President Javier Milei was willing to double the bet every day of his term, plunging Argentina into an adventure with unpredictable results. He signed a decree of “necessity and urgency” to repeal 360 laws that have been in force for years or decades. And this Wednesday he sent a bill to Congress, which he grandly titled: “Fundamentals and starting points for the freedom of Argentines.” But neither his opponents, nor his collaborators, nor Argentines in general, nor Milei himself know what will happen next will happen.
Let's remember, the curly-haired libertarian has only been at Casa Rosada for 19 days. But he plunged his management into a vertigo that stands in stark contrast to the frugality of his predecessor, Alberto Fernández, who was as sluggish as he was indecisive and practically irrelevant. Not even his people listened to him when he spoke, nor did they pay attention when the other two partners in the Peronist coalition, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Sergio Massa, moved their cards.
Milei is the opposite. During his less than three weeks in office, he promoted a wide range of tax, economic, financial, labor, pension, social, political, electoral and even sports reforms. How is that? In the decree “Necessity and Urgency,” he devoted an entire chapter to the creation of “sports corporations” that would fundamentally change football clubs as we know them.
However, Milei's “revolution” seems at times to be more conservative than libertarian, and therein may lie the seeds of its eventual debacle. It will depend on his talents, abilities and luck – which, it must be recognized, combined to bring him to the presidency – as well as how traditional political parties, the courts and civil society react to the proposals with enthusiasm and concern. .
The examples are eloquent. In a country that, according to Milei, itself has an annual inflation rate of 300%, the libertarian proposed abolishing the automatic updating of pensions and leaving them to the discretion of the executive itself, which would be based on “fairness and economic sustainability”. ” “.
Another example? Milei proposed free competition between neighborhood pharmacies or bookstores and large chain stores, which, with other financial support and other cost and advertising regulations, can break the back of small businesses that are little more than small family businesses.
Another example? Milei wants to unblock imports and wants local producers to compete with their competitors in the world and even export, but with a tax burden that prevents them from competing and, to make matters worse, it also wants a 15% withholding tax on exports that were previously considered products of the regional economy, and advocates an increase in the withholding tax for flour and oils from 31% to 33%.
One final example? Milei does not rule out the reintroduction of the income tax that affects the Argentine middle class, although as a deputy he himself voted for the abolition of this tax during the presidential election campaign – that is, just a few weeks ago – while at the same time asking Congress to approve an agreement with Luxembourg to avoid double taxation, which will benefit some large companies and entrepreneurs.
The question now is whether the DNU and this megabill will pass the filters of Congress – where Milei has only 38 out of 257 representatives and 7 out of 72 senators – and the scrutiny of the judiciary, where it accumulates claims of unconstitutionality that many renowned lawyers see Reason: from Andrés Gil Domínguez, Daniel Sabsay and Raúl Ferreyra to Félix Loñigro, Antonio María Hernández or Ricardo Gil Lavedra, among others.
Equally or more worrisome, however, is whether Milei's initiatives will erode the credit voters gave him in the Nov. 19 runoff. Because the libertarian arrived with a promise to act against the “political caste” by pointing out the causes of Argentina's decline, but when he took office he said that “almost” all efforts were made by the “caste”. “, then he claimed that it would be 60% of the caste and 40% of the population, and now it seems to be a different story.
However, as long as this popular support continues, the president claims that he won the second round of elections with 55% of the vote and that he has a positive image of almost 60%, a support that he is stoking with populist speeches aimed at cornering the leaders. Opponent. He accuses them of corruption because they refuse to support his secret initiatives. “Those who like to argue and argue about the comma and all that are looking for bribes,” he said. “Coimas” means “bribery” in Argentina.
Milei also combined the bitterest pills of his offensive with other sweeter ones for the palate of a part of the electorate, such as his proposals to restrict and punish street protests that impede free movement through the country's streets, or to charge foreigners a registration fee to come to study at Argentine public universities.
In short, the libertarian is convinced that he is achieving a masterstroke and will not compromise, even at the risk of “crashing the merry-go-round,” as we say in Argentina. That is, ruining what seemed unbreakable. But Milei is betting everything that inflation will fall, the economy will calm down and the situation will be reversed, although the first months of 2024 look very complicated. However, it must arrive in April, when dollars from the soybean crop would theoretically arrive.
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