Mario Draghi at European Commission Headquarters in Brussels, March 7, 2022. (Kenzo TRIBOUILLARD/POOL/AFP/Archives)
When Mario Draghi talks about Russian gas, he’s walking on eggshells: how can he justify his vehement opposition to an invasion of Ukraine without jeopardizing Italy’s purchases of this precious commodity? Like Germany, the peninsula would have something to lose if Moscow turned off the gas valve.
Highly dependent on Russian gas, Italy has been forced to resort to tough sanctions against Russia and is now, like other members of the European Union, on a blacklist of countries that Moscow considers “hostile”.
Like Germany, another major European economy that doesn’t want to drop Russian gas overnight, Italy, according to diplomatic sources, will take a dim view of a European embargo on Russian hydrocarbons, similar to the one announced by US President Joe Biden on Monday. Tuesday.
Italy imports 95% of the gas it consumes, of which about 45% comes from Russia. For Germany, 55% of the gas it buys is supplied by Moscow. But if gas accounts for 42% of Italy’s energy consumption, then for Germany this figure is only 25%.
The goal set by Rome: to reduce their addiction “as quickly as possible.” “This is not an easy task, but it must be done,” Mr. Draghi admitted to MPs on Wednesday. “Our security and our freedom are at stake,” the head of the Italian government added.
Flags of Turkey, Russia and Italy hang from the pipes of the Blue Stream gas pipeline in Samsun, northern Turkey, on November 16, 2005. (MUSTAFA OZER/AFP/Archive)
Italy, which turned the page on nuclear energy more than three decades ago, plans to increase its annual natural gas production from 3.34 billion to 5 billion m3 and increase imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States.
Rome is leading an all-out diplomatic offensive to free itself from the Russian yoke: thus Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio went to Algiers, Italy’s second gas supplier, in late February to boost production.
“War Economics”
Other producers with a difficult past, such as Azerbaijan, Tunisia, or even Libya, may come to power. And Mario Draghi spoke on the phone with the emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, to secure an increase in LNG supplies.
However, “this increase is not enough to offset a possible reduction in gas supplies from Russia,” Roberto Bianchini, director of the Politecnico di Milano’s Climate Finance Observatory, told AFP.
“We are preparing for a war economy, hoping that this does not happen,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Manlio Di Stefano.
Vladimir Putin (d) together with Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller (left) in Anapa, Russia, December 8, 2012. (ALEKSEY NIKOLSKY / POOL/AFP/Archives)
“If the gas supply were cut off, we would have two weeks of complete autonomy, two weeks without industry, and then total darkness,” he said.
Real or exaggerated warning?
“Italy currently has one of the largest gas reserves in Europe, 30% filled, it can import more LNG and reactivate coal-fired plants to avoid this scenario, so there will be no power outage,” Simona Tagliapietra, professor of energy at the Catholic Milan university, told AFP.
According to his calculations, as prices rise, the EU will pay Moscow one billion euros a day from April to pay for its purchases of gas and oil.
According to Roberto Bianchini, the cessation of supplies to Russia “may lead to the need for a temporary suspension of consumption by some companies.”
Return of coal?
Ecological Transition Minister Roberto Cingolani acknowledged that phasing out Russian gas would be a long-term challenge.
“We import 29 bcm of gas from Russia a year, of which 15 bcm will be supplied by the end of spring from other countries. It will take us 24 to 30 months to become fully independent.”
If Mario Draghi is betting on more renewable energy, he doesn’t rule out the resurrection of the half-dozen coal-fired power plants that are still in operation and doomed to disappear in 2025.
“To avoid power outages, the only [option] the alternative is to use the power of coal-fired power plants”, despite the harmful impact on the environment, says Mr. Bianchini.
In February, Mario Draghi asked that European sanctions “target limited sectors, not including energy.”
“Italy is in full agreement with other EU countries, primarily with France and Germany,” he assured deputies on Wednesday, adding that “if necessary, he is ready to take new restrictive measures.”
The hiccups arose within the government when talks began in Europe in late February to exclude Russia from banking messaging network Swift, an important cog in international finance.
While Luigi Di Maio advocated a hard line in Brussels to expel Russia from the Strizh, Economy Minister Daniele Franco argued in Paris that “certain countries, including Italy, continue to pay for Russian natural gas.”
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