AGI The article appeared in Die Welt signed by Manfred WeberChairman of the popular faction in the European Parliament and leading figure in the German CDU, has reignited the debate on the inadequacy of Europe’s missile defense system in the face of a Possible threat from Russia. Weber points out that going forward, US strategic interest appears to be, and is, increasingly focused on the IndoPacific it is necessary for the old continent to arm itself with its own “nuclear umbrella”..
The recent British offer to deploy its Sky Saber system in Poland shows the underestimation of European defense capabilities. And the “Twister” system (Timely Warning and Interception with Spacebased Theater) developed by Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain commissioning before 2030 is not to be expected and it will need radical updates to counter the new hypersonic missiles developed by Russia.
The Limits of NATO Defense
The limits ofcurrent NATO defense architecture existing on Community territory have their roots in the ambiguity that has accompanied the deployment of interceptor batteries in Romania and Poland in recent years Aegis on landas part of Phase 3 of the European Phase Adaptive Approach (Epaa).
Washington had argued that the systems were designed to protect Europe from a possible Iranian attack. However, Moscow had interpreted them as a response to its own nuclear deterrent, a reading that is difficult to challenge given that, as think tank European Leadership Network notes, Aegis interceptors are calibrated to carry intermediaterange missiles, which Iran did not then possess.
The veil of ambiguity was torn in 2015 when the deal on Tehran’s nuclear program was finalized. With the already unlikely hypothesis of an Iranian attack on Europe gone, NATO shortly thereafter clarified that “missile defense does not concern any particular country, but the threat in general from the proliferation” of ballistic technology.
Russia responded after repeated warnings in October 2016 Deployment of Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad exclave, that is, in the heart of Alliance territory. Funded almost entirely by the United States, the EPAA plan left Europeans little say amid rising tensions between Washington and Moscow over their respective missile programs. Not only that: alongside increasing tensions with the Kremlin, it is not even said that the Standard Missile3 (SM3) interceptors can effectively respond to a Russian nuclear attack.
In 2017 Markus Rose, who led the dossier during Barack Obama’s second term as Assistant Secretary of State, said he “does not believe there is a missile defense solution to Russia’s growing strategic challenge.” The SM3 were not tested under realistic conditions and the second test conducted in Poland ended in failure. Political conditions changed when the White House moved in donald trumpwhich called for greater autonomy from the European allies.
The ‘Twister’ project may not be enough
On November 12, 2019 he arrived from Brussels green light for the Twister project, developed by the Mbda consortium. Twister interceptors, similar in class to SM2 or American Patriots, can hit incoming missiles as long as they travel a maximum altitude of between 45 and 60 kilometers. It is therefore not clear how effective this system can be against the new Russian hypersonic missiles that have long since made Aegis Ashore batteries obsoletealso present on US military ships patrolling European seas.
In 2020, after Berlin’s entry into the program, Mbda guaranteed that its interceptors will be able to hit targets at an altitude of up to 100 kilometers, which is the distance from the ground to which the Russian khinzals, recently deployed, operating in Ukraine, they can detach from the missile carrying them and then glide toward the target at supersonic speeds.
The problem is that the maximum speed of the Kinzhal Kh47M2 can be up to 12 times the speed of sound (Mach 12). And Mbda claimed that Twister could hit targets “above Mach 5” without specifying how much faster. The Twister system would therefore need an update to make it competitive at least as much as the new SM6 interceptors the Pentagon has been developing in response to Russia’s hypersonic program. However, new SM6 should not be available before 2024. Europe’s challenge is therefore to be able to get ahead of America, a goal that requires unprecedented technological and economic investments.