Economy. Global economic growth is likely to be lower this year than the year before. However, the reversal of the trend may occur at the turn of the year, predicts the IMF.
Washington. Despite the fallout from the war in Ukraine and persistently high inflation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not expect the global economy to slip into recession this year. Growth will slow from 2022, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. However, a slide into recession must be avoided.
According to Georgieva’s assessment, the IMF’s next economic forecast at the end of January will not result in a significant change in relation to the most recent forecast of last October. At that time, the IMF expected global economic growth of 2.7% in its 2023 World Economic Outlook. Last year, the IMF assumes an increase in global economic output of 3.2%.
In the US, the Washington-based institution does not want to rule out an economy in retraction for this year. If the world’s biggest economy goes into recession, it should be soft, said IMF chief Georgieva. Globally, she expects a bottoming out this year, at the turn of the year 2023/24, the trend reversal could be successful. Of course, 2023 will be another tough year.
Robust job markets
On a positive note, Georgieva noted that labor markets are robust in many countries. “As long as people have jobs, they consume, even if prices are high.” It helped in the end. Furthermore, the effects of oil prices on the economy were not as severe as feared.
China also plays a very important role: moving away from the Covid-zero strategy by abolishing tough measures to contain the virus should lead to China becoming a driving force of the global economy again, Georgieva said. In 2022, however, China’s economy was “very disappointing”. For China’s better development, it is now crucial that the world’s second-largest economy does not fall back into the crown’s harsh policy. (APA/DPA-AFX/Portal)
(“Die Presse”, print edition, 01/14/2023)