by Federico Fubini and Francesco Verderami
Secretary of Defense Guerini: Our sovereignty at stake. And a piece of GDP
At the European summit in Versailles on March 10 and then again last Friday in Brussels, Emmanuel Macron had a point in the minutes of the conversation that can hardly be overlooked in the official communiqués. The French leader proposes a new European instrument based on the recovery model. It could be called an Autonomy Fund if used to fund both defense spending and that to break energy dependency on Russia. Or it could only cover military budgets when nothing else could.
An implicit goal, after three quarters of a century of latency, to save Germany from a leap that leaves it alone at a different level than the rest of Europe. Even before the full €100 billion announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz this month on defense is spent, the expected doubling this year puts Berlin’s military budget on a different scale: more than double France’s, quadruple France’s, €25.9 billion euros of Italy. Holland is also open to Macron’s idea, although it wants to relax national budgetary rules. Germany, on the other hand, is holding back for the time being before negotiations begin in earnest after the second round of the French presidential elections at the end of April. In the meantime, Berlin has already ordered 35 models of the American Lockheed Martin F35 for over two billion, proving that it does not have blind faith in European defense projects.
Rome accelerates
In view of the national debt, the noncomparable figures are also changing in Rome. Prime Minister Mario Draghi and Defense Minister Lorenzo Guerini want to gradually bring military spending closer to 2% of gross product, in line with the commitments signed in the Atlantic Alliance. Starting from the current level, this means adding nine billion by the end, but already in this term the defense budget must increase from 1.54% today to 1.65%: an increase of almost two billion in 2023. Modernization is needed in the defense sector , to keep up with technologies says Lorenzo Guerini otherwise our sovereignty will always depend on others. At this stage, the reticence announced by Giuseppe Conte does not worry, also because the leader of the 5 stars promises in the April economic and financial document a vote against the increase in defense spending. It would be the wrong time: Concrete references never appear in such texts, since the decisions will then be made with the budget law in the autumn. Of course, given the new framework conditions in Europe, public opinion must also evolve. Defense culture needs to grow in Italy. The legacies of the past must be overcome in order to get out of the old warversuspacifism dualism, Guerini notes. Among other things, the minister adds, investments in defense lead to technological development, quality jobs and growth. For example, hundreds of places are being created in Italy to build the F35s ordered by Switzerland.
The European paradox
Italy can play the role of aggregator in Europe because the situation has now become paradoxical. Germany and Britain each spend more on defense than Russia in absolute terms. And the seven most important countries on the continent together have a military budget four and a half times that of Moscow. Nonetheless, the conventional and nuclear forces commanded by the Kremlin remain clearly superior. Italy and Germany together have very few dozen working tanks, while Russia seems to have no borders. Only France and Britain have ballistic missiles in significant numbers, but Russia appears to have many thousands. And so with fighter jets or men deployable on the ground.
What matters is the fact that Moscow spends nearly 5% of its gross domestic product on the army, while few European governments match or exceed 2%. Production costs and wages matter much less for Moscow: one euro spent in Russia generates much more military capacity. It also weighs on the fact that European governments are not synchronized, which is why there is overlap and wasted investment. For example, two competing sixthgeneration fighter models are currently under development: the Future Combat Air System (FrenchGermanSpanish) and the Tempest (ItalianBritishSwedish). Joint European projects have fallen to just 11% of investment in recent years. Joint agreements are needed in the defense industry says Andrea Margelletti of the International Studies Center in Rome. But only political decisions can produce them.
March 28, 2022 (Modified March 29, 2022 | 08:13)
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