The city of Mariupol no longer exists, it is almost completely destroyed. The port city had been under heavy fire since the start of the war in February. The attacks on a children’s clinic and a theater full of people seeking protection caused international horror. Those who could have run away a long time ago. It is to be feared that there are only a few.
Before the war, Mariupol, which historically had a strong Greek influence, was inhabited by almost half a million people – mostly Russian speakers. Russia’s illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014 had already put Mariupol in a difficult position. At times, the city was briefly occupied by pro-Russian separatists during fighting at the time, but was recaptured by the Ukrainian army.
destruction after resistance
Since then, Mariupol has been in a geographic dilemma with Crimea on one side and pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk on the other. According to experts, the Kremlin may have miscalculated with the city. It was originally planned – similar to Kiev – to take Mariupol with a rapid advance. Apparently, the Russian military leadership had assumed here privately that they would be welcomed as liberators by the Russian-speaking population. However, when this was not the case, the Russian army set out to destroy the city.
Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin wants to end the war by May 9, the anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany, he said. As Russia failed to advance in western Ukraine, the decision must now be made in the east. Mariupol is proving to be the centerpiece of this strategy.
Land bridge as destination
After capturing the city, Russia has the opportunity to establish a land corridor between Crimea and the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. This would mean that more than 80% of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline would be in Russian hands.
Ukraine would be cut off from maritime trade in the Black Sea. Mariupol is the largest and most important port in the Sea of Azov region. Ukrainian exports of steel, coal and grain also passed through Mariupol, for example, to the Middle East, but far beyond that via the Mediterranean.
Ultimatum for Mariupol passed
Ukraine has let the ultimatum issued by Russia to withdraw the remaining associations from Mariupol expire – without any reaction. Escape corridors for civilians in the east of the country remained closed today due to a lack of agreement on a ceasefire.
Mariupol was therefore also extremely important economically until recently. The country’s main steel producer, Metinvest, was also located in Mariupol. By destroying important factories, Russia is also acting against economic competition. Ukraine is also affected by the destruction of the sector economically and militarily.
Azov regiment headquarters
The capture of Mariupol should also guarantee a propaganda success in terms of the idea initially launched by Putin of wanting to “denazify” Ukraine. The headquarters of the Azov regiment was located in Mariupol. The paramilitary volunteer militia was founded in 2014 by Ukrainian nationalist politicians after the conflict with Russia at the time. Militia leaders and members are often right-wing extremists or ultranationalists and can be attributed to parts of the neo-Nazi scene. The Azov regiment was later incorporated into the Ukrainian National Guard as well. How many members the group still has is unknown. Putin has repeatedly suggested that the entire Ukrainian government was under National Socialist infiltration or collaborating with neo-Nazis – more material for Putin’s May 9 plans.
Of course, the Ukrainian leadership is aware of the importance of Mariupol. The last defenders “would fight to the end”, Kiev said. What comes after that is left open. According to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, the events in Mariupol could become a “red line” for further negotiations with Russia.