NATO Slaps Putin In The Face

This week’s NATO summit dealt another blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Allies remained as united as ever against his war in Ukraine while announcing efforts to expand the alliance and increase defense spending.

The worst setback for Putin came on the eve of the summit when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan negotiated an agreement to admit Sweden into NATO after more than a year of resistance.

Erdoğan’s about-face not only lays the groundwork for expanding the borders of the Western security alliance, but also signals that the Turkish leader is moving closer to the West and away from Putin.

“He is no longer interested in being economically and strategically dependent on Putin,” said Asli Aydıntaşbaş, visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution at the Turkey Project. “I think the Russians are angry. I think the Kremlin is very angry.”

It also helped ease Turkey’s strained relations with its NATO allies and gave President Biden a key victory en route to the high-profile summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.

At the end of the summit, Biden declared that NATO was “more united than at any time in its history”.

“We will not waver,” Biden affirmed in his speech on Wednesday. “Our commitment to Ukraine will not wane. We will stand up for liberty and liberty today, tomorrow and for as long as it takes.”

Erdoğan’s endorsement for Sweden also came just days after he liberated Ukrainian fighters from the Azov regiment, a move that deeply angered the Kremlin as the POWs were to remain in Turkey until the end of the war.

Aydıntaşbaş said the release of the prisoners was an even bigger blow than the Sweden deal, which was probably expected. She estimated that the Turkish leader has now sensed that Putin has weakened – especially after the Wagner revolt – and is moving closer to Biden.

“I wouldn’t call it a fresh start, but it lays the foundation for a fresh start between the West and Turkey, and that would be a big deal,” she added. “Ultimately, Turkey is NATO’s second largest army and its migration from the West has been a major problem.”

However, Aydıntaşbaş acknowledged that Erdoğan often strikes deals to gain transactional advantage and since he does not see the Ukraine war as a binary matter, he is likely to continue playing both sides.

Erdoğan only backed Sweden after wringing concessions from the West, including increased counter-terrorism operations, more arms sales and Swedish support for Turkey’s hopes for European Union membership. Erdoğan may also have won a deal to buy long-awaited F-16 jets from Washington to modernize its air force, as the US announced a day after the Sweden deal that suspended sales would continue.

At the summit, Western allies also agreed to increase defense spending, a pledge that, if honored, would strengthen the alliance and its support for Ukraine. Members now commit to spending at least 2 percent of gross domestic product on military resources and security.

NATO has been trying in vain to enforce this obligation for years. But Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said 11 allies have now met or exceeded the target, while combined spending by Canada and Europe rose 8.3 percent last year.

“This is the biggest increase in decades,” said Stoltenberg. “And we expect that number to increase significantly over the next year.”

Putin secured a small victory in thwarting Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, with Republican presidential candidate and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley saying that Biden “made Putin’s day” by refusing to commit to a future NATO determine membership of Kiev.

But by the end of the summit, the US and Ukraine were trying to minimize the damage.

NATO has opted against quickly admitting Kiev into the alliance or setting a clear timetable for membership, a move Ukraine says will only embolden Russia and allow Moscow to use the alliance’s inclusion as a bargaining chip for peace talks.

Nonetheless, the alliance took steps to admit Ukraine, removed a procedural hurdle, established a NATO-Ukraine Council, and affirmed that Kyiv is closer than ever to membership.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who just a day earlier expressed disappointment with the accession process, said he held a “powerful” meeting with Biden on Wednesday.

“The meeting lasted at least twice as long as planned and was as meaningful as it needed to be.” Zelensky tweeted. “If protocol hadn’t stopped the meeting, we would have talked longer.”

NATO allies also announced major steps in long-term support for Ukraine this week, putting a damper on Moscow’s hopes of weakening Western support for the war.

A coalition of 11 NATO countries set a date for F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots in August; France confirmed delivery of much-needed long-range missiles to Ukraine; and the Group of Seven (G7) economic and political bloc announced a long-term security commitment for Kiev.

Russia has tried to downplay the news of the summit. The head of Moscow’s foreign intelligence service told state media outlet TASS that the summit brought “no surprise to Russia”.

But Liana Fix, Europe Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Russia’s attempts to soften the narrative have largely failed.

“From a Russian propaganda perspective, it makes sense to downplay this as much as possible,” she said. “But the facts are simply against Russia, particularly the long-term commitment of G7 members to deter Russia and undermine optimism in the Kremlin.” [hoping] Everyone in Europe gets tired.”

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The Vilnius summit showed that allies stand with Ukraine despite concerns about a sluggish counter-offensive in early June and the prospect of a prolonged war, Fix said.

“Earlier this year, the news was all about Ukraine [and] what it means for this one counter-offensive this year,” she continued. “And I think that was recognized as a kind of trap.”

This is “kind of an attempt to make it clear that the commitment is not only valid until the end of this year, but will also extend into next year.”