Bryce Harper’s injury in San Diego on June 25 had a chance to sink the Phillies’ season, much like Andrew McCutchen’s injury in San Diego in June 2019 did just that.
The Phillies won their first game without Harper — an important win because it won the season series against the Padres, which could matter for tiebreak purposes — then lost back-to-back to the Braves, going 39-37.
At this point, the Phillies were their best player, trailing behind seven teams in the National League. They were two games behind the Giants, three behind the Cardinals, 4½ behind the Brewers, and 6½ behind the Padres.
They have since won 21-11 to overtake the Giants, Brewers and Padres and reach a tie with the Cardinals. According to Baseball-Reference’s simulator, the Phillies now have a 92.8% chance of making the playoffs.
There’s a lot of baseball left — 54 games, exactly a third of the season — but the Phils are playing well together, receiving contributions from across the roster and heading towards the playoffs in a way they haven’t since 2011.
“It’s nothing against the teams we’ve had here in the past, but I think we have a better team,” said Rhys Hoskins, who homed for a fourth straight game on Sunday and was feeling good after being beaten by one was hit in the right bicep in mid-90s fastball.
“I think we’re deeper. I think with the additions we made at deadline we just got more good players. You look at teams that have won and won a lot, especially later in the year, everyone is deep. One guy can go down and another man steps in. I like our depth this year and I think it will really help us and hopefully carry us into October.
The Phillies’ 2018-2021 rosters were expensive with stellar individual players, but the team was top-heavy and lacked depth in key areas. Harper wore them for three months last summer. That summer production came from just about every area – some nights it was the starter, some nights the bullpen, some nights a young positional player, some nights a high-priced vet, some nights all of the above.
Since Harper’s injury, the Phillies have hit the fifth most homers and hit the sixth most runs in the majors. They have the seventh-best record, but only three teams — the Astros, Dodgers and Mariners — have a record more than a game better than the Phillies’ 21-13 without Harper.
“I think we’re better prepared,” said coach Rob Thomson after Sunday’s win. “Every team is different. I know we haven’t played well in September for the last few years, but every team was a little bit different, it wasn’t exactly the same group. This is a different group. There’s a lot of leadership in the clubhouse and many winners on the field.”
Only 19 of the Phillies’ 54 remaining games are against teams with winning records, and three of those games are the last three of the season with the Astros, who could already be in dormancy by the time they or the Yankees have cemented the top seed in the American League until then.
This weekend’s results not only cost the Phillies a spot in the wildcard standings, they also made the Braves catchable. While the Phils swept the Nationals, the Braves lost four of five to the Mets. The Phillies are now three behind the Braves with seven more head-to-heads all remaining September 16-25. While there’s little difference between second and third wildcard spots, the top wildcard team gets home field advantage in their first playoff series, making it worth chasing to the end.