It is “probable” that the EU states will agree on the architrave of a new migration and asylum pact tomorrow in Luxembourg, eight years after the 2015 migration crisis, which finally revealed the inadequacy of the Dublin system acceptable balance between solidarity and responsibility. “I’m optimistic,” says a senior EU official on the eve of the Home Affairs Council to be held in the Grand Duchy, “as a French colleague says, it’s impossible but doable.” The chances of success are “50/50” , he adds. On the table is the Council’s negotiating position on the regulation on asylum and migration management and on the regulation on asylum procedures, two key dossiers of the EU pact that Ursula von der Leyen’s commission put on the table in September 2020 after Jean-Claude Juncker’s The Commission, under pressure, has failed to force states to accept mandatory relocations of asylum seekers from countries where they first arrived. The two regulations will then be negotiated with the European Parliament, the EU’s other co-legislator.
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The cornerstone is the move from mandatory resettlements, scuttled by the Donald Tusk-backed Visegrád group in the last legislature, to “mandatory solidarity” with hard-pressed countries consisting of resettlements and financial contributions (to the tune of €20,000 for…) (according to the latest proposal, any person who has not been relocated) or in equipment useful for controlling migration flows. It is what Mediterranean countries once called “solidarity à la carte”, but it is also the only compromise that can realistically be reached: time has shown that forced resettlement does not find a majority in the Council. The massive influx of refugees from Ukraine is also contributing to climate change, a senior official said, giving countries previously relatively immune to migration a first-hand experience of what it means to cope with massive influxes of people. The issue is so politically sensitive and positions so different between countries that it is very difficult to find a “landing zone” for a compromise that satisfies everyone, including the extreme wings. That’s why the presidency decided to proceed with a qualified majority, “otherwise we will never find an agreement,” explains a high-ranking EU official.
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Countries are currently divided between “some” who are in favor of the present compromise, “few” who are against (Hungary and Poland are certainly against) and “many” who would be in favor but with a view to further concessions. Italy should be placed in this last group: our country’s stance, given its size and centrality on the migration issue, will be crucial to the outcome of tomorrow’s Council meeting. According to an EU diplomatic source, it is “possible” but certainly “not desirable” to reach a qualified majority on this dossier without Italy. Negotiations are therefore moving forward, but “negotiations must end at a certain point” and “that moment is tomorrow,” explains a senior EU official. Using qualified majority voting on a politically sensitive issue is always a risk, but the source assures the EU has the “means” to enforce the laws it passes.