Before hip surgery Matt Chapman out of the 2020 playoffs, the A’s have offered their superstar third baseman a 10-year, $150 million extension, writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. After a hip injury, turning down the offer was a decision that caused some hesitation in Chapman. About two years after Oakland attempted to expand Chapman, the proposal only exists as a comparative tool.
Chapman would spend the remaining arbitration seasons in the Toronto Blue Jays uniform. The Jays retain command control of Chapman through the 2022 and 2023 seasons, after which a client of Scott Boras could go to free agency to test the open waters. Rosenthal ran the numbers and found that Chapman would need to sign a six-year, $122 million contract when he became a free agent to make his decision not to renew look wise. It’s doable if he can stay healthy.
On the field, Chapman was healthy again in 2021 and once again won the Hot Corner Golden Glove Award. He ranked fourth among third-best defensive-run basemen rescued by The Fielding Bible Awards in 2021.
However, his attack has not quite returned to its former heights. With a line of .210/.314/.403 in 622 plate appearances, Chapman’s 101 WRC+ was the lowest of his career, though certainly a respectable number combined with top-notch gloved work. Another season without hip surgery could help Chapman recover even more in 2022, and home games away from the Coliseum wouldn’t hurt either.
For at least the next two seasons, Toronto should have a productive regular on a short-term, relatively lucrative deal. The 2021 MLBTR arbitrage projected is $9.5 million, which is an extremely affordable price to watch Chapman day in and day out in the hot corner.
In essence, he will take Markus Semyon as a veteran superstar assigned to play alongside a young star Beau Bichette. Chapman’s addition has the added effect of sliding. Cavan Biggio back to the cornerstone. As good as Chapman has been in the past, he has a big opportunity to fill in after Semien posted close-to-MVP numbers for his year in Toronto.
And while Chapman’s personal narrative may be partly tied to the measure of team success that this version of the Blue Jays is capable of achieving, there are actually too many separate threads tied to this Toronto-based team to attribute much of their future success. or abandoning Chapman alone.
Chapman’s personal narrative – and his future contract negotiations – will be much more closely tied to three factors: personal health, field performance, and likely free agent form two offseasons. At this point, it’s likely that Chapman and Toronto’s alliance will only last two seasons before he becomes a free agent.
Of course, a long-term deal cannot be ruled out, but there is no chance of this. First, Boras prefers to deal with his clients through free agents. Secondly, the Blue Jays also have other players (namely, Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) that will require long-term commitments that will add to a payroll already weighed down by big deals for Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausmanas well as George Springer. Third, the main perspective Orelvis Martinez rises quickly through the ranks, and he may be ready to take over sooner rather than later.
That said, if the Blue Jays continue to feel good, Chapman might enjoy playing in Toronto. It’s also worth wondering if Chapman’s injury and previous refusal to renew his relationship to another such offer will change if Toronto decides to make one. At worst, the Blue Jays and Chapman have two seasons to enjoy each other’s company. Then we can find out if Chapman made the right financial decision by turning down Oakland’s offer for an extension.