Tropical cyclones will double in frequency and associated maximum wind speeds could increase by about 20 percent by 2050, according to a new study published today in Scientific Advances.
According to the research, human-caused climate change will cause these meteorological phenomena to increase in intensity and frequency, endangering large parts of the world.
The analysis found that the frequency of the strongest cyclones (Category 3 or higher) will double globally due to climate change, while the weakest and tropical storms will become less frequent in most regions of the planet.
The exception will be the Bay of Bengal, where researchers have noticed a decrease in the frequency of these intense events, the text says.
It also indicates that many of the most vulnerable locations will be in low-income countries.
It also warns that countries where tropical cyclones are relatively rare will be at greater risk in the coming years, including Cambodia, Laos, Mozambique and many Pacific island nations like the Solomon Islands and Tonga.
In general, Asia will see the greatest increase in the number of people exposed to these phenomena, with millions affected in China, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam.
To test these projections, an international group of scientists developed a new approach that combines historical data with global climate models to create hundreds of thousands of “synthetic tropical cyclones.”
By creating a very large, computer-generated dataset of these weather events with life-like characteristics, the researchers were able to project the occurrence and behavior of climate change around the world for decades to come, even in regions where they are currently scarcely produced.
Contrary to these predictions, Dr. Ivan Haigh, associate professor at the University of Southampton in England, said the new tropical cyclone dataset will go a long way in mapping flood risk changes in the most vulnerable regions.
They not only help governments and organizations better assess risk, but also support the development of risk mitigation strategies to minimize the impact and loss of life.
taken from Prensa Latina