Finland is currently facing the historic decision to join NATO. This also fuels the accession debate in Sweden.
Finland’s membership of NATO seemed unthinkable just a few months ago. In view of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, however, joining the military alliance is looming: the EU country wants to decide whether to join the western military alliance before the end of the summer.
In that context, Swedish Democrats called a last-minute meeting of the party’s executive on Monday. According to Swedish media, a decision will be made there on the recommendation made by party leader Jimmie Åkesson that the party should support Sweden’s entry into NATO if Finland joins the military alliance. On the same day, a decision can be taken as to whether there is a majority in the Swedish parliament for Sweden’s candidacy for NATO membership. So far, the four traditional bourgeois parties in parliament have been in favor, while Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s ruling Social Democrats and left-wing parties are against.
quick reaction
Recently, there have been growing signs that the government of neighboring Finland could apply for NATO membership in the coming weeks. The Nordic country with its 5.5 million inhabitants is traditionally not militarily aligned, not least to avoid provoking its neighbor Russia, with which it shares a 1,300 kilometer border. But since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, its own neutrality has been repeatedly questioned.
According to polls, since the start of the war, support for NATO membership has doubled from 30 percent to 60 percent. A government-commissioned report on national security is expected to be presented to parliament on Thursday in preparation for a vote on an application for NATO membership. “Never underestimate the ability of Finns to make quick decisions when the world is changing,” says former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb. He assumes that an application for NATO membership is “a foregone conclusion” in view of the new threat situation.
“We will have very careful discussions, but we will not take longer than necessary,” announced Prime Minister Sanna Marin. A decision will be made before the end of June. Former Prime Minister Stubb expects the application to join in May, just in time for the NATO summit in Madrid at the end of June.
imposed neutrality
In 1917, Finland declared its independence from Russia. During World War II, the Finnish army, in large numbers, repelled an invasion of Soviet troops and inflicted heavy casualties on the Red Army. The fighting ended with a peace agreement, as a result of which Finland had to cede several border areas to the Soviet Union.
The Finnish government agreed to remain neutral during the Cold War in exchange for assurances from Moscow that it would not invade. The country’s enforced neutrality, intended to placate its stronger neighbor, coined the term “Finlandization”. As a non-NATO country, Finland’s post-Cold War focus was on expanding its defense capabilities. Last week, the government decided to increase defense spending by 40% by 2026. “We were able to mobilize 280,000 to 300,000 men and women in a few days,” says former Prime Minister Stubb. In addition, 900,000 reservists could be called up.
The majority in the Finnish parliament is in favor of joining NATO. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “changed something in Europe that cannot be undone”, says Center Party deputy Joonas Könttä. Like many of his fellow parliamentarians, he has now changed his mind on the “NATO question” and advocates joining the military alliance. Only six of 200 Finnish lawmakers expressed reservations about NATO in a recent poll by public broadcaster Yle.
Open ports and threats
Like Sweden, Finland has received assurances from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that the door to the alliance will remain open. Numerous member states such as the US, Germany, Britain, France and Turkey expressed their support. “Whatever decision Finland takes, you can be sure of German support,” Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said recently during a visit to Helsinki to discuss NATO membership.
A Finnish application for NATO membership is likely to be seen by the Kremlin as a provocation. In any case, Russia classifies the expansion of the US-led alliance as a security threat. Russia cited Ukraine’s desire to join NATO as one of the main reasons for the invasion of the neighboring country.
According to Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, an accession process would take four to twelve months. During this period, Russia may try to destabilize, he warns. Experts point out that in the past, Moscow has regularly threatened Finland and Sweden with “serious political and military consequences” if they join NATO. And Finnish President Sauli Niinistö acknowledged in late March that his country’s application for NATO membership could provoke “violent responses” from Russia.
(APA/red)