a democratic solution, even though you had previously claimed the opposite?
R. I have repeatedly pointed out that the goals of a negotiation must be clear. What I criticized were the enormous deficiencies in the negotiations so far. There were 15, this isn’t even close to the first. In these processes, Maduro gained money, legitimacy and time. I think there is an opportunity to introduce important changes on this occasion, one of which was clearly the building of strength through the primaries. The context is changing and on this basis we can move forward with negotiations that are not about improving the conditions of the status quo but whose purpose is democratic transition.
Q Will his disqualification be part of the negotiations?
R. That’s it already.
Q With little success back then.
R. I don’t know why this ends when the trial begins.
Q Because for Chavismo, his disqualification is a red line.
R. Surely you have read the statement from [el secretario de Estado, Antony] Blinken made it clear there that the qualifications of the candidates who took part in the primaries were a central point of the signed agreement.
Q How do you assess the role of the USA, which has just lifted sanctions on oil, gas and gold?
R. I have the feeling that there is great concern and even legitimate skepticism that the regime will keep its promise. The incentives arrive in the present, but their fulfillment will occur over time. The one that has the capacity to provide incentives so far is the United States government. And they have made it very clear that if this is not complied with, the licenses will be revoked. I want to trust that the agreement will be honored by both parties.
Q Have you spoken to Leopoldo López?
R. Yes, I spoke to everyone.
Q And with Henrique Capriles?
R. No, but I have spoken to many people in your party. I have spoken to everyone and everyone is invited to be part of the command we are building.
Q Did Gustavo Petro call her?
R. I sent him a message. I address all the presidents of the region. One of the most important things for the presidential election is that Venezuelans abroad can vote. Colombia, Peru and Chile are countries that can make it clear to Maduro that this is a right that must be respected.
Q What is your biggest fear right now?
R. What worried me most was that if the primary did not take place, we Venezuelans would lose confidence. That would have been devastating. He has shown us what we are capable of, and that is what we need to care about most. It destroys the barriers that the regime has erected between us.
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