Both sides – Israel and Hamas – took advantage of the week-long ceasefire to reorganize their troops. The dramatic humanitarian situation of the civilian population in Gaza is causing pressure on Israel to increase daily, including from its most important ally, the USA. Israel emphasizes that it shows the greatest possible consideration for the civilian population.
The high death toll and the virtual expulsion of the population from large parts of Gaza are putting Israel on the defensive internationally. On the other hand, in the densely populated coastal strip, Israel can only take successful measures against Hamas and, above all, its underground infrastructure in areas where there are as few civilians as possible.
Mediation negotiations continue in the background. Currently, new short-term ceasefires cannot be ruled out. Israel wants to at least release all women hostages held by Hamas. Earlier in the week, CIA chief William Burns, Mossad chief David Barnea and Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel also met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Abdulrachman Al Thani in Qatar .
“All against all”
According to Israeli media reports, a possible “all against all” agreement – that is, all those abducted by Hamas, including Israeli soldiers – was also negotiated for the release of all Palestinian prisoners and a longer ceasefire. . According to public broadcaster Kan, it is a relatively well-formulated agreement. However, Hamas’ demands are not known.
In addition to freeing the hostages, Israel’s stated war objective is the “destruction” of Hamas, even though – at least publicly – it has never been precisely defined what that means. Given growing international pressure, the government fears that a ceasefire lasting several weeks or months will mean the suspension of the ground offensive and heavy airstrikes. This is exactly what Hamas is speculating about.
Portal/Staff Many homes in Gaza City were completely destroyed by Israeli airstrikes
North Gaza as a bargaining chip?
Israel wants to destroy the remaining Hamas command centers in the north and, in particular, the extensive tunnel structure. Furthermore, the land offensive is being expanded south, initially mainly to Khan Yunis. The former head of the Shin Bet national intelligence service, Juval Diskin, recently told Kan that the Gaza Strip would likely be divided by war. Although Hamas will continue to be in charge of the south, the Israeli army will have to remain in the north for a long time until a solution for an international civil and military administration is found.
Former national security adviser Giora Eiland also mentioned a longer occupation of the north as a possible strategy. Just as Hamas uses Israeli hostages as bargaining chips, Israel can use the occupation and subsequent destruction of Gaza City as a means of pressure in exchange. Hamas cannot sell the loss of part of the Gaza Strip and the plight of millions of residents as a long-term success.
Deterrence as a security doctrine
According to Eiland, the destruction of Gaza City and possibly other cities in Gaza could also provide the necessary deterrence. One reason for Israel’s massive crackdown on Hamas, with thousands of civilian casualties, is concern that the military has lost deterrence as a result of the Hamas attack, which left more than 1,200 people dead.
The fact that Israel’s enemies, whose aim is the destruction of the State, are convinced of its military superiority and therefore at least avoid a major attack, is a central part of Israel’s security doctrine in order to ensure its existence in a largely hostile environment.
Therefore, from Israel’s perspective, a clear victory over Hamas is essential. All the more so as the terrorist group is considered the weakest adversary – compared to Hezbollah and Iran, for example.
Before the internal political upheavals in Israel
How evolution will continue depends on considerations at various levels and parties. The complex situation of interests arises due to the long and complicated history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but also to current geostrategic developments that could be guided in a decisive direction by this war.
Many things will change internally in Israel. It is not completely clear how long the current right-wing religious government will be in power – and whether, depending on the course of the war, there will be new elections quickly or a sudden change of government. It is not entirely clear how the Hamas attack and its aftermath will affect the division in Israeli society that became apparent last year – and the judicial restructuring planned by the current government.
APA/AFP/Brendan Smialowski Joe Biden met with victims of the Hamas attack that killed more than 1,000 people during his visit to Israel in October
Palestinians divided
Palestinians have been deeply divided for decades, with Hamas and the Palestinian Authority in an ongoing struggle for power. Both also have credibility problems among their own population. The release of Palestinian prisoners is obviously a success for Hamas. Many accuse the autonomous authority of deep corruption and failure in the struggle to create its own Palestinian state. Plans for the autonomous authority to take over the administration of Gaza are unrealistic, at least in the short term, because it lacks strength and competence. Such a move would also be interpreted as betrayal within the Palestinians after they were stripped of power by the Israeli army.
Colonel Sandtner on new fighting in Gaza
After the ceasefire expired, fighting resumed in Gaza. Colonel Berthold Sandtner, from the Austrian National Defense Academy, was a guest at ZIB2.
Biden’s dilemma
US President Joe Biden, who immediately and resolutely supported Israel on October 7, has a relatively concrete idea: he wants to use the crisis to successfully sideline the crisis – including that of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – during years to revive the two-state system. solution. Of course, this requires a reform and strengthening of autonomous authority, as well as a change of government in Israel (Netanyahu and his right-wing to right-wing extremist coalition partners vehemently reject a Palestinian state, he notes).
Biden sees the extensive elimination of Hamas as a prerequisite for both. He therefore supports Israel’s ground offensive – although Washington is exerting pressure so that fewer Palestinian civilians die: according to Palestinian information, there are already around 15,000 dead. And the United States is appealing for much more humanitarian aid to help the population of Gaza, about half of whom have fled north and been housed in emergency camps as winter approaches. Ahead of the 2024 US election year, Biden is also under intense pressure within his Democratic Party due to his clear support for Israel.
Portal/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa North Gaza refugee camp: rain, lack of toilets and running water are causing devastating conditions
Geopolitical factors
Biden’s broader calculation is geopolitical: by largely eliminating Hamas and reviving Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, he hopes to strengthen Arab allies and thus the US position in the Middle East, as New York recently reported Teams. Commentator Thomas Friedman, who is considered close to Biden, said.
The ceasefire has expired in Gaza
After the temporary ceasefire expired, the Israeli army resumed fighting in the Gaza Strip. Around 200 Hamas terrorist targets were reportedly hit on Friday alone.
Biden hopes that the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, interrupted by the Hamas attack, can still be saved. All of this would simultaneously weaken the main regional enemy, Iran, and its allies – from Russia to Syria, the Houthis in Yemen and the various terrorist militias, especially Hezbollah and Hamas. If the White House manages to turn the serious crisis into an opportunity, it could also weaken the influence of China, the US’s most important counterpart, in the region.
Shortly
Of course, all of this presupposes a quick end to Israel’s war in Gaza – at least in its current destructive form. Because the (Republican) campaign for the US primary elections is gaining more and more momentum – and by July at the latest, when Biden’s Republican opponent is officially nominated, Biden will become a “lame duck”, in other words, a president who can hardly do anything politically. At least that’s what many Israeli commentators assume: Netanyahu could work to prolong the war against Hamas as long as possible in order to maintain his own power.