Markets finally seem to be backing down in their long-running chicken game with the Federal Reserve.
A bet by investors that a slowdown in inflation would prompt the central bank to start cutting interest rates later this year prompted a significant January rally, even as Fed officials insisted it was too early to say consider a policy change.
Investor optimism began to crack with the latest jobs report and Tuesday’s persistently high inflation data shook traders again. Now longer-term bets are finally starting to reflect the central bank’s latest forecast.
After consumer price pressures, derivatives markets showed the federal funds rate peaking in August at 5.28%, according to FactSet. Hopes that the Fed would cut rates several times this year have faded: the benchmark rate is expected to end the year above 5.12%.
Wall Street’s base case in early February on fed funds futures contracts was that the Fed would hike rates between 4.75% and 5% around mid-year, before raising them by 0.50 in the second half of 2023 percentage points lowered.
“The market is very much ahead of itself,” said Joseph Lewis, managing director and head of corporate hedging and FX solutions at Jefferies.
According to Mr. Lewis, although corporate hedging activity is now higher than at any time in the last decade, companies have struggled to manage the market’s changing expectations of Fed interest rates.
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Higher interest rates have hurt stocks, particularly tech and growth company stocks, over the past year by reducing the amount investors were willing to pay for earnings expected far into the future. As Wall Street became persuaded that inflation was falling and the Fed would cut interest rates, investors flocked back to speculative assets, which had rallied as the Fed took a highly accommodative stance.
Shares rose in early 2023, led by technology stocks. Bond prices rebounded from their worst year on record as yields fell. Crypto saw a resurgence and traders rushed to bullish options to capitalize on the markets’ chaotic recovery.
The euphoria began to wane earlier this month when the January jobs report showed that the economy was adding jobs much faster than expected and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 1969.
“The shift in sentiment around interest rates has been really remarkable,” said Doug Fincher, portfolio manager at Ionic Capital Management. “As aggressive as people were about lower futures rates in mid-January, the reversal was just as pronounced.”
Mr Fincher said the moderate expectations were confusing. He said his hedge fund tried to capitalize by betting against two prevailing trades: Ionic Capital bet that interest rates would rise more than the market expected and that the cuts would come more slowly.
The most likely scenario at the next Fed meetings is another two quarter-point hike, according to futures contracts. As for the June meeting, traders are split between a pause in rate hikes and another quarter-point hike.
Short-term bond yields surged Tuesday. The two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.62%, its highest since November. The yield on the six-month note broke above 5%, the highest since 2007. Major stock indexes oscillated between small gains and losses for most of the day.
Balancing interest rates against both unemployment and inflation, the Fed is attempting to tighten conditions to maintain stable prices, but not enough to cause increased job losses. Despite around a year of rate hikes, the labor market has proved surprisingly resilient, which investors say gives the Fed more room to hike rates.
Why the Fed will eventually move to rate cuts has been a source of uncertainty, traders said.
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The Fed may be able to reverse course as inflation falls towards its target. Conversely, a rapid market or economic deterioration could prompt officials to cut interest rates.
Concerns about growth remain unremarkable in the corporate bond market, where credit investors pay particular attention to companies’ ability to make future debt payments. The yield excess over US Treasuries, which investors demand to hold corporate bonds – both high yield and investment grade – recently fell to its lowest level since April.
Accordingly, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s corporate bond emergency index fell to a seven-month low in January. While the Fed’s tightening campaign has not yet had a significant impact on the economy, the health of corporate balance sheets will remain a key guiding light.
Write to Eric Wallerstein at [email protected]
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