It’s only a few days before we really know, but the three-day Formula 1 Bahrain Test has given us something to work with to try and understand the competitive order between teams.
The variations in track temperature, tire compounds and likely fuel levels cloud the superficial picture. We know the compounds and track temperatures for each run, but not the fuel levels. But if we at least only compare race sims where the teams did a clear sequence of three stints, changed tire compounds at each stop before immediately going back together and used all three compounds, then we can get a much more polished one Make a picture than just the headline.
The runs we have identified as likely race sims are as follows:
| Friday | ||||
| begins | stint 1 | stint 2 | stint 3 | |
| red bull | 8:46 a.m | 12 rounds of C3 | 15 rounds of C2 | 21 rounds C1 |
| Alfa Romeo | 2:55 p.m | 15 rounds of C2 | 18 rounds C1 | |
| AlphaTauri | 8 o’clock | 15 rounds of C3 | 18 rounds C1 | 13 rounds of C3 |
| Williams | 1:45 p.m | 17 rounds of C3 | 18 rounds C1 | 16 rounds of C2 |
| Ferrari | 2:45 p.m | 11 rounds of C3 | 16 rounds C1 | |
| Saturday | ||||
| begins | stint 1 | stint 2 | stint 3 | |
| Ferrari | 2:47 p.m | 14 rounds of C3 | 12 rounds C1 | |
| Mercedes | 8:58 a.m | 11 rounds of C3 | 17 rounds of C2 | 13 rounds C1 |
| Alfa Romeo | 8:28 a.m | 17 rounds C1 | 13 rounds of C2 | 10 rounds of C3* |
| haas | 1:15 p.m | 14 rounds of C3 | 11 rounds of C2 | 15 rounds of C1 |
| AlphaTauri | 8:21 a.m | 15 rounds of C2 | 18 rounds C1 | 11 rounds of C3 |
| Williams | 1.50 p.m | 16 rounds of C3 | 15 rounds of C1 | |
| haas | 1:15 p.m | 14 rounds of C3 | 11 rounds of C2 | 15 rounds of C1 |
* Alfa runs incomplete due to a PU issue
In addition to these runs, there were slightly anomalous runs from McLaren (two consecutive 10-lap stints on the C3 and C2 on Friday) and Alpine (a 16-lap run on the C3 on Friday and a 14-lap run on Friday). the C1 on Saturday). Aston Martin also appeared to be conducting partial race simulation runs on Friday.
Looking at each day in isolation, we get the following picture of the average lap times of each stint:
| Friday | |||||||||
| stint 1 | stint 2 | stint 3 | |||||||
| C1 | C2 | C3 | C1 | C2 | C3 | C1 | C2 | C3 | |
| red bull | 1m38.3s | 1m38.5s | 1m37.8s | ||||||
| Ferrari | 1m39.3s | 1m37.9s | |||||||
| Aston-Martin | 1m39.3s | ||||||||
| McLaren | 1m39.9s | 1m38.1s | |||||||
| Alfa Romeo | 1m40.2s | 1m39.9s | 1m38.1s | ||||||
| alpine | 1m37.9s | ||||||||
| AlphaTauri | 1m40.5s | 1m39.2s | 1m38.6s | ||||||
| Williams | 1m41.1s | 1m39.3s | 1m38.8s | ||||||
| Saturday | |||||||||
| stint 1 | stint 2 | stint 3 | |||||||
| C1 | C2 | C3 | C1 | C2 | C3 | C1 | C2 | C3 | |
| Ferrari | 1m38.7s | 1m37.4s | |||||||
| Aston-Martin | 1m40.0s | 1m39.5s | 1m38.3s | ||||||
| Mercedes | 1m40.2s | 1m39.2s | 1m37.8s | ||||||
| haas | 1m41.1s | 1m39.6s | 1m38.7s | ||||||
| Alfa Romeo | 1m39.7s | 1m39.0s | 1m37.3s* | ||||||
| Williams | 1m39.6s | 1m38.4s | |||||||
| AlphaTauri | 1m41.3s | 1m40.0s | 1m39.1s | ||||||
| alpine | 1m39.4s** | ||||||||
* Alfa runs incomplete due to a PU issue
** Alpine single race, unknown which stint was simulated
These numbers should be taken with caution due to the different times of day the runs were conducted. Those who did simulated runs on both days either improved a lot or the course was better on Saturday than on Friday. Either way, with Red Bull not running races on Saturday, we’re left without a good Saturday benchmark. But if we close the gap between Red Bull and Ferrari on Friday and extrapolate to Saturday, we get a competitive order something like this:
1 – red bull
2. = Ferrari/Aston Martin (+0.2 seconds on Red Bull)
4. = Mercedes/Alpine (+0.6s to Red Bull)
6. = Haas/Alfa/McLaren (+1.05 seconds on Red Bull)
9th – Williams (+ 1.25 seconds on Red Bull)
10th – AlphaTauri (+ 1.45s to Red Bull)
Despite being just 0.1s off Red Bull’s average in stint three on Friday, the Ferrari (on the same C1 tyre) was 0.8s slower in the stint two simulations – more than Pirelli as the difference between the C2 -Tires from Red Bull and would match the C3 from Ferrari. So the 0.2 second difference we quoted between the two cars is based on that.
But Saturday’s run gave us a very good view of the comparison between the Ferrari, Aston Martin and Mercedes and they were pretty close.
The Alpine is a true dark horse and we only included it based on two unique long runs it did each day that were not run in a race sim sequence. We therefore had to guess what stage of the breed they represented. Similarly, McLaren’s race was so limited that it’s difficult to gauge what his two 10-lap heats on Friday represented. At the rear, the Williams was slower than the AlphaTauri on Friday but seemed to have a much better Saturday to jump ahead.
There is a great deal of variation in the interpretation of the data, as much of it is not directly comparable. But this represents our best guess until the cars start to converge and it all becomes reality later this week.
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