According to experts, Ukraine’s partial successes in its counteroffensive against the Russian military are being overestimated.
“Individual Russian defense lines are being overcome with great losses, but so far there has never been a real breach of the dam,” said Austrian Army Ukraine expert Colonel Marcus Reisnerthe German Press Agency.
“Alarm bells should ring that after 117 days of counteroffensive, no operational breakthrough has been achieved.”
➤ Read more: Ukraine breaks Russian defense line in Bakhmut
Other topics in this article:
- Ukraine receives very little military equipment
- Terribly high losses on both sides
- Wagner fighters sent to Bakhmut, Ukraine
- Russian bloggers hide reality in front
Colonel Markus Reisner: Specialist on Ukraine for the Austrian Armed Forces.
© Image: Bundesheer/Kurt Kreibich
Ukraine receives very little military equipment
Overall, Ukraine receives very little military equipment, including to defend itself against Russian airstrikes in the interior.
“Only with increased air defense could attacks on critical infrastructure be minimized.” If the country’s electricity supply were to suffer serious damage again, the backbone of weapons production would also be broken.
“In fact, four to five freight trains fully loaded with war material were expected to arrive in Ukraine every week,” Reisner said. Although the US is very aware of the difficult situation, the EU’s perception of what is happening is inadequate. “Europe is about to lose the moment when we no longer have it under control and the situation tilts in favor of the Russians”, said the colonel.
Ukraine’s allies have only partially fulfilled their promises regarding military equipment. The effectiveness of the Leopard 2 tank, for example, is also lower than expected. Of the approximately 90 tanks of this type delivered, at least a third were destroyed or damaged.
➤ Read more: US pledges more than $1 billion in aid to Ukraine
Terribly high losses on both sides
Overall, losses on both sides were shockingly high. Reisner finds credible the figures most recently presented by the New York Times, citing US military circles, of around 160,000 Russians killed and 140,000 wounded.
On the Ukrainian side, losses were estimated at 80,000 dead and 120,000 injured. Furthermore, Kiev lost 4,500 military vehicles and Moscow lost around 12,300, the expert said, referring to the independent platform Oryx, which tries To all vehicles through photos.
➤ Find out more about current developments in the Ukraine war in our live ticker
Wagner fighters sent to Bakhmut, Ukraine
According to British intelligence experts, fighters from the Wagner mercenary force who have returned to Ukraine will be deployed around the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. This has been suggested by several reports, according to the Defense Ministry’s daily intelligence report in London on Friday.
At Bakhmut, Wagner achieved success for the invading Russian troops in battles with heavy losses in May. “His experience is likely to be particularly sought after in this sector. Many will be familiar with the current front line, having fought there last winter,” the statement said.
Wagner’s private army has been considered leaderless since the crash of a plane carrying founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and commanders in August. The group fought for a long time alongside regular Russian units in Moscow’s war of aggression against Ukraine. After withdrawing his troops from Ukraine, Prigozhin attempted an uprising against the Russian military leadership, which failed. Parts of the Wagner Army then moved to Belarus.
The exact status of the Wagner fighters is unclear, the British report said. However, it is likely that they were integrated into parts of the official Russian army or other private armies.
Andrey TroshevFormer commander of the Wagner mercenaries, now works for the Russian Ministry of Defense and is considered Prigozhin’s successor.
Russian bloggers hide reality in front
According to US experts, Russian military bloggers largely practice self-censorship and publish only a small part of their conclusions about the course of the war of aggression against Ukraine.
Some particularly critical bloggers admitted that they revealed only 5 to 15 percent of their information from the front, writes the Washington-based Institute for War Studies (ISW) in its Thursday report.
Overall, there appears to be broader self-censorship by Russia over tactical realities on certain sectors of the front. This suggests that Russian sources deliberately limited their coverage of tactical actions, particularly those with an unfavorable outcome for Russia.
On September 25, a blogger partially deleted a post about the successes of the Ukrainian army near Novoprokopivka in the Zaporizhzhia region of southern Ukraine.
According to ISW, another reported that Russian commanders routinely concealed existing grievances and problems, for example, with communications, drones, tires or the pay of fighters.
Another commander complained about the inefficient flow of information from the Russian front to decision makers, according to a blogger.
One blogger commented that certain information should not be shared and that the ability to remain silent at the right time is an important quality. Censorship or self-censorship among Russian military bloggers also affects the ability of the ISW and the West to report on Russia’s operations, the institute wrote.