Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia's dominance of college football's premier event may not be over yet, but it's taking a break this year. Instead, there is new blood after Michigan and Washington advanced to the national title game.
Since the BCS began in 1998, neither team has played for a national title.
“This is probably the first time I’ve been excited for a national championship game,” said a coordinator who played Washington earlier this year. “I’m so fascinated by this game because it’s like two opposites competing against each other.”
Michigan's tough line game and run-heavy offensive style will compete with Washington's high-flying pass-first attack on Monday night at NRG Stadium in Houston. The Athletic spoke with 10 head coaches, coordinators and assistants who played against either Michigan or Washington this season to gauge their opinions on the game and were granted anonymity to speak candidly about both teams.
No coach wanted Michigan or Washington to get a big win, but the majority picked Washington as the underdog to win. One coach was shocked to learn that Michigan was a four-point favorite. But another assistant said Michigan may be the better team in every way.
“It's tough to compete against Michigan, but I just think Washington is more battle-tested and they'll find a way to do it again,” one head coach said.
When Washington has the ball
One place there was no debate: the brilliance of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting and then turned in a masterful performance of 430 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Huskies to a semifinal win over Texas .
“Man, if you watch enough of his throws for an entire season, you're blown away by the (tight) windows and touch with which he throws,” one head coach said. “It’s rare because it’s remarkable to know when and how to throw it with that kind of touch. It’s as accurate as you’ve ever seen.”
Another head coach added: “Penix makes some amazing throws. Some “Holy Smokes” throws. His ability to decipher and read coverage is very special, and he has the speed necessary to achieve it. This is a gift.”
Every coach The Athletic spoke to raved about Penix, even coaches who competed against Penix when he wasn't at his best.
What makes Washington's offense so effective is the chemistry between Penix and his trio of receivers: Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja'Lynn Polk. They were targeted 20 times in the win over Texas and combined for 19 completions, 353 yards and two touchdowns.
“His release is so quick,” said an assistant who played against Washington this year. “Seven-on-seven in the off-season must be crazy. The rhythm and chemistry of these guys? Man. This guy has so much faith in these receivers that it doesn't make any sense. If you watch the film and see it when the ball is released, the receiver is not open. He pitches guys. He throws with a lot of confidence. I told our guys that we have to stay level with them all the way to the end of the field. There will be no signs of the ball coming.”
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Odunze has 87 catches for 1,553 yards and 13 touchdowns this year, including six catches for 125 yards in the win over Texas. He was a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award, given annually to college football's top receiver.
“He's just different. “His body control and the way he and Penix are in sync, whether it’s back-shoulder or over-the-top, they’re just in such a rhythm,” one head coach said.
Several coaches also raved about Washington's tight sets, which lead to difficult defensive angles and unique route combinations to open up receivers downfield.
Washington ranks second in the FBS with 39 passes of more than 30 yards this season, but only runs the ball 27.9 times per game. Only six FBS teams and just two from the Power 5 run it less frequently.
“I would try to force them to give the ball away,” said a coordinator who faced the Huskies this season. “But they throw the ball into man with two high safeties, or when you're down eight and still find yourself cornered.”
Another assistant added: “They're throwing the ball when they shouldn't be throwing it. “I think their game management is suspect, but they're finding ways to win.”
Two coaches pointed out that Oregon was the game in which Washington was most committed to its running game. When that happens, they said, an already elite attack becomes truly unstoppable.
Washington's skills as a receiver allow him to often play in max-protect systems with six or seven blockers. Even when teams blitz, the experienced unit, which won the Joe Moore Award this year as the best offensive line in the country, can keep Penix's pocket clean and allow him to pass the ball downfield.
“Their offensive tackles are unbelievable to me,” one head coach said. “If you want to beat them, I think it has to be on the inside, but you have to be willing to take risks.”
Texas' defense failed to record any sacks against the Huskies in the semifinal win.
“(Byron Murphy II) beat his man so many times, but Penix took a step to the side and got the ball out. He's such a good player. “Texas couldn't just play man, and then when they covered their guys perfectly, they didn't play the ball. That's where Michigan will probably have the advantage because their DBs play the ball better,” an assistant said.
Another assistant agreed.
“Michigan’s defense is basically just Texas with better DBs,” he said. “Washington’s strength was the kryptonite of Texas. If Washington wants to win this game, they’re going to have to throw it down the field.”
The Wolverines rank third nationally in opponent pass rating. Texas ranked 49th.
“I think Michigan will win. They just don’t give up on big plays,” said a coordinator who played against Michigan this season. “Washington exposed the Texas DBs. They are not elite DBs playing elite wide receivers. Michigan has elite DBs and an elite D line. (Mike Sainristil) is such a good player. He is everywhere. They are elite at all three levels. Michigan’s linebackers don’t miss a lot of tackles.”
Pressure is the easiest way to limit a passer's effectiveness, but doing so against Washington's front has proven difficult all season. The Huskies have given up just 11 sacks in 14 games. Only four teams gave up less.
“The other thing I laugh about is that they're one of the only O-lines other than Oregon State that doesn't wear knee braces, and those are the two best offensive lines in the conference,” one head coach said. “I wonder if there’s anything to that? These guys are athletic and powerful and can really move.”
It's nearly impossible to put pressure on Penix without leaving the secondary vulnerable. That leaves the defense with another option, several coaches said: confuse him.
“Coming from Michigan, I use a lot of disguises in my reporting. Before the snap I want Michael to see Cover 2, but actually I'm Cover 3. I want him to see man, but at the snap we get to Cover 3, Cover 4. You press on the corners, cover up and send pressure . That’s what Arizona State did. They were in his head for a bit. He didn’t have time to go through his reading and it wasn’t as clean as he would have liked.”
That 15-7 win over the Sun Devils was the only game this season in which Penix threw more than one interception and one of two games in which he was held without a touchdown pass, and the Huskies didn't have more than one Pass 21 meters.
“Michigan is so tough on defense,” said a coordinator who faced the Wolverines this season. “They made Alabama one-dimensional. Their D-line is so good. They made Bama look like an average O-line.”
Michigan's Josaiah Stewart had two tackles for loss while Jalen Milroe was sacked in the Rose Bowl. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)
When Penix, in his sixth year of college football, can clearly see coverages before the snap and jump into another play, it's a disaster for the defense.
“They have more Cover 3 zone hitters than you’ve ever seen,” one head coach said. “Schematically, these guys are incredible. I have the utmost respect for them.”
Washington has nine sixth-year players and has now won its last 10 games by 10 points or fewer. Several coaches pointed out that the Huskies showed no panic at all in close games this year.
“I do think (Michigan) is physical enough up front to keep (Penix) out of his spot and good enough at the back to at least endure disguises and play multiple things, but Washington always finds a way,” one said Coordinator who joined Washington this season.
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When Michigan has the ball
The coaches agree on one thing: The path to Michigan's success on offense is nothing special. It's the skill that kept them undefeated all season and the strength they drew on in the final 32 games of their win over Penn State in November:
Let the ball run.
It's not just the Wolverines' best offense. It's their best defense against Washington's best player.
“Michigan should just give them everything and keep Penix off the field,” an assistant said.
Another assistant said it was clear that Michigan was physically and mentally tougher than Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
“I don’t think there are many teams in football that are patient enough to run the football, but Michigan is,” one head coach said. “They prove that again and again. They let it affect you again and again. No one else in the Pac-12 will do that, except maybe Oregon State. If Texas had had (Monday) night, they probably would have been better off. They ripped off attacks from them.”
Two other coaches said Texas didn't rely heavily enough on its running game in the loss. The Longhorns ran for 180 yards on 28 carries and three touchdowns.
“You can run the ball on Washington. Texas could. If their backs don’t fumble, they’ll probably win the game.”
Washington ranks 86th in the FBS in yards per carry allowed.
Blake Corum has been the centerpiece of Michigan's offense and will play a key role in the game against Washington. (Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
“Michigan wants to run the ball and beat you downhill,” said a head coach who faced Michigan this year. “You have to run the ball against Washington and keep (Penix) off the field. Michigan’s defense is really good – their secondary is better than Washington’s – but their offense is going to be their best defense.”
Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy caused controversy among coaches. His play this season drew little criticism from coaches, but most were impressed with what he did to help Michigan beat Alabama.
“JJ hadn’t played this well in a long time, but he played really well against Alabama. I was more afraid of him on the road than in the bag. We tried to keep him in the bag. He’s really fast and throws really well on the run,” said a head coach who played against Michigan this year. “He can make all these precise throws from different arm angles. It's better to go right, but can still hurt you if you go left. He is deadly on his right.”
McCarthy generated Heisman buzz during the season and was No. 16 on Dane Brugler's current list of the top 50 NFL draft prospects.
“They have explosive playmakers, but chunk plays? JJ McCarthy is not that guy. I don't know what Harbaugh is talking about. He's crazy. If you like Kyle Shanahan, you might like him, but in college football I don't know if he'll get the job done,” one assistant said.
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Washington's defensive scheme, led by co-coordinators Chuck Morrell and William Inge, could confuse McCarthy, multiple coaches The Athletic spoke with said.
“They get everyone to the line and make the quarterback think a little bit. Then he sends everyone into coverage and you don't know whether he's playing zone or man. He can get creative with his disguises,” said a coordinator who competed against Washington this year. “He makes it seem like a zero-pressure situation where as an employee you have to have a lot of conversations about how to deal with it. He can bluff and fold. He made it look like Cover Zero, but it was Cover 3 and he was shooting people out. He had our QBs in trouble at times. If you can keep McCarthy guessing, I thought that's what they did with Ewers. Even though it was at the (13) yard line on the last two plays. He was mugged and heated. Quinn was throwing fade balls all the time because he didn’t know if it was a hot pressure or not.”
One assistant pointed to Michigan's third-down packages with three tight ends as a place where the offense has thrived this year. The Wolverines could continue to do this against the Huskies' defense by bringing the beef with them.
“They do some really good things. They bring in (tight end Max Bredeson) and he creates problems. He's a stallion. We treated him like a full-back. “He’s the difference maker in these packages and they’re doing some unique things with him and all the pre-snap moves they’re making,” the assistant said. “He’s a great weapon for them. He explodes on contact and is able to keep his feet moving and get rid of guys.”
So who will win?
Overall, the coaches weren't sure how the game would turn out, even though they were betting on Washington rather than Michigan. They said it was a product of the contrasting styles the two teams play.
One coach said that if Washington can make big plays early and build a double-digit lead, Michigan's lack of explosiveness would mean the Wolverines could break their scheme and have difficulty recovering.
Michigan has only 19 plays of more than 30 yards this season, which ranks 112th nationally.
Georgia and Alabama, copies of each other, are easier to predict. But with the Huskies' positional talent juxtaposed with Michigan's dominance on both lines, several coaches expected a more entertaining national title game than some SEC-heavy games in the past where teams had similar plans.
“It’s something people want to see,” an aide said. “There are a lot of variables.”
(Top photo: Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)