This month, two senators from states with little in common and at opposite poles of the country found each other: Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire and Mark Kelly of Arizona, who teamed up to push through a gas tax holiday.
Their bill, the Gas Price Reduction Act, which suspends the 18.4 cents per gallon federal tax, soon found two other active sponsors: Senators Rafael Warnock of Georgia and Katherine Cortez Masto of Nevada.
The gas tax holiday may face dim prospects, but the fact that four of his top supporters ended up as the four most vulnerable Democratic senators in this November’s midterm elections highlights how eager they are to ring a populist bell that could help save them. their work.
While the focus of the midterms so far has been on the battle for the House of Representatives and the interstate fight for redistricting, a fragile Democratic majority in the Senate is also playing a role.
Collectively, the four most-at-risk Democratic senators – Mr. Warnock, Mr. Kelly, Ms. Cortez Masto and Ms. Hassan – are neither national stars nor senior members of the leadership. They are not vulnerable because of the policies they have or have not adopted. Rather, they are taking up positions in states on the battlefield in a year of hostile political weather for Democrats, with rising inflation, voter anger at the ruling party, and President Biden’s declining job approval.
Even though the president won all four states in 2020, his margins were so small that small shifts in party enthusiasm or the loyalty of swing voters, especially suburbanites, could lead to a Republican victory.
Mr. Warnock, Georgia’s first black senator, and Mr. Kelly, a former astronaut, are defending seats in longtime Republican strongholds that Mr. Biden has ceded by less than a percentage point. Ms. Cortez Masto, the first Hispanic senator, is seeking re-election in a state where disapproval of the president is registered at 52 percent of the population. recent poll.
Even in New Hampshire, where Mr. Biden won by seven points, Republicans feel an opportunity to oust Ms. Hassan, the former governor, after the recent Poll in New Hampshire showed that less than one in five residents believe that the country is moving in the right direction.
The climate of 2022 could still change. Galloping inflation may ease. The confirmation of a black woman in the Supreme Court or the removal of the right to an abortion by the court can encourage Democrats. And with much of the Republican Party being held captive by Donald Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen, GOP candidates who make it through tough primaries may prove too controversial to win. Democrats also hope to win Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
But history is not in favor of the Democrats. The party that owns the White House almost always suffers intermediate losses. Even landmark laws — Barack Obama’s health care reform or Ronald Reagan’s signature tax cuts — did not a big difference. Intermediate voters tended to be more motivated by economic conditions or a desire to contain the ruling party.
“Individual candidates and the races they run in matter, but history tells us that the political environment is the most significant factor in the runoff,” said Kyle Kondik, an analyst at the University of Virginia’s non-partisan Policy Center.
Here’s a look at the most vulnerable Democratic senators.
Georgia: pastor and former football star
Mr. Warnock calls himself “the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate to be re-elected.” He won his 2021 runoff seat thanks to a high turnout of blacks and a no-turnout of some Republicans after Mr. Trump hyped election fraud.
But Georgia is still a right-wing state, and the disillusionment with Mr. Biden is stronger there than at home. Two public polls last month showed the president was approved for the job in the mid-30s. While Mr. Warnock underlined how the majority of Democrats in the Senate provided pandemic relief, his opponents attacked his dependence on wealthy out-of-state campaigners.
“Biden has lost those white, highly educated voters who migrated to Warnock and are ready to return to the Republicans,” said Brian Robinson, a GOP strategist in Georgia.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll showed that Mr. Warnock was statistically tied in a general election match-up with former football star Herschel Walker, who was called into the race by Mr. Trump. The women said that Mr. Walker threatened them with violence and he admitted history of mental illness. But his status among Republicans has suffered little.
Mr. Walker avoided public events and in general any but friendly media. In one interviewHe said the Democratic-proposed John Lewis Voting Rights Act “doesn’t line up with what John Lewis stood for,” even though the Georgia congressman, who died in 2020, devoted his life to voting rights. Mr Walker later complained was “totally unfair to someone like me” when asked about the trillion-dollar bipartisan infrastructure bill that is arguably the biggest achievement of Congress in 2021.
At some point, Mr. Walker may have to face Mr. Warnock, a speaker who holding a pulpit which once belonged to the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
Jason Carter, the 2014 Democratic nominee for governor of Georgia, said, “I have a football signed by Herschel Walker in my office right now, but I don’t want him to be my senator, and I’m not alone.”
Arizona: Contrasting with the Progressives
Mr. Kelly defends the seat he won in 2020, where he surpassed Mr. Biden in all 15 counties. The race is taking place in the shadow of a year-long right-wing crusade in Arizona to reverse Mr. Biden’s victory that alienated many traditional Republicans.
Among the Republican contenders, Attorney General Mark Brnovich acknowledged that Mr. Trump lost in Arizona, but he has since tried to restore confidence with the base. The Republican field also includes venture capitalist Blake Masters, who appealed to popular anger at China and the porous Mexican border, and Jim Lamon, a businessman who ran inflammatory television. Ads.
“Republican candidates are doing everything they can to outdo themselves in the state that defeated Trump,” said Tony Kani, a Democratic strategist.
Mr. Kelly has so far kept his attacks on Republicans under wraps, instead emphasizing his roots as the son of two cops and his support for popular legislation such as a gas tax holiday and a ban on congressional stock trading.
Kirk Adams, a Republican strategist, said the often fractious wings of the Republican Party in Arizona would rally around a possible nominee.
“There is now a unifying thread — anxiety and concern about the Biden administration across all factions of the Republican Party,” said Mr. Adams, a former top aide to Gov. Doug Ducey, who has been tried by anti-Trump Republicans. get into a race.
Mr. Kelly, the husband of Gabrielle Giffords, a former Congresswoman who was critically injured in a mass shooting in 2011, has sought to isolate himself, creating a contrast with progressives. He criticized Mr. Biden for not calling the record number of migrants detained at the border a “crisis.” recanted State Democratic condemnation of Senator Kirsten Sinema for refusing to change piracy rules.
Nevada: Fight over who will fight harder
A war of words over Mr. Trump’s 2020 loss is likely to revive the Senate race in Nevada, where leading Republican Adam Laxalt has made efforts to overturn Mr. Biden’s 33,000 statewide vote. He called the stolen elections a lie “hottest topic” his campaign this year. He has the support of both Mr Trump and Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader.
Ms Cortes Masto, first elected in 2016, was a protégé of Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader who died last year.
“I have always been involved in difficult races,” Ms. Cortes Masto said in an interview. “I know Mitch McConnell will continue to put millions of dollars into this race.”
Both Mr. Laxalt and Ms. Cortes Masto are former state attorneys general. Mr Laxalt battles fears of rising crime, undocumented immigrants and inflation. The state’s tourism-dependent economy has the second-highest unemployment rate in the nation at 6.4 percent.
Mr Laxalt has accused Ms. Cortes Masto for not standing up for the police and not condemning violent crimes. “Vegas will not survive if violence continues to escalate,” he said at a rally this month. “We are a tourism economy. People are afraid to come here.”
Ms. Cortez Masto, who says she helped deliver Justice Department grants to local police departments, is trying to localize her race. promotion her receipt of funding for wildfire and drought control in an infrastructure law opposed by Mr. Laxalt.
“Let me tell you that there is a huge difference between me and Adam Laxalt,” Ms. Cortes Masto said. “Every day I talk to Nevadas, hear what they need, and fight for them.”
New Hampshire: Surviving the Early Red Waves
Ms Hassan, who won her Senate seat by just 1,000 votes in 2016, appears to have had her big break when the most popular official in the state, Gov. Chris Sununu, told fellow Republicans he will not run for the Senate.
But the voters’ disapproval of Ms. Hassan, which reached 51 percent, removed a second tier of Republicans, including Chuck Morse, President of the State Senate, and Kevin Smith, City Manager of Londonderry. They joined Don Balduk, a retired army general.
Ms. Hassan, who was twice elected governor, has $5.3 million in her campaign account, much more than her competitors.
Her campaign boasts of being one of the first bipartisan infrastructure deal negotiators and providing funding for two government priorities: coastal resilience and high-speed internet (many New Hampshire residents work from home). However, Republicans point out that New Hampshire receives the fewest highway dollars of any state.
“I’d say there’s no chance, short of a disaster in our primary – which is always possible – that she could be re-elected,” said David Carney, a Republican strategist who advises Mr Morse.
Soaring fuel costs in a state with no public transportation and where most homes are heated by oil is one factor causing voter pessimism about the country’s course. On the flip side, the Supreme Court ruling in Roe v. Wade this year could infuriate New Hampshire voters, who are among the most supportive of abortion rights in the country.
Ms. Hassan has won three races across the state, including re-election for governor in 2014, a brutal midterm for Democrats. “President Obama was not popular in New Hampshire in 2014,” said Ray Buckley, chairman of the state’s Democratic Party. “She was able to win.”