CNN –
In a remarkable day and a half, Russia faced reality An armed uprising loomed, with President Vladimir Putin pledging to punish Wagner militants marching towards Moscow and seizing towns along the way – before a sudden deal with Belarus seemed to defuse the crisis as fast as it arose.
But much remains uncertain, and experts warn that the rare uprising is unlikely to go away anytime soon without future ramifications.
Putin must now deal with the aftermath of the greatest challenge He has lost his authority since taking power in 2000 after a dizzying series of events that the world was watching closely – and nervously – and Ukraine cheered.
The outspoken Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is apparently sent to Belarus unharmed, but he may have painted a target on his back like never before.
Here’s what we know.
Prigozhin, the bombastic Wagner Group boss, on Saturday agreed to leave Russia for neighboring Belarus in a deal apparently brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
The deal includes Prigozhin withdrawing his troops from their march towards the capital, a Kremlin spokesman said on Saturday.
The criminal charges against him will be dropped, the spokesman said. The Wagner fighters will not face a court case for their involvement in the uprising, but will instead sign contracts with Russia’s defense ministry – a move Prigozhin previously rejected as an attempt to line up his paramilitary force.
Alexander Ermochenko/Portal
On June 24, Wagner fighters leave the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, which they had briefly occupied.
Wagner troops previously claimed they had seized key military installations in two Russian cities; On Saturday, video authenticated and geolocated by CNN showed Prigozhin and his troops retreating from one of those cities, Rostov-on-Don.
It is not clear where Prigozhin is now. The Kremlin does not know anything about his whereabouts, the spokesman said on Saturday.
The crisis in Russia erupted on Friday when Prigozhin accused the Russian military of attacking a Wagner camp and killing its men – and vowed to retaliate with violence.
Prigozhin then led his troops to Rostov-on-Don and claimed to have seized control of key military installations in the Voronezh region, where a clash between Wagner units and Russian forces appears to have occurred.
Prigozhin claimed it was not a coup but a “march of justice.” But that did little to appease Moscow. According to Russian state media, a senior security official described Prigozhin’s actions as a “staged coup.”
Pavel Bednyakov/Sputnik via AP
Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses the nation June 24 following an uprising led by Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The Russian Defense Ministry denied attacking Wagner’s troops, and Russia’s Internal Security Forces launched a criminal case against Prigozhin.
Then came a remarkable nationwide speech by Putin.
In a speech broadcast across Russia on Saturday morning local time, a visibly angry Putin vowed to punish those “who are on the path to treason.”
Wagner’s “betrayal” was a “stab in the back of our country and our people,” he said, comparing the group’s actions to the 1917 Russian Revolution that overthrew Tsar Nicholas II in the middle of World War I.
Tension reigned locally as civilians in Voronezh were urged to stay home. Meanwhile, Moscow tightened its security measures across the capital and declared Monday a non-working day. Photos show Russian forces in body armor and armed with automatic weapons near a highway outside Moscow.
All signs pointed to an imminent armed confrontation in the capital, while rumors and uncertainty circulated.
Then the short-lived mutiny ended almost as suddenly as it began, and the deal with Belarus seemed to quench the fire—at least for now.
Much remains unclear, such as what will happen to Prigozhin’s role in Wagner and the Ukraine war and whether all of his fighters will be committed to the Russian military.
The Kremlin spokesman said on Saturday he “cannot answer” what position Prigozhin will take in Belarus. Prigozhin himself has given few details about his agreement to halt the advance on Moscow.
The Wagner group is “an independent combat company” with different terms and conditions than the Russian military, retired US Army Major Mike Lyons said Saturday. For example, Wagner fighters are better fed than military men, so full assimilation would be difficult.
“Maybe some will chip off,” he added. “These people are loyal to the man Prigozhin, not to the country, not to the mission. I think we have many more questions that are not currently being answered.”
03:58 – Source: CNN
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The danger has not yet been averted for the Wagner boss either, experts say.
“Putin does not forgive traitors. Even if Putin says, ‘Prigozhin, go to Belarus,’ he’s still a traitor, and I don’t think Putin will ever forgive that,” said Jill Dougherty, a former CNN Moscow bureau chief and longtime expert on Russian affairs.
It’s possible that Prigozhin “gets killed in Belarus,” she added — but it’s a difficult dilemma for Moscow because as long as Prigozhin “has any kind of support, he’s a threat wherever he is.”
Putin, too, now faces real problems.
Several experts told CNN that while the Russian president survived the standoff, he now seems weak – not only to the world and his enemies, but also to his own people and military. That could pose a risk if there are skeptics or rivals within Moscow who see an opportunity to undermine Putin’s position.
“If I were Putin, I would worry that people on the streets of Rostov would cheer for the Wagner people when they left,” Dougherty said.
Alexander Ermochenko/Portal
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin in the back seat of a vehicle leaving Rostov-on-Don, Russia, June 24.
Video geolocated and verified by CNN showed cheering crowds as Prigozhin’s vehicle left Rostov-on-Don. The vehicle stopped when a person approached and shook Prigozhin’s hand.
“Why are average Russians on the street cheering people who just tried to stage a coup?” said Dougherty. “It means they might support her or like her. Whatever it is, it’s really bad news for Putin.”
01:46 – Source: CNN
The video shows Prigozhin leaving the Russian military headquarters
Prigozhin has known Putin since the 1990s and earned the nickname “Putin’s chef” after securing lucrative catering deals with the Kremlin. But the Russian-backed separatist movements in Ukraine in 2014 laid the groundwork for Prigozhin’s transformation into a warlord.
Prigozhin founded Wagner as a seedy mercenary force fighting both in eastern Ukraine and increasingly for Russian-backed causes around the world.
Wagner came into the limelight during the Ukraine War, as combatants appeared to be making tangible advances where regular Russian troops failed. However, his brutal tactics are believed to have resulted in a high number of casualties.
As the war dragged on, Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership engaged in a public feud. The Wagner chief blamed the military for failing to supply ammunition to his forces and bemoaned the lack of success of the regular military units on the battlefield.
He has repeatedly criticized their handling of the conflict and described himself as ruthless and competent in comparison.
Prigozhin has always been careful to blame Russia’s military leadership, not Putin, and has defended the reasons for the war in Ukraine.
Until the uprising began on Friday.
In a notable statement, Prigozhin said that Moscow invaded Ukraine under false pretenses from the Russian Defense Ministry and that Russia was actually losing ground on the battlefield.
Steve Hall, a former CIA chief of Russia operations, said even seasoned Russia observers were surprised by recent events.
“Everyone is puzzled,” he told CNN. “The only meaning I can make of a day like this is that there are two guys who found themselves in untenable situations and needed to find a way out.”
Hall said Prigozhin may have felt he had bitten off more than he could chew as his column of troops marched toward Moscow. But at the same time, Putin faced the very real prospect of having to defeat some 25,000 Wagner mercenaries.
Deploying Prigozhin to Belarus was a face-saving move for both sides.
But Hall said Putin will end up worse off and emerge weaker.
“Putin should have seen it coming literally months ago. We’ll see how it goes. I don’t think the story is over yet,” Hall said.