Half a million people live in the Maldives, spread across more than 1,000 islands. But last weekend an election verdict was made in the picturesque archipelago that sent shockwaves around the world – particularly in the Indian Ocean region.
Mohamed Muizzu, the opposition candidate, emerged victorious from the presidential runoff election on Saturday, securing 54 percent of the vote, according to results released by the electoral commission.
Muizzu, who favors closer ties between the Maldives and China, defeated incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who is widely seen as pro-India.
“With today’s result, we have the chance to build the future of the country,” Muizzu said in a statement after his victory. “The power to ensure the freedom of the Maldives.”
The vote turned into a de facto referendum on the country’s relations with India and China.
India has deployed 75 military personnel in the Maldives. New Delhi says they are there to maintain and operate two helicopters and a plane that they donated to the country. During his election campaign, Muizzu promised to withdraw these troops from the Maldives.
“From the zero-sum perspective that often drives great power competition, Beijing is a big winner in this election,” Michael Kugelman, South Asia director at the Wilson Center, a Washington-based think tank, told Al Jazeera.
“Muizzu’s campaign plan was not just about strengthening ties with Beijing, it was also about undermining India by calling for an end to any Indian military presence in the Maldives. This is music to Beijing’s ears,” he added.
India will certainly try to maintain its influence in the Maldives as much as possible, analysts say.
After announcing Muizzu’s victory, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent his congratulations to the president-elect.
“India remains committed to strengthening the time-tested bilateral relationship between India and the Maldives and enhancing our overall cooperation in the Indian Ocean region,” Modi said on X, formerly known as Twitter.
New Delhi has maintained close ties with Male under President Solih, who took office after a landslide victory in 2018 against Muizzu’s mentor, former President Abdulla Yameen.
India has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the tourist hotspot. New Delhi also funded large and small infrastructure projects in the country.
“India will support the new democratically elected government and seek to work closely with it,” Shantanu Roy-Chaudhury, author of “The China Factor: Beijing’s Expanding Engagement in Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, and Myanmar,” told Al Jazeera.
He said the Modi government is “likely to continue its pursuit of the Greater Male Connectivity Projects” – a 6.7 km (4 mile) road project currently under construction that will connect the capital Male with Villingili island. India has provided a grant of $100 million and a credit line of $400 million to Maldives for the infrastructure initiative.
But the road ahead will not be easy for New Delhi, said Roy-Chaudhury. “Given the new government’s pro-China stance, the future of India’s influence and development projects is at stake,” he said.
Muizzu, a 45-year-old civil engineer by training, has taken aim at the imbalanced trade relationship between the Maldives and India and vowed to fix the problem.
But while trade between the South Asian neighbors is heavily biased towards India – as is often the case between a huge economy and a smaller one – the Maldives fares little better in relation to China.
India’s exports to the Maldives stood at $416 million in 2021, while the country imported $49 million from the smaller country. China, meanwhile, exported $395 million worth of goods to the Maldives and its imports amounted to $3.9 million.
Muizzu emerged as an unexpected candidate for the leadership of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) after serving as construction minister in Yameen’s government. The path to the country’s leadership opened up after Yameen, also a pro-China leader, was put behind bars on corruption charges.
Under Yameen, the Maldives received more than $1 billion in loans from China to finance huge infrastructure projects, including housing for residents of the scarce country of Male and a unique bridge connecting the congested capital with nearby suburbs and airport islands.
Analysts say the changing of the guard in Malé could represent an opportunity not only for Beijing but also for Chinese investors.
“Beijing will definitely try to get involved, although I wouldn’t overstate the impact of the election on its investment behavior,” Kugelman said.
“Even in the era of Solih, who was pro-India but not hostile to China, we saw some continued Chinese commercial cooperation with the Maldives – not at the level we saw during the Yameen era, but still substantial activity .” However, Muizzi’s victory will certainly be a strengthening, both for Chinese investors and for Chinese strategists and diplomats.”
Kugelman said the election results could be a major blow to India, both diplomatically and geopolitically, but New Delhi would not throw in the towel.
“New Delhi has no plans to raise the red flag and effectively cede the Maldives to China. “That would be completely contradictory given the intense competition with Beijing,” he said. “New Delhi will remain confident that it can continue to have some level of partnership with Male.”
As Muizzu prepares to take office on November 17, Roy-Chaudhury said the Maldives’ new leader might not completely abandon New Delhi and turn to Beijing even if he wanted to.
India, he said, will continue to emphasize its development assistance and seek to build on it.
“India and Maldives need each other.”