With less than two weeks to November 8th, Republicans appear certain to retake the House of Representatives and the Senate is within their reach.
Having trouble keeping up with our neighbors’ politics on the eve of the midterm elections? It’s not your fault, not much is normal in this circus.
However, as we get closer to the vote, it appears that the results will be in line with what we would have expected had American politics been a long, calm river.
A lot of noise
In September, I almost fell asleep during a workshop at the American Political Science Association convention on midterm election projections, as every speaker was so confident that Republicans would take over both houses of Congress.
With the electorate generally acting as a thermostat, the Presidential Party almost always suffers medium-term losses. In 2022, President Biden’s unpopularity and persistent inflation will reinforce this trend.
The rest is basically just noise… but this year there is a lot of noise. Over the summer, the Supreme Court abortion decision favored Democrats, Joe Biden multiplied the good moves, indictments against Donald Trump mounted, gas prices fell and concerns reigned over the threat to democracy posed by Trump and his supporters.
All hopes seemed high for Democrats until oil started to rally again (thanks, MBS and Putin!) and voters pushed abortion and Trump’s legal battle to the back burner.
It’s getting hot
Amidst this cacophony, tight polls in several states suggest anything can happen. In important Senate elections in Georgia, Ohio or Pennsylvania, televised debates could have been decisive, but no candidate stood out.
While Republicans are scoring with campaigns focused on the economy and crime, Democrats are showing signs of division. Curiously, the national Democratic Party refuses to fund certain candidates who could cause surprises, like Tim Ryan in Ohio.
Money and votes… early
In Ohio, a state that switched from Obama to Trump and where the other senator is a Democrat, Trumpist JD Vance’s campaign is afloat thanks to the backing of a few billionaires. There, as elsewhere, the Republicans’ well-stocked coffers allow them to bombard the undecided with advertising.
For the millions of voters who have already voted, however, this offensive comes too late. Participation in the primary election is a good omen for the Democrats, who are counting on a higher turnout than usual.
Several close races are decided long after the polls close, fueling Donald Trump’s mill of lies about voter fraud.
With hundreds of candidates who share the former President’s views on democracy and a good chance of victory, the stakes are high in this election. With Senate control in danger of being decided in the second round in Georgia, the circus will continue well past November 8… and into 2024.
