Next year, Mexico will have a female president at the helm of the country. Although surprising, it is no less predictable. Almost no one now doubts that Claudia Sheinbaum or Xóchitl Gálvez will take power despite the vicissitudes that politics brings. The third candidate would be the Citizens' Movement, which is still undetermined, but few experts believe that the young development of this party and its recent setbacks will allow it to put anyone in the presidential chair. What remains to be clarified, and several experts are helping us with this for this report, is how a campaign will unfold that will lead to the largest election yet known on June 2nd due to the number of positions at stake. . What will be the political stance of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador in his last year in office and how will he be judged during his six years in office? And what will happen to the economy, one of the keys to any political campaign that today shows its best prospects in more than a decade?
Vanessa Romero Rocha believes that the election campaign, which will begin in March, will be “a peaceful competition,” at least compared to previous campaigns in which, as she says, the economic power “for example, invests a lot of money in advertising against a candidate stuck”. , as Calderón, who spent 682 million pesos on campaign advertising.” Big businessmen today are not dissatisfied with the government's economic policies, even if some of them support the opposition, he says, “but the Business Coordinating Council, which deposited 136.4 million in 2006 I don't think he will act as… block on this occasion. against Morena”, the ruling party.
When it comes to politics, and given the polarization that has characterized this entire six-year term, there is no shortage of people with an opposite opinion than analyst Romero Rocha. “We are already seeing how the resources of the 23 states governed by Morena are being allocated to candidate Sheinbaum and that the federal government is conditioning social welfare for the benefit of her election campaign. And it is a preliminary campaign of many disqualifications,” says historian José Antonio Crespo. He accuses them of “doing the same thing as the PRI did in their time, controlling everything, the INE, the electoral court”, to the point that the analyst has no doubt that the president will not accept defeat if the Results are in favor of one candidate and the other. “I don't think he recognizes the change, if necessary he will fight with all means, with litigation and mobilization. And that can endanger the stability of the country,” says Crespo.
There is always something we agree on, even if it has different reasons. Romero Rocha claims that López Obrador will be “particularly belligerent,” “loud and scandalous” in his final year. “Because it will try to implement the initiatives that cause the most controversy among the opposition, electoral, judicial and military reforms, elimination of autonomous organizations.” According to Romero Rocha, these are “reasons for an electoral strategy, for votes “To win in his party, and because it is what he has done on previous occasions, for example when he was no longer head of government in Mexico City.” With that he leaves the criticism behind him and leaves the paved path, “so that the People perceive Claudia as a break in the middle of the political struggle.”
Crespo has no doubt that López Obrador will be an intervener and protagonist of the campaign, but not for the reasons mentioned above, but because “his history is to hit democracy hard and because he is ready to do anything so as not to lose.” If the opposition came to power, they might find evidence of corruption among him or his children, and that should worry him. The president is already campaigning as if he were campaigning and is breaking the law because he cannot intervene,” says the analyst.
Crespo doesn't do things by halves. He believes the government “hasn't delivered on anything it promised, neither on poverty, nor health, nor corruption, nor security,” and doesn't trust the published polls that give Sheinbaum a clear advantage. about Galvez. The proportion of undecided people is still high and will be decisive. “Claudia, I think it doesn't reach 50%, maybe 40% or 45%, which is not a small amount, but I think the result will be closer between the two than what bought polls are saying now,” he says.
However, there is one factor that is also decisive for the population when it comes to voting: the economy. And the data is among the most promising Mexico has had in a long time, according to international organizations. The peso in full strength, strong investments, high salaries and the relocation of companies that favor it, with the United States at its side, the nearshoring mentioned above. “In fact, the minimum wage has risen above inflation and there is more relevant data. “I would say that Mexico has a great opportunity to do things right, unlike in 1994 with the free trade agreement with the United States and Canada, NAFTA, when the industry was not helped by policy measures to flourish,” says the analyst . economic Viri Ríos. In his opinion, candidates must understand this moment and expand the middle class in the new six-year term, as well as develop strategies to take advantage of the good economic moment.
2024 will also be the year in which the launch of major public works will begin: the Mayan Train, the Transisthmian Train, the new airports and highways. All of this will go to the president. However, Ríos does not believe López Obrador will be remembered as the great transformer. According to him, he did not manage to completely change the economy, which better management during the pandemic would have helped. “But he chose austerity measures and that was a mistake, otherwise the economy would have recovered faster.” And secondly: “No tax reform was carried out to increase the resources available to the state for the provision of services,” analyzes Ríos.
Crespo sums up the political legacy that will remain in the memory of citizens in a much more drastic way: “I wanted to look like Cárdenas, and he won't even be equal to Echeverría, and that's saying something,” he states emphatically.
Vanesa Romero Rocha hails this year as a year of “good democratic balance with strengthened institutions.” However, he focuses his interest on the “likely disappearance of the PRI as a national party” because he does not believe it will achieve registration. He believes that the votes are for their own political movements. He also believes that the PRD could lose its registration, both factors that would completely change the political landscape in Mexico, at least in terms of acronyms. On the other hand, Romero Rocha believes that 2024 could be the year in which the citizens' movement abandons its status as a hinge party to consolidate itself as an opposition party. “With relevant formations disappearing, there is a golden opportunity here,” says this analyst.
The other big political unknown opening up in 2024 is the electoral future of Mexico City, the most important square and one of the places where the greatest doubts remain. In the capital, the 2024 midterm elections have already put an initial damper on the left-wing majorities that have always characterized the city. The PAN and its allies PRI and PRD won some good mayoralties, including Cuauhtémoc, known as the capital within the capital, a major blow to Morenista prospects. Clara Brugada will now try to win back these voters for Morena, and the PAN's Santiago Taboada will do the same. But everything in the city is still very open, as the mayoral candidates and the votes they bring with them have not yet been decided.
The presidential race appears to offer more certainty. If you don't guess the winning party correctly, you can bet that 2024 will be the year in which citizens decide that, for the first time, a woman will lead Mexico's fortunes for the next six years.
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