The Mariners have done more than just break their decade-long postseason drought, because as sweet as it was to say they did, it would have been more than a little bittersweet to have done so and not missed a single home game play (as if they had lost to the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series). But Seattle moved on thanks to one of the most impressive comebacks in playoff history in Game 2 in Toronto on Saturday. You must surely start in Houston. But there will be at least one home playoff game at T-Mobile Park. It promises to be an incredible environment.
Of course, they still have to face the Astros, who have had to rest and watch and who are No. 1 for a reason. No team outside of the Dodgers (111-51) has won more games this year than Houston (106-56). No team outside of the Dodgers has won more games than the Astros in the last five years. The faces may have changed, on the field and in the front office, but the outcome never seems to change: success. Lots of it.
So who comes out on top between these two division rivals? Let’s find out position by position:
We’ll be the first to admit that Catch Value isn’t entirely – or maybe even mostly – from offense. Martín Maldonado, who has appeared in 43 postseason games for the Astros, and Christian Vázquez, who pushed the Red Sox back to a ring in 2018, are highly respected for their defensive value, ability to manage pitchers and the running game check. It is very important.
But they also all hit .187/.246/.319 (.565 OPS) combined as catchers for Houston this year, which is quite a hole to dig out of. If there’s one postseason Maldonado at-bat that comes to mind, it’s that time in last year’s World Series when absolutely everyone on the planet knew it wasn’t going to swing. Seattle’s Cal Raleigh may not have the same reputation, but he’s hit 27 homers with a .774 OPS this year, plus four big hits in the Mariners’ Wild Card Series sweep.
There is a danger of writing Yuli Gurriel off too quickly, as he posted an excellent 131 OPS+ just a year ago, although his recent postseason history has been patchy (.237/.301/.311 in 196 plate appearances since 2019). On the other hand, he’s 38 years old and enduring his weakest full season in the bigs with just 84 OPS+ and a second half that was worse than his disappointing first half.
Ty France, meanwhile, had what was mistakenly considered a breakout season with 126 OPS+. Why are we saying this? Because, little noticed, he had 128 OPS+ in 2021 and 133 OPS+ in 2020. It could just be that France are a very good batsman.
Is it possible that Jose Altuve just had the quietest great season in baseball? He may not be the 50-steal speedster he once was and no one is hitting .340 anymore, but Altuve’s .300/.387/.533 season of 28 homers and 18 steals finishes with 160 OPS+, which isn’t all tying with his 2017 season MVP for the best offensive year of his career, but was a top-five mark in the majors. At 32, a decade after his first All-Star appearance, we’re not far from contemplating what Altuve’s Cooperstown case might one day be like. (He also has a .907 Postseason OPS.)
Adam Frazier has his value – he makes a lot of contact – but his 80 OPS+ can’t even come close to comparing. Overall, the Seattle second basemen ranked 28th in wins over substitutes, according to FanGraphs. This one is not nearby.
It may seem like Jeremy Peña (101 OPS+) and JP Crawford (100 OPS+) have had similar offensive years, and the back of the baseball card shows you that. But the ways they got there were very different, with Crawford having more or less the same year in 2021 – that’s just who he is, a league-average hitter – while rookie Peña made a great start, got injured, struggled all summer and then picked it up again in September/October, hitting six homers with a .790 OPS.
Even if you argue that the at-bats aren’t that different, defensive metrics give Peña a huge advantage over Crawford. Good enough for us.
It behooves us to point out that Eugenio Suárez, who played his way from Cincinnati as a salary anchor to Jesse Winker after a .198/.286/.428 performance last year, had a very good season with Seattle, hitting 31 homers with 129 OPS+ and solid Defense.
It’s that performance that brings it much closer than one would have thought a year ago given the year Suárez was in. We’re still giving Alex Bregman the advantage here as he’s a better fielder, has a better track record and just gets more on base (a 34-point lead in OBP this year). But the fact that this is even a question — and it is — speaks to the kind of rebound season Suárez has commanded.
The Astros don’t have Jordan Alvarez and the Mariners don’t. This is in no way disrespectful to anyone Seattle has out here; It’s the simple reality of the fact that Alvarez, who hit 37 homers .306/.406/.613 (187 OPS+), is one of the most talented hitters in the sport. The Mariners won’t be able to match Alvarez, who will likely see some DH time when the series moves to Seattle, where there’s still plenty more to do.
Due to injuries — Jesse Winker and Sam Haggerty are both unavailable for the ALDS — the Mariners were forced to turn to Jarred Kelenic in the Wild Card Series, and he missed base in six plate appearances after scoring 55 OPS+ had posted the regular season. Dylan Moore could start if the Astros have a left-hander on the mound, but that’s not a strength for Seattle or a matchup they would ever win.
On one side: One of baseball’s most outstanding young players, Home Run Derby runner-up, suspected AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez, who was a superstar in his first season.
On the other hand? Well, we don’t really know. Dusty Baker said so recently, noting that Chas McCormick, Mauricio Dubón and Jake Meyers are all options for midfield. We’d go into the numbers, but it doesn’t matter that much either. Neither is Rodríguez, and just as Seattle can’t possibly match Alvarez, neither can the Astros here.
It never looks like Kyle Tucker will get the respect he deserves despite being one of baseball’s top hitters for three seasons now. After his second straight 30-homer season, Tucker has 135 OPS+ combined over the past three seasons, and he’s sneaky on bases too, successfully stealing 25 of 29 bases this year. Mitch Haniger is also a good player, and just last year he hit 39 home runs. But he’s not Tucker – on either side of the ball.
Whenever Alvarez is here, he has a tremendous advantage over Carlos Santana, and we expect that to be the case at the Seattle games (if not more so given that most of Alvarez’s non-DH starts are post- season at NL parks when the DH was no longer available under the rules at the time). If Alvarez is on the left, Trey Mancini would likely start here, though he’s done little since joining Houston (75 OPS+). Getting Alvarez here at all – we assume – is enough of an advantage.
This is the one area where Houston’s ability to rest while Seattle had to go to Toronto will come in handy, as Luis Castillo will likely start in Game 2 and would only be featured twice if the series went full five games goes. Of course, Logan Gilbert starting Game 1 for the Mariners isn’t exactly a problem; He just posted a 3.20 ERA in a highly effective first full season. But neither is he Justin Verlander, the living legend, the timeless wonder, the owner of a 1.75 ERA and almost certain winner of the AL Cy Young Award.
That would probably set Robbie Ray up for Game 3, and while he’s the defending AL Cy Young champion, he wasn’t on the line (4.32 in six starts in September/October) or in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series (four runs allowed in three innings) or against Houston this year (.442/.509/.865 against in three starts).
If you go by wOBA, an OPS-like stat that better offsets the value of extra-base hits, then the Mariners had the second-best bullpen this year, only allowing a .274 mark. Or they were tied for second anyway…with the Astros also allowing a .274 mark. They were both well-rested on the course and faced fewer batters than any of the other 28 teams.
Needless to say, there aren’t many breakups here, and if things go according to plan for Houston, they won’t have to rely on the bullpen even that much because they expect their starters to get deep into games. This one is close and we’ll give Seattle a slight advantage because we have Andrés Muñoz, perhaps the most overwhelming bullpen arm in the series.
The Astros have home field advantage, a pretty big lineup advantage, and a better rotation that’s rested and prepared. They don’t have Julio Rodríguez for what it’s worth, and they’re going to go into an absolutely wild Seattle atmosphere for what will be the Mariners’ first home playoff game in over two decades. Seattle will win a game, maybe two. But they won’t win three.