An “extreme heat belt” will form in the Midwest by 2053, resulting in over 100 million Americans regularly experiencing days hotter than 125°F, according to a new study.
The intense heat belt will cover a stretch of land from the Appalachian Mountains of western Kentucky and Tennessee to eastern parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska and most of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
Parts of the Atlantic coast from Georgia to Delaware in the north will be similarly affected, as will parts of Florida, southern California and Arizona.
The study was released by the New York City-based First Street Foundation as part of an ongoing series of reports designed to show Americans how their homes may be affected by climate change. Previously, the group published studies showing expected risks of flooding and fire damage.
The report comes after a devastating heatwave killed at least 19 people this year and left the nation ablaze throughout July, according to Fox News.
The end of a summer was also marked by a series of unprecedented fires and floods that have claimed dozens of lives across the country.
An “extreme heat belt” will form in the Midwest by 2053, resulting in over 100 million Americans regularly experiencing days hotter than 125°F, according to a new study
The map shows those parts of the country that will face at least one day of temperatures above 125°F in 2023. In 30 years, much of the Midwest will be affected
The study shows that while eight million Americans are now exposed to extreme heat at some point a year, in 30 years that number will increase to 107 million people who will be exposed to temperatures greater than 125°F at least once a year.
Five major metropolitan areas will face these extreme heat hazards, including St. Louis, Kansas City, Memphis, Tulsa and Chicago.
According to the study, today’s hottest temperatures, which currently hit the country for about seven days a year, will be present across most of the country for about 18 days a year in 2053.
Outside the heat belt, parts of the West Coast, Gulf Coast and southeast Atlantic Coast will face days with temperatures dangerously above those those regions are used to.
In Miami-Dade County, Florida, for example, the seven hottest days from today — above 103°F — through 2053 will be present for about 34 days a year.
The study found that while the heat belt is not typically a region associated with extreme heat, its inland location, where there are “no coastal influences to mitigate extreme temperatures,” means it will suffer seriously. (Picture from a picture agency)
Because residents in many of the affected regions are “unaccustomed to warmer weather compared to their normal climate,” they will face significant health risks from extreme heat, according to the report
First Street produced the study by examining current greenhouse gas levels in conjunction with address-specific data to predict temperature trends.
They looked at factors as granular as tree cover in neighborhoods, proximity of homes to parking lots and sidewalks, elevation, and proximity to bodies of water.
The study found that while the heat belt is not typically a region associated with extreme heat, its inland location, where there are “no coastal influences to mitigate extreme temperatures,” means it will suffer seriously.
Because residents of many of the affected regions are “unaccustomed to warmer weather compared to their normal climate,” the risks they face from extreme heat are significant.
The study found that in June 2021, a heatwave in Portland, Oregon that saw temperatures soar to 116°F over five days — 20°F above typical highs — resulted in the deaths of 60 people. An extreme heat event of 2053 temperatures spanning much of the Midwest would likely result in a significantly higher number of deaths and hazards.
Although most climate change models tend to focus on annual averages, First Street founder Matthew Eby said it’s important to show the expected extremes of climate change to show the severity of real-world hazards.
“Rising temperatures on annual averages are widely discussed, but the focus should be on the extent of the extreme tail events expected in any given year,” Eby told Bloomberg.
The foundation released a tool alongside the study that allows people to enter their address to determine the risk factors their homes will face in the decades to come.
A home in Kentucky destroyed by the unprecedented floods that devastated the state in July
The study was released on the same day that a new poll found the number of Americans concerned about climate change has fallen in recent years.
The poll, compiled by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, found that while 35 percent of American adults are very or extremely concerned about how climate change will affect them, that number is down 9 percent from 2019.
The number of people who said they weren’t concerned about the effects of climate change on them increased by 7 percent.
The stunning new climate change data comes as the US has been hit by a series of extreme weather events, including unprecedented flooding that devastated communities across the country.
In June, severe flooding ravaged Yellowstone National Park in Montana and Wyoming, altering the landscape of the iconic preserve and leaving thousands of locals stranded and evacuated.
In just one week in July, three floods considered to be unique events in a thousand years hit St. Louis, Missouri, causing at least $10 million in damage in Illinois and killing at least 39 people in Kentucky.
Flooding also hit West Virginia and Tennessee, and just last week the Las Vegas Strip was inundated as desert rains battered the casino city.
How communities could mitigate future temperature extremes to stay safe during extreme heat
As severe heat events are expected to continue and become more extreme in the coming years, communities will be forced to adapt in ways other than simply turning up the air conditioning. According to a July BBC report, a number of communities around the world are already adopting the following measures:
- Painting roofs, streets, walls, sidewalks, and parking lots white helps keep things cool. Refinishing what would normally be a heat absorbing and radiant black with reflective white across an entire city could significantly reduce unnecessary heating bills
- Building waterways in cities and towns can do a lot to lower air temperatures in the area. Moving water absorbs heat without radiating it, while the evaporation process lowers the ambient temperature
- Planting more trees in cities not only provides invaluable shade, but canopies high above the ground reflect the sun and keep the streets cool. When the sun hits a tree’s leaves, water contained within them evaporates in a process known as “evapotranspiration,” causing surrounding areas to cool
- The principle of evapotranspiration can be enhanced by greening the roofs of buildings. Grass coverings and gardens on roofs would also serve the same purpose as painting a roof white and reduce the sun’s ability to heat buildings