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The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, predicted in early February that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could take Kyiv in just “72 hours,” a far cry from the months-long conflict Russia and Ukraine are currently locked in .
Milley delivered the dire prognosis for Ukraine to Congress during closed hearings on February 2-3, saying Ukraine would likely lose 15,000 troops compared to Russia’s 4,000. Milley came to Congress on Tuesday to make another prediction, this time saying the war in Ukraine could last “years”.
Rep. Bill Keating, D-Mass., urged Milley what he now thought the conflict’s timeline was.
“It’s a bit early,” Milley replied. “Although we have been at war for over a month, there is still a lot left of the ground war in Ukraine. But I think this is a very long-term conflict, and I think it’s at least measured in years. I don’t know about a decade, but at least years for sure.”
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Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark A. Milley during a House Armed Services Committee on Capitol Hill on September 29, 2021 in Washington, DC (Olivier Douliery – Pool/Getty Images)
Milley made the revised prediction during testimony before the House Armed Services Committee. Members of Congress pressed Milley on what the US could have done to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine.
“Frankly, other than the involvement of US forces in Ukraine proper, I’m not sure it was deterrent,” Milley testified.
“This has been a long-term goal of his for years,” he added. “I think the idea of deterring Putin from invading Ukraine – deterring him through the United States – would have required the use of US forces and risked an armed conflict with Russia, which I would not recommend.”
People watch as smoke billows into the air after shelling in Odessa, Ukraine, Sunday April 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris)
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The off-base predictions reflect the inaccuracy of President Biden’s administration’s predictions prior to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan last year. Two days before Kabul fell to the Taliban, government officials predicted Afghan security forces would repel the extremist group until at least late autumn 2021.
“So the question now is, where do you go from here? The jury is still out. But the likelihood of the Taliban overrunning it all and owning the whole country is highly unlikely,” Biden said on July 8, a month before Kabul fell.