“If Tunisia collapses, there is a risk that 900,000 refugees will arrive, the situation could get out of hand in the summer.” With these words Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni tried to draw the attention of the EU summit to the issue of immigration. Striking numbers to photograph a very serious crisis that has been going on for months in neighboring Italy. But how reliable are the figures and what are the reasons that make Tunisia a “social bomb”?
* Believable 900,000 landings? – According to the Interior Ministry, 20,379 migrants have arrived in Italy since the beginning of the year, a number that has more than tripled compared to the previous year. Of these, 1,587 are Tunisian nationals, but it must be said that people of various nationalities are departing from this part of North Africa. In short, we are still a long way from the numbers Giorgia Meloni feared, even though an intelligence report puts 685,000 migrants willing to cross but leaving Libya. In 2016, the most acute year of the migration crisis, around 181,000 people arrived in Italy. According to a government poll, 65% of Tunisians (or 7.5 million people) said they would like to emigrate.
* The food crisis – Tunisia’s economic situation is deteriorating rapidly: in February, inflation reached 10.4%, but if food consumption is taken into account, the figure rises to 15.6%. The government has announced price freezes on some basic necessities for the entire month of Ramadan (which started yesterday), a time when household consumption traditionally increases. The unemployment rate remains anchored at a worrying 15.3%. The national debt has reached 34 billion euros, putting Tunisia at risk of default.
* The requirements of the IMF – There would be a “temporary solution” to the crisis: Tunis has been negotiating a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the amount of 1.9 billion dollars for months, but the negotiations have stalled. The fund is demanding very strict guarantees, starting with stopping public subsidies for fuel and food, which would only exacerbate the family crisis. It is no coincidence that the government and opposition have agreed to reject the conditions dictated by the IMF to the sender.
* Kais Saied’s iron fist – If the economy weren’t enough, Tunis is also in the international community’s sights for political reasons. Only on March 16 did the European Parliament vote for a resolution condemning the country’s leader, Kais Saied, who “centralized power in his hands from July 25, 2021, after he dismissed the government, dissolved the assembly and suppressed the 2014 constitution.” On February 13, journalist Noureddine Bouatar, director of Tunisia’s main independent radio, was also arrested. In January, the same fate befell 37 trade unionists.