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Published January 19, 2024, 7:25 am ET
There could be an all-out war with Russia within the next 20 years, a senior NATO official has warned, as the bloc prepared for its biggest military exercises in decades.
“We have to recognize that it is not a given that we are at peace,” Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO's military committee, told reporters after a meeting of the alliance's defense chiefs in Brussels.
“And that’s why we have [NATO forces] “We are preparing for a conflict with Russia,” he said.
His warning came ahead of military exercises beginning next week involving about 90,000 soldiers and lasting months that were intended to prove the alliance can defend its territory up to the border with Russia.
Bauer also said that large numbers of civilians would also need to be mobilized in the event of war, arguing that alliance governments must begin planning for such massive mobilization.
“It starts there – the realization that not everything can be planned and not everything will go well in the next 20 years,” he said.
Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, warned of a possible war with Russia in the next 20 years. Anadolu via Getty Images
Others said an attack could be even more immediate. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin could attack NATO countries in less than a decade, he told German magazine Der Tagesspiegel.
Newly leaked German military documents even present a scenario in which Russia launches a massive attack in the spring of 2024 to take advantage of dwindling Western support for Ukraine, although a German official called the scenario “extremely unlikely,” according to Business Insider.
Lithuania's Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis is also calling on Europe to speed up preparations for such an attack.
“There is a possibility that Russia will not be contained in Ukraine,” Landsbergis said, warning: “There is no scenario in which things could end well for Europe if Ukraine does not win.”
Around 90,000 NATO soldiers will begin the bloc's largest military exercise since the Cold War. Getty Images
He and other senior NATO officials are increasingly concerned that their governments and private weapons manufacturers are falling behind in preparations for an attack as supplies of arms and ammunition continue to dwindle due to the conflict in Ukraine.
Russia has now tripled its military spending to 40% of the total state budget and is increasing production.
The country also rejected an American proposal to restart an arms control dialogue. Officials argued the U.S. was simply seeking a strategic defeat of Russia in Ukraine, as required by the New Start Treaty, which limits U.S. and Russian long-range nuclear weapons set to expire in February 2026, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Agustín Montañez Putin has dismissed claims that Russia could go to war with NATO as “complete nonsense”. AP
“We need to be better prepared across the entire spectrum,” Bauer said in his speech on Thursday.
“You have to have a system in place to find more people when there's a war, whether it happens or not. Then you talk about mobilization, reservists or conscription.
“You have to have access to an industrial base that is capable of producing weapons and ammunition quickly enough to be able to continue a conflict if you find yourself in it.”
In December, Putin denied President Biden's claims that Russia could go to war with NATO, calling them “complete nonsense.”
Still, about 90,000 NATO troops will begin the bloc's largest military exercise since the Cold War.
The operation, called “Steadfast Defender,” is designed specifically to prepare the alliance for a Russian invasion.
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