NASA scientists have predicted when asteroid Bennu could come into contact with Earth and destroy everything within a 1,000km radius. Their mission focuses on solutions to prevent disasters.
This asteroid passes close to Earth every six years, but scientists were able to confirm that Bennu will hit the blue planet one day in September 2182.
According to Science magazine, despite the mentioned risk, NASA remains optimistic that the likelihood of the disaster occurring is low.
What do scientists know about this asteroid?
After several years of analysis, scientists from the American space agency have managed to provide certain details about the threat hovering over Earth. The Osiris-REx spacecraft reached Bennu in 2018 and followed it until 2020, allowing us to learn more about its composition, in particular thanks to a fragment of dust it was able to extract from the asteroid. It would have formed beyond Jupiter in the early days of the solar system. It could allow scientists to better understand how planets form.
According to Richard Burns, project manager for Osiris-REx at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Bennu is a kilometer wide, or one-twentieth the size of the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs. According to him, if Bennu crashes to Earth, it could destroy everything up to 965,606 km from the impact site. Enough to compare it to the power of 22 atomic bombs. Fortunately, it’s not big enough to cause the world’s extinction.
Based on the scientists’ calculations, the impact should have occurred on September 24, 2182. NASA described this probability as “extremely low probability.” The group wants to calm down so as not to panic the population.
“I don’t think we have to do anything”
Scientists are categorical, there is no reason to worry. The impact could initially only occur in the 22nd century, i.e. in a very distant time. According to a document published last month by the Osiris-REx scientific team, the probability of this asteroid hitting Earth is 0.037%.
Planetary scientist Lindley Johnson from NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office is very reassuring: “I don’t think we need to do anything about Bennu.” However, it remains one of the most threatening asteroids and will continue to be monitored.
The space agency also said new data from the same science team’s spacecraft allowed it to better model the evolution of Bennu’s orbit over time. Enough to make the work of researchers who wish to deviate from this course easier.
In accordance with observations from telescopes on Earth, the asteroid’s next flyby will occur on September 25, 2135. However, its trajectory is unclear and may vary throughout the same year.
Scientists have also considered the worst-case scenario, in which Bennu’s impact on Earth would be certain by 2135, but they remain optimistic. Johnson explained that “multiple kinetic impactors could prevent Bennu from colliding.” A feasible solution, within 50 years, he said.