The national consensus ahead of the Timberwolves’ playoff series against Memphis was clear: the Wolves had a chance to make it a good series, but in the end the Grizzlies were expected to prevail.
After all, Memphis is No. 2, has won 10 more games than Minnesota and has home field advantage.
Given all of these facts, ESPN’s panel of judges viewed the series as follows: 21 predicted the Grizzlies to win. The majority said it would take six games (12 picks), while the rest said either five games (seven times) or a full seven games (twice).
The record for the Wolves winning the series: zero.
I looked at the same facts and came to the same conclusion: a Wolves series win was possible but unlikely. Choosing you to win might sound like fun, but putting your name on it requires a professional decision to be made.
But as Patrick Reusse and I spoke on Monday’s Daily Delivery podcast (which was preceded by a special bonus episode late Saturday after Game 1 with Chris Hine), Minnesota’s 130-117 win at Memphis on Saturday was both in score and in course remarkable.
It wasn’t just Anthony Edwards scoring 36 points on his playoff debut or Karl-Anthony Towns silencing some critics after his play-in-no-show with an efficient but powerful 29 points, but like Wolves seemed to be in control for much of the game.
One game does not dictate how the full seven games will go. Memphis has had that in mind in recent times, having won Game 1 as an underdog against Utah last season before losing four straight to the Jazz.
But winning Game 1 turned that streak from “Minnesota should be able to keep up” to “Minnesota can win.”
The wolves were a heavy outsider at the beginning. Now the series is essentially a toss up if we consider both the feel and the math.
Feeling: Wolves share the regular-season series 2-2 with Memphis. Those four games plus Saturday make it possible that Minnesota could win three of the next six.
Math: In the history of the seven-game NBA playoff series since 1984 (when the league switched to a 2-2-1-1-1 home/away format), lower-seeded players who won Game 1 away have continued won 53 series while losing 54.
Of course, the numbers will be even better if the wolves can expand their series lead at some point. For the time being, the “experts” should be content with seeing Game 2 on Tuesday with fresh eyes.