After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, the issue was raised by the United States. “Who will be next?” asked Albanian Ambassador to the UN Ferrit Hoxha after Moscow entered the war. Moldova, Georgia, Finland … Several countries are particularly worried about Russia’s ambitions in Europe for fear that their own territorial integrity will be violated.
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These risks are known in France. But Emmanuel Macron is determined “To support our partners in the eastern neighborhood” of the European Union “against any attempt at tension and destabilization”, according to remarks made to the leaders of Georgia and Moldova on Saturday, two days after the start of the war in Ukraine. Franceinfo explains why these countries feel threatened.
Moldova
Russia is already “military presence in a Moldovan region called Transnistria”remember franceinfo Julien Theron, Professor of Conflict and International Security at Science Po Paris. Transnistria is a self-proclaimed pro-Russian micro-state located in the eastern part of Moldova. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1990, this predominantly Russian-speaking region proclaims its independence, recognized almost exclusively by Moscow, follow The diplomatic world (paid item).
The country that shares more than 900 km of border with Ukraine, where Moldova is located strategically. today military base Russian is located near the Ukrainian city of Odessa. Since the Russian attack on February 24, the country has closed its airspace.
In this way, Russia’s ongoing offensive in Ukraine could spread to Moldova, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told France Inter on Friday. “worry” from “Russian drift on matters of intervention. “
Russia’s aggressive expansion may also revive old secessionist impulses. In the southern part of Moldova, the Gagauzia Autonomous Region already wanted to join the Russian Customs Union in 2014, not the European Union.
Georgia
The risk also lies on the other side of the Black Sea, in Georgia, another former Soviet country, according to Elysée. As in Moldova, two The pro-Russian micro-states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia declared independence between 1991 and 1993. During the second war in South Ossetia in 2008, the Russian army repulsed the Georgian army and officially recognized its independence. The Russian military defends them by allowing secessionists to form a government, print their own currency, raise taxes and maintain the armed forces without being recognized in practice by the entire international community. in 2015 IOssetia He asked from the south even his attachment to Russia.
According to the President of Georgia, Salome Zurabishviliinterviewed about France Inter, “Ukraine will not disappear as a state, and that is what Russia had to learn in the war with Georgia.” Georgia “lost 20% of its territory, this is a daily tragedy”. It is pro-Russian pressure “daily on the busy line” and at the border, with hostages “every two days”.
This pressure did not stop Georgia “To follow the European, Euro-Atlantic path of economic growth and democratization”. At the risk of straining Russia, which sees a loss of influence in the region. But the president is clear: “Europe must open the door” Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, not to mention the Western Balkans, she confirmed of France 2 on Tuesday. Subsequently, on Wednesday, the chairman of the Georgian Dream party, Irakli Kobakhidze, announced at a press conference that “Decision to apply immediately for EU membership”.
The Baltic States and Poland
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were under Soviet rule for a long time, after a short period of independence between the two world wars and until the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Poland held its first free elections in 1989, accelerating the fall of the communist regime. Since then, relations with Moscow have been delicate. Following the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, NATO has decided to deploy multinational battalions in Poland and the Baltic states, which were recently reinforced within the Response Force.
According to Poland, Vladimir Putin’s ambitions in 2022 may exceed the invasion of Ukraine. “Started in Georgia, now Ukraine, the next target could be the Baltic countries, Poland, Finland or other eastern flank countries,” warned the Polish prime minister about Western France, Saturday. Since the beginning of the attack, Lithuania has declared a state of emergency and called for the activation of NATO’s Article 4, which provides for urgent consultations if a member of the alliance is threatened. Meanwhile, the Latvian parliament has passed legislation that allows volunteers to fight alongside Ukrainians, according to International mailwithout risking prosecution upon their return.
The Prime Minister of Lithuania Ingrida Simone, together with the Prime Ministers of Latvia and Estonia, sent an open letter to the leaders of the world’s largest social media groups, asking them to prevent the spread of Russian disinformation about the war in Ukraine. these platforms. Last week, the three Soviet-era Baltic states banned some Russian and Belarusian channels, accusing them of broadcasting propaganda to justify the war against Ukraine.
Finland
Finland has been a NATO partner since the mid-1990s – participating in summits and joint maneuvers – but has not been formally agreed, largely so as not to irritate the Kremlin. This country, which has a common border of 1,340 km with Russia, also joined the European Union in 1995. “Finland’s geopolitical situation leaves no room for recklessness, especially nowsummarized in franceinfo Helena Petajsto, journalist for MTV in Helsinki. “TIt’s calm here, but we don’t know if it’s calm before the storm. “
For the first time, an absolute majority (53%) of Finns voted in favor of the military alliance, according to a poll published on Monday by public television Yle. The petition also collected 50,000 signatures in less than a week, leading to an automatic referral to parliament. The threat from Moscow motivates the Finns less “Actions of the Russian army against Ukraine”analyzes Charlie Saloni-Pasternak, a researcher at the Institute of International Relations, interviewed by The world (paid article).
The accession of Finland (but also Sweden) would be a matter of deep irritation for Moscow. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also confirmed that they have joined NATO “there will be serious military and political consequences”. In any case, the country decided on Monday to send deadly weapons to Ukraine, including 2,500 assault rifles, 1,500 missiles and ammunition.