The Russian invasion of Ukraine is of great concern to the governments of countries that Russian President Vladimir Putin considers to be under his influence: there is concern that Putin may choose not to stop with Ukraine and move his own troops to other territories.
“All my friends came up with a plan,” says Tatiana (name changed), 25 years old and living in Chisinau, the capital of Moldova, a small and poor country that shares a long border with Ukraine. Until 1991, Moldova was part of the Soviet Union, and today a small part of its territory is occupied by the selfproclaimed proRussian republic of Transnistria. “It’s something that always keeps you on the alert. You go out in the evening, have a beer, but you always think there: what if they attack Moldova? We have to be ready, says Tatiana.
Politicians and activists in Moldova believe that fear was the fundamental factor that drove Moldovans to accept the huge number of Ukrainian refugees: in short, they fear that they will be the next ones to find themselves in a similar situation.
Many begin to plan a possible trip by dealing with very specific matters. For example, Tatiana said that her mother started the procedure for passporting a cat, because animals can only enter the European Union with a document confirming the vaccinations.
One of the main streets of Chisinau (Valentina Lovato / Il Post)
Over the past two centuries, Moldova has almost always lived under Russian rule, first tsarist and then Soviet.
Chisinau was almost completely rebuilt after World War II in accordance with the dictates of Soviet architecture, and on the wide boulevards surrounded by square blocks, Russian is often spoken, the second most widely spoken language in the country after Romanian. Vladimir Putin’s Russia has extensive ties to the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova, which won two of the last three parliamentary elections and voted for the president in 20162020.
Some residential buildings in Chisinau (Valentina Lovato / Il Post)
After the surprising victory of proEuropean Maja Sandu in the last presidential election, Russia reacted by raising gas prices, which have so far been calmed down by good relations between the two governments, and by increasingly threatening statements. on a further approach to the European Union. This approach actually happened: in October 2021, the European Commission lent Moldova 60 million euros to deal with the rise in Russian gas prices: in fact, it was a contribution to pay Moldovans’ bills.
A few days after the invasion of Ukraine, Sandu officially demanded that Moldova become a candidate country for EU membership.
Facade of the Moldovan Parliament with the flag of Moldova and the European Union (Valentina Lovato / Il Post)
According to some analysts, Russia could try to do in Moldova what it probably failed in Ukraine: invade the country to quickly impose a puppet government supported by proRussian parties. Or maybe use the territory of Moldova to open a new front in the war with Ukraine from the south.
At the moment, Russian forces are about 150 kilometers in a straight line from the border with Moldova. On the one hand, the occupation of the country would allow Russia to control the corridor that runs to the borders of Romania, ie the European Union; on the other hand, it would involve an excessive expansion of Russian military operations, which already in Ukraine are struggling with serious military errors and problems with the protection of supply lines.
Not everyone agrees that Moldova is in real danger of an invasion. In a very narrow circle of foreign officials and diplomats living in Chisinau, there is a trend according to which Russia would not be interested in occupying Moldova, a country poor in natural resources, without an industrial or tourist tradition, whose brightest minds emigrate. systematically to Europe.
Even the Moldovan government itself seems to share the same reasoning, at least publicly. “We see no reason why Moldova is becoming a target of military aggression,” Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu said last week.
Other analysts believe that Putin has long since stopped thinking in terms Western Europe considers rational, and that it has become almost impossible to predict his next moves. In any case, the invasion of Russian forces is considered a concrete possibility by several Moldovans who talk about suitcases prepared in the event of a sudden attack and general difficulties in normal and ordinary life.
“Even if we do not shoot and no bombs reach our head, all this turmoil and this war does not calm us down,” explains Iulia Sestakowski, rector of the dormitory in Căușeni in the south of Moldova, completely converted into a room for refugees arriving from Ukraine: we can expect anything from the moment. ” Căușeni is located just 15 km from Transnistria and 90 km from Odessa, Ukraine’s main Black Sea port, which is allegedly one of the next Russian military targets in Ukraine.
(Valentina Lovato / Post)
However, even in Moldova, there are those who simply do not see the threat because they are conditioned by Russian propaganda. “Two weeks ago my family gathered for their birthday and the situation was very tense,” said Valentina Munteanu, a Moldavian university student who has been living and studying in Italy for many years. “My relatives who remain in Moldova are divided into those who are worried and those who keep saying that it is all untrue. The older they get, the more difficult it is to break away from the proRussian mentality, also because they are used to watching Russian TV and therefore consider Putin a positive person. “
Moldovans, who are used to searching for information from television or newspapers, have little choice. Independent Moldovan media are sparse and have little resources. Several private TV channels are affiliated with proRussian parties or entrepreneurs. “These channels rarely talk about the war in Ukraine and don’t even show photos of the bombings,” Moldovan media expert Anastasia Nani recently told Columbia Journalism Review.
Younger people, especially in cities, learn about Telegram, a social network that is hugely popular in Eastern European countries and more difficult to control than newspapers and television. “We have journalists who manage private channels and select news with a series of links every day: if a young Moldavian follows the news, he does it this way,” says Teodora Druchek, 18, lives in the center of Chisinau. and in a few months he will start his studies in The Hague, the Netherlands. “Among my friends, I don’t know anyone who supports Putin.”
Sometimes the awareness of young people that they live in a parallel reality results in cynical sarcasm of memes or jokes about war.
“In the event of a Russian invasion, the Moldovan government would be forced to use tanks to hold back Russian forces. At this point, the Moldovan army could respond: “Which of the two should be used?”, Says Druchek with amusement. The Moldovan army is one of the smallest and most backward in the region and would have very little ability to defend itself in the event of a possible Russian attack.
Teodora Druchek (Valentina Lovato / The Post)
Much less than an invasion would be enough to destabilize Moldova. For example, in the case of the Russian occupation of Odessa, the Moldovan authorities expect an influx of nearly a million people a month, compared to the approximately 360,000 who have arrived so far. There is a perception among those involved in the reception in Moldova that the current system will collapse, creating serious problems for Maja Sandu’s proEuropean government, with a possible step back in Moldova’s approach to the European Union.