Alessandro De Nicola, President of the Adam Smith Society
NADEF careful, what maneuver is coming?
The problem with NADEF is that, although it is considered a prudent document, in reality it does little or nothing to solve Italy’s structural problems.
Let’s take the national debt. If there were 12-15 billion privatizations per year in 2024-25 – it is now too late for 2023 – this would mean a reduction in the national debt burden by 1-1.2% of GDP. Does it seem like little? In 3 years the expected total reduction is less than 1/2 percentage point! This would be important in two ways; saved more than a billion a year in passive interest and, above all, a signal to the markets that Italy is aware of the boulders and this would have a positive impact on the spread – not surprisingly increasing – and save us further money.
Government spending reaches record. Is the price of populism ultimately too high for the populist parties themselves?
Oh good question. I am not convinced that populist measures almost always have negative consequences in the medium term. Look at the super bonus: Conte has not had any negative consequences, on the contrary, since the budget law is not his concern, he continues to wield it as an electoral weapon for those tens of thousands of voters who still want to take advantage of it. Or think about the pension madness. Even in this NADEF, Quota 103 or the various forms of APE remains! But enough, damn it!
Does inflation really have a big impact on the budget? Don’t the higher VAT revenues compensate the state treasury?
While it is true that both VAT and excise taxes on gasoline provide benefits, they are two taxes that do not cover all government revenue while the cost to the PA increases evenly. Just think of the indexation of the majority of pensions to the ISTAT index. This means that significant spending cuts should be made, while at NADEF the spending review is expected to potentially save 300 million. 300 million! 0.013% of GDP. Light up.
Italy has stopped growing. What do you think of this government’s prescriptions?
If so, we could talk about it. When it comes to digitalization, Europe accuses us of lagging behind. We draw a pitiful veil over liberalization and competition. There is no evidence of meritocratic and more efficient reform of the Palestinian Authority. We are strong with the Golden Power, with the anti-algorithm laws (then weakened) or the taxes on extra profits (then practically abolished). The good is a legacy of Draghi’s PNRR, otherwise the vision is that of a small world of the 1930s.
He received his doctorate in political doctrines and began writing for Il Riformista in 2003. He writes about current events and politics with interviews and investigations.
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