The number of Covid cases in the US continues to decline steadily, and while some other countries have seen a recent surge in cases, US officials are assuring Americans that there will be no new surge this spring.
Still, America’s most profitable vaccine makers are pushing for a fourth vaccine, insisting it’s needed.
Earlier this month, Moderna submitted data to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to roll out a fourth dose of the vaccine to all American adults. The move was unexpected, especially since CEO Stéphane Bansel had previously said that another dose probably wouldn’t be needed until the fall.
Bancel appeared on CNBC on Thursday. Scream boxretracting previous projections and stating that the next wave of the virus could hit America “very soon”.
His statements come as the U.S. is reporting 30,733 cases per day, down four percent from last week and 95 percent short of Omicron’s peak surge in mid-January. However, there are signs that this may soon change, with nine states now recording an increase in cases over the past two weeks.
In the UK, cases have also begun to flare up in recent weeks, after several weeks of plummeting rates. The US is often weeks behind the UK, putting US officials on high alert that there is a possibility that the same fate will befall the US.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, then the country’s top infectious disease expert and often a more cautious voice during the pandemic, assured Americans on Wednesday that while cases could increase slightly, a full surge like the one the US experienced over the winter was unlikely.
“Several countries around the world are already doing fourth-dose testing in high-risk people,” Bancel said.
“There is now a big wave of BA.2 option in Europe as many public health experts say it should start in the US very soon.”
However, more and more experts are saying otherwise.
“I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we see some uptick,” Fauci said at a Washington Post event this week.
“I really don’t see, unless something changes drastically, that there’s going to be a big spike.”
Experts at Harvard University said the BA.2 stealth variant, believed to be responsible for the recent spike in cases, probably already started the spike in America if it was going to do so anytime soon.
“In fact, there is no evidence of an increase in cases or deaths in the region that is consistent with the increase in BA.2 infections we are seeing,” Bronwyn McInnis, director of genomic pathogen surveillance at Harvard’s Broad Institute, told the Harvard Gazette. week.
The “hidden” variant, nicknamed for its ability to evade detection with some sequencing techniques, is considered the most contagious version of Covid, but it’s just as mild as the Omciron BA.1 version that took control of the virus. world last year.
BA.2 accounts for 35 percent of active Covid cases in the US, with BA.1 still dominating, according to the latest data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) last week.
However, BA.2’s share of Covid infections in America is on the rise, with the variant accounting for just 23 percent of cases in the previous week.
Moderna CEO Stefan Bansel (left) said Thursday morning that Americans will need a fourth COVID-19 shot to protect against the upcoming virus surge. Dr. Anthony Fauci (right), one of the most cautious voices during the pandemic, does not believe the surge in Covid cases will turn into a full surge.
While this has not yet had a significant impact on the number of cases, the data from abroad cited by Bancel is of some concern.
In some countries where the number of cases has been declining for several months, such as the UK, France and Denmark, infection rates suddenly started to rise last week. However, it appears that cases in these countries have stabilized and growth has stalled for now.
Internationally, the World Health Organization (WHO) reports that more than 12 million cases of Covid were reported worldwide last week, up seven percent from the previous week.
However, the death toll dropped by 23 percent to less than 33,000 – another sign of the virus’s decline in deaths.
The rise in cases has been entirely concentrated in the Western Pacific region, where daily infections jumped 23 percent last week. In Europe, the number of infections has stabilized after a slight rise of two percent last week.
In the US, deaths remain low, falling below 1,000 a day for the first time since August on Thursday, and are down 18 percent in the past week.
In any case, a fourth dose may be unavoidable, even if the number of cases remains low. Fauci, Bancel and Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla were among those who said the extra dose was in the pipeline for months, and Bourla even said annual injections would be needed in the next decade to fight the pandemic.
While vaccines are considered safe and effective by health officials around the world and have likely saved millions of lives over the past year, Pfizer and Moderna’s goals in vaccine deployment are not entirely humane.
Each of the companies has made billions of dollars selling vaccines in the US and around the world.
Pfizer, its partner BioNTech and Moderna estimate total COVID-19 vaccine sales this year at $50 billion, and those numbers will rise even higher if fourth doses are approved.
Shortly before Moderna filed, Pfizer filed with the FDA to seek approval for a fourth Covid shot for Americans aged 65 and over.
Both companies also hope to introduce vaccinations for young children in the near future. Currently, the Moderna injection is only available for adults in the US, while the Pfizer vaccine is available for those over the age of five.
On Wednesday, Moderna announced the successful completion of Phase 2 and 3 clinical trials of a COVID-19 vaccine in children aged six months to 17 years.
Vaccinations, which are four times less than in adults, were found to be about 40 percent effective in preventing infection from the Omicron variant — similar to the levels of protection it provides adults.
“We are very excited about the data because we reached the primary endpoint, which was a neutralizing antibody that is just as good as what we have seen in adults, with boosters, with teenagers,” Bansel said.
However, not all experts agree that vaccines for such young children are needed to end the pandemic.
Children are at low risk from COVID-19, and there is a growing body of evidence showing that they are not as susceptible to the disease as adults.
The CDC reports that children account for less than 0.1 percent of Covid deaths in the US since the pandemic began.
A study last year by the University of Utah found that 50 percent of Covid cases in children are asymptomatic. The study was done before a milder version of Omicron was available, which means the risk of children even experiencing symptoms is now likely lower.
Children may also be less likely to spread the virus when they become infected: a German study found that they shed just 25 percent of viral particles than adults.
Data released by New York State officials late last month also showed that the vaccine was only 12 percent effective in preventing Covid infections in children aged five to 11.
There is also the risk of myocarditis, which, although limited, was higher in younger recipients of Moderna than with any other vaccine.
Last year, European countries such as Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Denmark and France either restricted or stopped the use of the Moderna shot in people aged 30 and under due to concerns that recipients would develop a rare inflammation of the heart.
Instead, officials in these countries recommended that young people get the Pfizer vaccine.
However, Pfizer has faced some challenges in distributing its vaccine to the youngest age groups.
The company had to change the Covid vaccination schedule for the youngest children from two to three doses, as the smaller doses of three micrograms were almost completely ineffective for children aged three and four.
The New York-based firm also submitted data on Covid vaccinations for children under the age of five to regulators, although the approval process was put on hold earlier this year.