The San Diego Padres on Sunday secured an extension with star third baseman Manny Machado that will keep him in town beyond this winter if he would have been eligible to terminate his contract. Machado is just the latest of the upcoming free agents to have found an expansion to his liking by joining teammate and right-hander Yu Darvish and Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers.
These expansions – plus potential future ones – have slimmed down what once looked like a jam-packed free agent class. However, that doesn’t mean the 2023-24 market is without its share of interesting players. With that in mind, let’s take another look at a hasty ranking of the top 10 players in the class. Keep in mind that we’re doing our best to make educated guesses about which players will unsubscribe. (And note that we’re reusing the attributions from our first spin for this exercise in early January.)
Now let’s continue.
Ohtani is an unprecedented talent heading for an unprecedented payday. How much are teams willing to pay a player who excels at both pitching and hitting? Barring an untimely injury, we’ll probably find out next winter. Ohtani has insisted he wants to win a World Series, something the Angels are not well positioned for. The Dodgers and Mets, among others, are expected to pursue him if and when he becomes available. In other words, Ohtani doesn’t have to choose between riches and victories.
2. Julio Urías, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Urías will enter his walk year after amassing the fourth-best ERA+ among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched during the pandemic era. Take into account that he will only be 27 years old; how he throws with his left hand; and how the Dodgers have plenty of financial flexibility for the New Year, and it all seems to bode well for his chances of a big payday.
Nola is a few years older than Urías and his pandemic stats aren’t as brilliant due to a 2021 campaign. Nonetheless, he is an established workhorse with multiple top five Cy Young Awards finishes. Nola should be able to land a lucrative long-term deal, whether with the Phillies or elsewhere.
Chapman rebounded from a career-worst performance in 2021, in his first season with Toronto, by 115 OPS+ in 155 games and hitting 27 home rings. Of course, he’s not only an above-average hitter, but also one of the best fielding third basemen in the majors. Provided Chapman avoids another disappointing performance like the season before last, he should be a hot commodity.
We expect this to be an over or under review of Rosario. He’s had the best season of his career, but it’s likely teams will have differing opinions on his defensive prowess and the sustainability of his offensive wins. After all, Rosario has struck more than four times as often as last year. A lot could depend on how he fares in his 27-year campaign this year.
6. Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
The market tends to be unfriendly to 30-year-old right-right first basers. It’s unfortunate news for Hoskins, who will celebrate his 30th birthday in March and hasn’t played in any other position since 2018. (Remember when he played left out of deference to Carlos Santana?) His 127 OPS+ during the pandemic era ranks eighth among first basemen behind Matt Olson and José Abreu. He’s just not the kind of transcendent thug needed to break through market bias.
Happ may not make it to the free hand as the rumor mill is dying for the Cubs to extend him from last summer. An agreement has not yet been reached, so we feel compelled to include him on this list. Happ had an encouraging season in the sense that he reduced his strikeout rate, bringing it down to a career-best 23.2 percent. He was still walking and bouncing quite a bit, although a return to his previous levels would send his stocks skyrocketing.
Good midfielders are hard to find these days, whether as free agents or otherwise. Bader is a defensive demon who has scored above average in two of the last three seasons. The biggest knock against him is his durability. He’s been limited to 239 games over the past three seasons through injury, and he’s never appeared in as many as 140 competitions in a big league campaign. A season where he’s consistently vigorous and healthy would do a lot to increase his stock.
9. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
timing is everything. Giolito has received the Cy Young Award three of the last four seasons. Unfortunately, the exception was last year when all of his pitches fared much worse than in 2021. If Giolito can return to his form in 2023, his greater track record will give him a chance to break into the top five as a durable above-average starter.
10. Gio Urshela, INF, Los Angeles Angels
Urshela will play for his third team in three seasons. He has been an above-average hitter in three of the last four years, but there is lively debate about the quality of his defense. While he has a good reputation, advanced metrics like Statcast’s Outs Above Average and Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Prevented both rank his glove as inferior in recent years. It only takes a team to believe he’s a true two-way contributor to make him a big deal and justify that rank.