Milan
In the weeks before her election victory, the ultraright Giorgia Meloni called at rallies across the country that her future government would mean the “end of the abyss” for the European Union, suggesting a more nationalist than proEuropean approach to the naval blockade in the Mediterranean as a way to tighten the Migration control.
Meloni, who completes a year as prime minister this Sunday (22), has not fulfilled any of these promises or achieved any major successes. Still, there is something to celebrate.
His greatest achievement was to adopt an outwardly pragmatic tone and disarm the wideeyed international community, for the time being ignoring his most extremist proposals. In the absence of concrete successes, he internally called for measures of an ideological nature, such as defending the traditional family, in order to strengthen his own support base.
As a result, the government managed to overcome the distrust of Western leaders without losing popularity. A balance that could be shaken in the coming months by the deterioration of the economic situation and the upcoming European Parliament elections, which are already agitating the political forces of the coalition in power.
Outside Italy, particularly in the European Union, there were fears that Meloni would drive a shift towards the illiberal ultraright when he took office, bringing the country closer to Viktor Orbán’s Hungary with whom she actually remains close. The postfascist origins of the party she founded, the Brothers of Italy, raised concerns.
Adopting a moderate stance in continuity with the previous government ensured that Italy remained in line with the antiRussian bloc in response to the Ukraine war, brought Meloni closer to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and opened the doors of the White House, where President Joe Biden was received in July, and is increasingly distancing the country from China.
This international positioning is Meloni’s most important result, according to political scientist Antonella Seddone, professor at the University of Turin. “The government can celebrate the solidity of Italy’s position abroad. “Especially because this was the biggest challenge given the heavy political legacy of the brothers of Italy,” he said Sheet.
In the domestic context, tangible successes are lacking. The harshest promises have disappeared from the scene, particularly because they are difficult to implement, as is clear in the case of the naval blockade. And the tight ceiling in the economic sector makes it difficult to make significant spending and tax cuts another campaign banner.
Italy’s national debt is the second highest in the EU and the effects of the conflict in Ukraine are hitting the pockets of the population and the cost of living is rising. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has just revised down its growth forecast for this year (0.7%) and next year (0.7%).
“Internally, the government is starting to face major problems as election promises are being put to the test. Given the limited resources, it is necessary to limit proposals in the economic area,” says Seddone. “Symbolic cards remain. The government is trying to compensate for difficulties with measures aimed at strengthening the relationship with voters.”
One of them is the push against the rights of LGBTQIA+ families. At the beginning of the year, the Ministry of the Interior prohibited registry offices from registering documents with the names of two mothers or two fathers who had children through assisted insemination or surrogacy (popularly called surrogacy).
The formula pragmatic on the outside, ideological on the inside helps to explain why Meloni maintains his popularity with voters despite fluctuations, even if he has made no promises.
The division between the opposition parties also contributes to the difficulty of acting on a common agenda. According to an Ipsos poll for Corriere della Sera, 42% approve of the government’s performance while 47% say they disapprove. Shortly after the inauguration, these numbers were 42% and 40%.
This is a fine line that brings risks on two fronts in addition to the worsening economic situation. One of them is immigration. Despite Meloni’s tough talk, the country is the country most affected by the disembarkation of immigrants crossing the Mediterranean irregularly this year, with nearly 140,000 people.
The issue even sparked disputes between Rome and Paris after the Italian government made it difficult to deploy NGO ships providing humanitarian services. Afterwards, however, Meloni managed to bring the issue into the European spotlight, prompting efforts from Von der Leyen, among others. However, the measures have not yet had any effect.
For Chiara Moroni, political communication specialist and professor at the University of Tuscia, the migration flow is the area where Meloni has the most problems. “It’s a boomerang for them. An issue that is straining internal and international relations and a population that feels that immigration poses an imminent threat,” he says.
The other pressure point is the European Parliament elections in June. Meloni has in his coalition Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini of the Lega, who has used immigration to improve the tone of his election campaign. The two belong to different factions in parliament.
“Meloni has staked much of his reputation on controlling irregular immigration, and his current ineptitude could weaken his popularity and benefit rivals like Salvini,” estimates Luigi Scazzieri, a researcher at the Center for European Reform. “The more Meloni feels under pressure, the more she will be tempted to abandon her pragmatic approach to the EU.”