Vladimir Putin loves to tell the story of how, as a boy from a poor family in Leningrad (now St. Petersburg), he hunted and killed rats in the basement of the apartments in which they lived.
Once, waving a stick, he pressed a large one into the corner. It returned the blow, shooting itself in the face.
The conclusion from the tale is that the Russian president sees himself as a big rat who will deal with any aggressor if trapped.
And right now he’s huddled in a corner – a rat with nuclear weapons that he hints that he will not hesitate to use.
This is the image that Western leaders and generals need to keep in mind in the coming days.
The chances of Armageddon in less than a week dropped from zero to 4-5 percent in my opinion. This may not sound like much, but it is really very worrying.
Vladimir Putin loves to tell the story of how, as a boy from a poor family in Leningrad (now St. Petersburg), he hunted and killed rats in the basement of the apartments in which they lived, writes MARK ALMOND
carnage
The emotional pressure is huge. The news footage from Ukraine, most of which was taken by brave civilians on their camera phones, is appalling.
Cities shaken by volcanic bombings; children huddled in shelters; bags for corpses carried by burning apartment blocks; and dead soldiers on street corners. Scenes that were unthinkable in a European capital only a few days ago are full of bloody reality.
It is deeply disappointing for people to see this and to know that Western governments are refraining from taking action to stop the carnage. Our natural human urge is to help in any way.
But there is a terrible danger that by taking dramatic action to stop the massacre, we could actually make it worse.
At a press conference in Poland yesterday, a Ukrainian journalist called on Boris Johnson to call on NATO allies to impose a no-fly zone across the country to stop Russian bombers from raiding the capital, Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities.
But if we take this course of action, RAF pilots and their NATO counterparts will have to be ready to shoot down Russian planes.
It is very likely that Putin sees this as an open declaration of war and not as a humanitarian intervention to protect innocent civilians.
Boris Johnson and his fellow leaders are right to oppose calls to deploy military aircraft
Sanctions are causing an internal crisis in Russia. He must achieve his military goals or face a political and personal catastrophe – and Putin will see the no-fly zone as a direct threat to him.
He no doubt remembers the fate of Libyan Colonel Gaddafi, who was lynched at the end of NATO’s “humanitarian intervention” in 2011.
So Boris Johnson and his fellow leaders are right to oppose calls for the deployment of military aircraft.
No matter how well-intentioned, such a move would inevitably ignite an already unstable conflict.
Because the horrors in Ukraine today are nothing compared to what could happen if the war spreads to full-fledged military action against NATO.
The West’s immediate goal is to get Putin out of Ukraine. Somehow, one way or another – be it through diplomacy to save the face, retreat from the Ukrainian resistance or a consequence of sanctions in Russia.
In the short and medium term, we want to see it appreciated by the authorities. It is clear that as long as he stays in the Kremlin, global peace is at stake.
But what we can’t do is help get him even further into this corner to the point where he decides that ten million deaths are a price worth paying to save his own skin.
Ukrainians opposed with much more courage than Kremlin generals and yes-men predicted. If the war continues to go badly for Russia, then a nuclear strike is becoming more likely.
Yesterday, there were signs that Russia was abandoning its initial “soft-soft” approach (although it may not have felt that way about Ukrainians) and opting for heavy bombing.
Ukrainians have been warned to evacuate areas of Kyiv – “to flee or die”, the Kremlin says – so that the Russians can bomb “technical facilities”.
In the worst case scenario, if Ukrainians continue to survive and Russian casualties increase, Putin could sanction a nuclear attack on Kyiv to destroy resistance there.
Ukrainians have been warned to evacuate areas of Kyiv – “flee or die”, the Kremlin says – so that the Russians can bomb “technical facilities”
This will lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths. Then the pressure for nuclear retaliation from NATO will be enormous.
But can we sacrifice millions of innocent Russians as carelessly as a ruthless dictator?
Of course not. And yet we must somehow make it clear that the West’s patience has limits. Putin cannot be allowed to think he can hold the planet for ransom.
There is another chilling possibility – the Russians to use a nuclear bomb on the battlefield, tactical weapons to destroy military resistance or key Ukrainian facilities.
This would create relatively fewer casualties, but would bring incalculable amounts of nuclear waste into the atmosphere – and risk other potential consequences.
Ukrainians may decide to use nuclear rods from national power plants to create a “dirty” bomb for revenge or despair.
threat
This war quickly escalated into a life-or-death struggle for Putin. If ousted from power, he faces trial and possible execution at home or prosecution for war crimes in The Hague for, for example, the use of cluster bombs.
And he is not alone. He is surrounded by hardliners, men who are soaked in blood like their president.
Unless the entire Russian government is overthrown by a popular revolution, with ordinary citizens rising up against the police, bureaucrats and oligarchs, the only way to overthrow Putin from within is by his own generals.
It is not impossible. But they will expect concessions from the West, including the forgiveness of war crimes and possibly geopolitical gains, such as the UN’s recognition that parts of Ukraine, including Crimea, are officially Russian.
This is not a conflict with easy solutions.
Yes, sanctions will put pressure on Russia to back down. But not instantly.
One of Putin’s associates, Dmitry Medvedev, tweeted a barely veiled threat yesterday: “A French minister said they had declared economic war on Russia.
Keep your tongue, gentlemen! And don’t forget that in human history, economic wars have often become real.
And while the cost of the war is exorbitant – estimated at 12 billion pounds a day – the Kremlin is paying for it in rubles and can simply print more.
Atrocity
In the long run, this will lead to hyperinflation. But again, it takes time to get involved and affect the standard of living.
However, the Russians are already suffering some of the consequences. Many found out this week that they can no longer use Western smartphone apps to pay for subway tickets and other daily purchases.
And those who rely on money from family members abroad will not receive their money.
Over time, all this will increase the pressure on Putin at home, but not immediately.
For now, no matter how provoked the West may feel, we must avoid hasty reactions. Voices in Ukraine say that World War III has already begun, but we cannot allow this to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
No, we must not reassure Putin, but we must avoid apologizing to him for escalating the conflict.
We must support the right of Ukrainians to oppose the invasion and give them the means to do so. And yet we must not get entangled in the cable of all-out war.
The horrible reality is that even when faced with the worst pictures of Kyiv and other scenes of atrocities in Ukraine, ice-cold rationality is the only option.
Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute, Oxford.
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