The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria illegally declared independence in 1990.
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Moldova's pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria could request or hold a referendum on its annexation to Russia at a recently announced congress of Transnistrian MPs scheduled for February 28.
The pretext for such an appeal would be the alleged need to protect Russian citizens and “compatriots” of Transnistria from threats from Moldova or NATO or both.
The population of the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria, which illegally declared independence in 1990, is around 470,000 people. Around 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed there.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is conducting disinformation operations against Moldova similar to those carried out by Moscow before its invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.
In the most dangerous scenario, Russian President Vladimir Putin could declare Russia's annexation of Transnistria during his planned speech to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 29, although this seems unlikely, according to ISW.