Opening Day is still six days away, marking that time of the year when teams tackle the most important matter of their brightest young players. We are, of course, talking about plotting how they can manipulate their tenure and suppress their wages. Earlier this week, the Pittsburgh Pirates demoted top contender Oneil Cruz for reasons so fair they refuse to explain; Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds took the other route by announcing that Hunter Greene will start the year on the rotation. (Cruz and Greene were both ranked as top 26 prospects by CBS Sports this spring.)
Over the coming days, more top prospects will learn if they’ll go to purgatory with Cruz for the crime of being too skilled, or if they’ll do like Greene and crack the opening-day list. With that in mind, CBS Sports wanted to take this opportunity to “predict” when some of baseball’s other top prospects would debut.
We’ll do wild hacks at the exact time to make sure we look as silly as possible, but the real meaning is in our container designations. We will outline if the player debuts on opening day (meaning he breaks camp with the big team); or whether they debut after the additional year of control or the Super Two deadlines (the former is about two weeks into the season; the latter is usually sometime in June); or whether they will debut for the stretch run, which means as late as August or September.
Below are debut estimates for the eight members of our top 10 who 1) haven’t played in the majors yet (so no Shane Baz) and 2) have a good chance of making the show this season (no Francisco Álvarez). . As always, this exercise is for entertainment only. If you don’t like our response for your team’s prospect, don’t yell at us; yell at your CEO for not having the guts to do the right thing.
rutschman overworked his triceps in mid-March, shattering the unlikely scenario that he would have started the season in the majors. “Unlikely” not because ofrutschman’s perceived willingness, but because of Mike Elias’ nihilistic managerial tendencies. Another team’s manager joked that Eliasrutschman could use his injury as an excuse to delay his debut until August. We don’t think that’s going to happen, but rest assured that this extra year of control will see the Orioles gain control at the expense ofrutschman. Our super-specific guess is that he’ll take his first hits in the big league on May 2 when the Orioles host the Minnesota Twins as part of a long home game.
Royals manager Dayton Moore is one of the few decision-makers who seems willing to forego manipulating service time in order to do what is right for the player, the team and the fans. Moore was open about Witt breaking camp with the royals last spring and there’s no reason to think he’s changed his mind now. Therefore, we predict that Witt will be in the lineup for the Royals against the Cleveland Guardians on April 7th.
You can make a convincing argument that Rodríguez should have gotten up last season when the Mariners started Dylan Moore during their playoff push. Seattle refrained from hitting the Rodríguez button back then, but we don’t think they’ll be waiting long this year. Jarred Kelenic debuted on May 13 last season; We predict Rodríguez will top that timeline and make his first major league swing on May 5 during a home game against the Tampa Bay Rays.
As withrutschman, it’s all but certain that Rodriguez will open in Triple-A and spend at least the first two weeks there. It’ll be difficult to keep him down long, but the Orioles’ schedule calls for them to be out April 22 (or two weeks into the season’s start) through April 29. Could Baltimore get Rodriguez’s first start on the road? Or would they save him for the April 29 game against the Boston Red Sox? We’re leaning toward the latter scenario, but we’d prefer they brought it up even sooner.
If the Tigers are going to make a serious playoff push, they need Greene and Torkelson in the lineup ASAP. The Tigers didn’t go through the motions this winter by signing a short-term outfielder or first baseman to block their progress. We’re taking that as a sign that both will be making their debuts on April 8th against the Chicago White Sox.
While most players on this list are at risk of having their service time legitimately spoofed, we don’t think the same is true of Moreno. He has less than 200 professional games under his belt, including just 35 over A-Ball. The Blue Jays would be entitled to let him spend some of his time in Triple-A. We suspect he’s still making his debut, but maybe later in the season. For posterity’s sake, let’s say July 26, or Toronto’s first home game (against the St. Louis Cardinals) after the break.
Had Abrams not broken his leg (along with other injuries) in a collision last summer, he might already have made his major debut. Because of this injury and the missed time, we believe the Padres Abrams will get used to the grind in the minors again. For how long? That could depend on how well Ha-Seong Kim plays in Fernando Tatis Jr’s absence. The Padres are under pressure to win this season and we wouldn’t be surprised if that means Abrams being promoted to the majors on May 5 or before a game against the Miami Marlins that marks the start of a seven-game home game marked stand.